Liverpool can secure Champions League football next season with victory over Crystal Palace and Tom Carnduff has three best bets.
Football betting tips: Liverpool v Crystal Palace
2pts Trent Alexander-Arnold to have 3+ total shots at 6/4 (Betfair)
1pt Cheikhou Kouyate to be shown a card at 9/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Cheikhou Kouyate and Jeffrey Schlupp to be booked at 70/1 (bet365)
Liverpool's season looked as if it was heading for disaster, and while there will be disappointment that they haven't come close to defending their Premier League title, a big positive will be the turnaround that now sees them in a very strong position for a top-four finish.
Roy Hodgson will mark his move away from the game with a likely final outing at Anfield as his Crystal Palace side will look to spoil the Reds' chances. Unfortunately for the visitors, it's a task that's much easier said than done and Liverpool should justify their heavy odds-on price.
There is little value delving into the outright markets though with the Reds on the -2 handicap only offering a price of 13/10. Even with the quality of the home side, it could become a cagey affair at times as they know the circumstances surrounding the game.
The one market that does appeal to me is cards, and while you wouldn't expect there to be many in a game such as this, the prices available on some Crystal Palace players are worth investigating further. Recent games have seen some players move positions and that creates value.
The first of which is the best price of 9/1 on CHEIKHOU KOUYATE to be shown a card. He has been playing as a centre-back but the return of James Tomkins from injury saw Kouyate pushed back into midfield for the defeat to Arsenal last time out.
Four of his final six games at centre-back actually brought a card, but I'm more focused on his centre midfield statistics. His two starts at centre midfield brought two fouls in each while he was carded after Tomkins came on in the comeback victory over Aston Villa.
His recent record has brought plenty of cards and his average fouls count while playing in a midfield position could bring more. 9/1 is a price that is to be expected on a player who very rarely gets booked, not one with his current form. A positional change should help this bet's chances of winning too.
At a huge 70/1, it's also worth taking KOUYATE TO BE CARDED ALONGSIDE JEFFREY SCHLUPP. He has also played in a centre midfield role in the last two games and that has brought a huge total of eight fouls - with a booking coming last time out.
We're gambling a little on him starting in this position again so it's one to check when the team news is released at 3pm but his recent games in this position have brought fouls. Playing in a central role also saw a foul in the win at relegated Sheffield United.
With Liverpool's strength throughout, Palace could struggle in the midfield and that should draw them into committing fouls. We need it to be a close enough contest for the referee to be drawn into using his cards, but Palace frustration can also play its part if the home side start to run away with it.
Finally, on the Liverpool side of things, with the Reds expected to be on the front foot throughout it's worth backing TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS at a best price of 6/4, with 11/8 available elsewhere.
The right-back has hit that tally in ten games this season, but his increased attacking output is outlined in the fact that five of those games have come in his last seven Premier League outings. That run began with the winning goal against Aston Villa.
His positioning has been that of an attacking midfielder at times and his charging runs forward have helped to contribute to this figure. Alongside an open play threat, Alexander-Arnold's ability to take set-pieces gives him extra opportunity to rack up the shots count.
With Liverpool expected to be on the front foot throughout, 6/4 on the defender hitting three shots or more looks good value - with even money available with Sky Bet on one of those efforts being on target.
The odds are heavily in Liverpool's favour here which means the outright result is one to be avoided, it won't even add much to Sunday accumulators. Instead, the value can be found in backing KOUYATE, SCHLUPP and ALEXANDER-ARNOLD to be involved.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Trent Alexander-Arnold to have 3+ total shots at 6/4 (Betfair)
- 1pt Cheikhou Kouyate to be shown a card at 9/1 (bet365)
- 0.5pts Cheikhou Kouyate and Jeffrey Schlupp to be booked at 70/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1630 BST (20/05/21)
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