Liverpool transfer news: Can Reds save season in January?
“There are big prices in the market so I am not the biggest friend of the January transfer window but if we have to react to it we will react to it.”
Jurgen Klopp had this to say early on during his Liverpool reign, not long before he decided to walk away from a deal for Alex Teixeira.
The Reds wanted to bolster their attacking options and the Shakhtar Donetsk forward was identified as a potential signing. The versatile Brazilian was initially valued at around £25m, per multiple reports, but high interest meant the Ukrainian club hiked their demands up closer to £40m.
According to The Athletic, Klopp called the valuation "ridiculous" and told the club to explore other options.
The other option ended up being Sadio Mane.
Liverpool have proved January signings can work
This wasn’t the last time the German tactician commented on how the January market isn’t the best time for buying clubs. However, when opportunities have presented themselves, Liverpool have made moves.
Virgil van Dijk joined for a club record fee in January 2018 and the Reds reacted swiftly to Spurs making a move for Luis Diaz, one of their top targets, in 2022.
Now, this wasn’t solely down to the arrival of the Dutchman but Liverpool did reach the Champions League final in 2018 with Van Dijk a key player at the heart of the defence.
Since he joined from Southampton, the Reds have won everything and have had the best defensive record in the Premier League multiple times.
Diaz, meanwhile, played a significant part in the push for the quadruple last season and was arguably the team’s biggest threat at the start of this campaign prior to his injury.
On the two occasions the Reds have spent big money in January they have had success at the end of that season. It doesn’t necessarily mean big money in the winter window guarantees anything, but you cannot simply focus on Klopp’s comments and ignore the successes.
So while the former Dortmund boss might not overtly be a fan of spending in January, when the Reds do business, it tends to be good. This will undoubtedly play a part in the club’s thinking over the next month.
Reds desperate for midfield signings
Liverpool know midfield reinforcements are required and have been for quite some time now. The issue is that every selling club knows this to be the case, so premiums are being added to all potential targets.
However, these premiums are likely going to be added to players in the summer too. Clubs are not going to forget about Liverpool’s need, so anyone with business sense would increase player valuations if the Reds showed an interest.
I've written in detail previously on four players that could help solve the chasm in Liverpool's midfield and strong World Cup showings from Moises Caicedo, Mohammed Kudus, Jude Bellingham and Enzo Fernandez will only have added both cost and competition when it comes to any pursuit Liverpool may make.
Now or then, it is going to cost the 2019/20 Premier League champions more money than they would want to spend in an ideal world.
Hidden needs in attack
With all of the focus being on Liverpool’s woes in midfield, the needs of the attack have been overlooked. Heading into the new campaign, the Reds lost three in Sadio Mane, Takumi Minamino and Divock Origi and brought in just two, Darwin Nunez and Fabio Carvalho.
The importance of those who departed can be and has been disputed. Did Liverpool really need to bring in replacements for domestic cup players? Arguably not. However, what cannot be disputed are the numbers. The Reds sold three guarantees and replaced them with two projects.
It was a risk that hasn’t yet paid off.
Injuries to Diaz and Diogo Jota have been blamed for the predicament the team currently finds itself in but the dynamic of the attack was a little off even prior to those setbacks.
Carvalho doesn’t yet have a home in the attack while Darwin is dangerous but raw. He needed to adapt, as did the team. It was a bit of give and take.
Liverpool are without real cover for either Diaz or Mohamed Salah while the system changes if Darwin leads the line in place of Roberto Firmino, with the No27 looking to get in behind while the No9 looks to drop deep and receive the ball.
Earlier on in the campaign, the Reds attempted 73 long passes per 90 - 26 more than they were averaging last season. This highlights the difference using Darwin or Firmino makes.
Furthermore, the Brazilian is out of contract in the summer but has been a key cog for the Reds this term. If he does call time on his Anfield career, Liverpool could well need two attackers and, all of a sudden, Liverpool face a major overhaul in key areas of the team.
Addressing this situation in January, as they have attempted to do so with the arrival of Cody Gakpo, could ease some of that summer pressure.
No signings could mean no Champions League
What needs to be considered is the cost of not making moves in January.
The Reds are currently sixth in the Premier League table, 15 points off the top, 10 behind Manchester City and seven off a Champions League spot.
They could stick with what they have and hope the injury misfortune of the first half of the campaign is behind them. If everyone is fit and firing, Klopp has an array of options. The risk is that not everyone is fit and firing at the same time, as has happened in previous campaigns.
If they continue to struggle with injuries, it might be difficult for Liverpool to claim a top-four spot. A season without Champions League football impacts revenue which in turn limits what they can and cannot spend in future windows.
It might be a case of Liverpool having to speculate to accumulate. They may not want to pay a premium on their top targets but if they don’t, they might not have money to spend on future targets.
The club’s gambles in previous campaigns have paid off but at some point, their luck will run out. Can they really afford to have this squad, on their improved contracts, playing Europa League football for a season?
New signings don’t automatically mean Liverpool will claim a Champions League spot, but having better players to choose from certainly helps their cause.
Bolstering the squad also improves their chances of success at Europe's top table.
Get past holders Real Madrid and they will fancy their chances, but Los Blancos and their manager, Carlo Ancelotti, do seem to have their number. Adding something or someone different might work in Liverpool’s favour.
Preparing for a summer exodus
Another thing to consider is that James Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Naby Keita and Firmino are all, at time of writing, set to depart at the end of the season.
They are not necessarily a core quartet but all, with the exception of injury-plagued Oxlade-Chamberlain, have played their part in Liverpool's success over recent campaigns. There will be voids that need filling if they do all leave.
The club may feel adding to the middle third while these three midfielders are still on the books is a waste of money, but it could help with the bedding-in process. It could be a case of short-term financial pain for long-term gains.
It means any arrival doesn’t have to hit the ground running and they can adapt ahead of a full pre-season with the team.
If they do manage to seamlessly adapt, in a similar way to Diaz last season, then the Reds have a wildcard for six months who could change the outcome of matches without the pressure of having to perform.
Will FSG throw good money after bad?
Some have suggested that current owners FSG might be reluctant to spend money with the future of the club currently up in the air. The Reds are for sale but recent reports suggest this could be a partial one as opposed to a full takeover.
Regardless of what percentage the owners are willing to part with, any potential buyer will want Liverpool to be playing Champions League football. Revenues are reliant on that fact.
It will impact the valuation of the club, so FSG have an incentive to invest in this squad to give it the best possible opportunity for success. They are not going to want to devalue their asset at such an integral stage of negotiations by having them playing outside of Europe’s premier club competition.
Unless top targets simply aren’t attainable in January, there is no reason for Liverpool not to make moves once the window opens. There is no benefit to sitting out until the summer. It isn’t now or never, but there is a risk those interested now won’t be when the season ends.
Fernandez or Bellingham won't want to join a Europa (or Conference) League club. Not when all of Europe's elite are circling. Liverpool simply cannot afford not to do business in January if they have ambitions of challenging for the title next season.