Liverpool v Arsenal tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Liverpool welcome Arsenal in Saturday's late Premier League kick-off and Tom Carnduff has picked out a best bet to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Liverpool to have 19+ total shots at 7/5 (William Hill)
Liverpool perhaps wouldn't have expected to be 4th after 11 games of the Premier League season but they head into the weekend four points off the top. Defeat to West Ham last time out saw the Hammers move above them into 3rd.
Arsenal's season has improved and they now sit 5th but a goal difference of zero may leave them in a tricky position when it comes to potential European qualification further down the line - Liverpool are ahead by a huge 20 goals in this area already.
The Reds are 4/9 for victory and that's understandable but Arsenal could prove to be tricky at times given their own good form and the likelihood of them shaping up to frustrate. It should be an interesting contest in Saturday's later kick-off.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool 4/9 | Draw 18/5 | Arsenal 21/4
With Liverpool so heavily fancied for the win, the better value comes in siding with them in the stats-market and backing a selection that would have won in multiple games this season.
At a best price of 7/5, and even at the 11/8 elsewhere, taking LIVERPOOL TO HAVE 19+ TOTAL SHOTS looks a solid play given their averages and showings so far.
Liverpool have averaged 19.4 shots per home game this season with the number jumping up to 19.8 when just focusing on the Premier League. However, the games that fell short are easily explained by the averages.
It hasn't won in their last two home league games but that was because they came against Brighton (14 shots) and Manchester City (6 shots). The thing that these two sides have in common is that they don't concede many chances when on their travels.
Manchester City have conceded the fewest average shots against of any side in the Premier League when away (7.5) while Brighton are the third-lowest (11.6). Against sides further up this table, Liverpool have thrived.
Arsenal are third in the away shots against standings with an average of 17.6. Liverpool have welcomed two sides in this top-five to Anfield already and posted 27 shots against Burnley and 25 against Crystal Palace.
For Arsenal, they conceded 25 shots in their hammering at Manchester City and 21 away at Brighton. Burnley registered 18 and they've failed to win the xG battle in any of their away Premier League games this season.
With the hosts such a short price for victory, the best value comes in taking LIVERPOOL TO HAVE 19+ TOTAL SHOTS at a decent odds-against price.
Liverpool v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Liverpool to have 19+ total shots at 7/5 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1525 GMT (18/11/21)
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