We could be set for another tight game between Liverpool and RB Leipzig, with the best bet suggesting to oppose goals.
Football betting tips: Liverpool v RB Leipzig
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (Betfred)
1pt Fabinho to be booked at 13/5 (Bet365)
Ah, how things can change in a few weeks.
Liverpool have had a tough time domestically since beating RB Leipzig 2-0 in the first leg, losing three and winning just one of their four games – which came against bottom side Sheffield United.
In contrast, RB Leipzig have won all four of their matches, keeping three clean sheets, with two of their wins coming against two of the better sides in Germany.
That means that this second leg is nicely poised, as if RBL can get the first goal, a seemingly fragile Liverpool side could fold under pressure.
Neutral venue could help Liverpool
Given that Jurgen Klopp’s side are winless in eight home games, losing their last six at Anfield, the fact that this second leg is to be played at a neutral venue in Budapest can only be seen as a positive for Liverpool.
The reigning Premier League champions have scored just two goals in those eight home matches, conceding 11, an incredible reverse of fortunes after going 68 home league games unbeaten.
As I talk through in my analysis of Liverpool’s performances, it has been their attack that has really let the side down.
A downturn in expected goals for (xGF) per game as the season has progressed, coupled with a bout of negative variance in their finishing has meant them firing an unusual number of blanks.
But, the fact that they have an aggregate lead here should take the pressure of the underperforming attackers, and the state of the tie could provide them some much-needed space in which to attack.
Pressure on RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig have to go for the jugular, needing to win at least 2-0 in order to have a chance of progressing, meaning they will likely play on the front foot in search of goals.
That could offer Liverpool the chance to counter-attack, something they don’t usually get the opportunity to do domestically, playing against deep-blocks week-in and week-out.
The first leg was similar in that sense, with both of Liverpool’s goals coming from errors during a counter attack, and that doesn’t at all bode well for Julen Naglesmann’s side.
We saw them get absolutely shredded by Manchester United on the counter-attack in the group stage, going down 5-0 at Old Trafford, so they are susceptible.
Patience could be key for the Germans, and selecting their moments to step up the tempo could be crucial. If they opt for a gung-ho approach from the off, Liverpool could pick them apart.
Defences likely to be on top
Despite criticism and scrutiny of Liverpool’s defence, the underlying numbers put up this season aren’t drastically different from what they managed last season when running away with the title, even with a number of different partnerships due to a horrific injury list.
That was seen first hand in the first leg, as Liverpool allowed just 0.93 xGA and no big chances to RBL despite fielding Ozan Kabak for his debut alongside Jordan Henderson.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Leipzig themselves are usually tight at the back, and will need to be here if they are to stay in the tie and give themselves a chance come the end of the match.
Both teams will be wary of the other for 45 minutes I expect, with a feeling out period likely before Leipzig get the kitchen sink ready. Ultimately, I think Liverpool will hold out and qualify, but the price of the UNDER 2.5 GOALS appeals greatly.
This landed in the first leg, and that match saw no big chances other than the two that were gifted to Liverpool, and I can see this game going in a similar way, so the 6/5 on offer with Betfred is taken.
Fabinho a solid price to go in the book
Liverpool’s defensive absences have been well-documented, but Fabinho has returned of late, and will likely occupy one of the centre-back spots in this game.
The Brazilian has seen five yellows in 20 appearances this season, but given that RBL will likely play some fast and nippy players in advanced areas like Christopher Nkunku and Dani Olmo, he could well find himself in the book again.
This would be the case even if he is playing at centre-mid, as the chances of him making a ‘professional-foul’ are high in what should be a tense affair.
We have a good referee appointment here too, with Clement Turpin of France the man in the middle. He has averaged 4.05 cards this season, and 4.75 in the UCL.
At 13/5, Fabinho to see yellow is worth a point.
Liverpool v RB Leipzig best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (Betfred)
- 1pt Fabinho to be booked at 13/5 (Bet365)
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 RB Leipzig (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (08/03/21)
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