Liverpool 1-1 Newcastle: Reds now outsiders for top-four finish as Joe Willock strikes late
Liverpool's top-four hopes suffered another setback as Joe Willock netted a 95th minute equaliser for Newcastle in a 1-1 draw at Anfield.
In a week where the club's owners wanted the Reds out of the Champions League, Jurgen Klopp's side were unable to secure three points in the race to remain in it, as Willock struck from close range just minutes after Callum Wilson saw his effort ruled out for handball.
The result saw Liverpool's odds drift from odds-on overnight to 13/8 with Sky Bet on a top-four finish - as Jurgen Klopp's side may have to settle for Europa League football next season.
Mohamed Salah's strike in the third minute set the tone for what would be a highly-entertaining game, even if the scoreline suggested otherwise.
The Newcastle defence failed to clear Sadio Mane's cross into the box, and Salah did brilliantly to control and turn before rifling the ball into the roof of the net from close range.
Salah struck with what turned out to be the most difficult chance of the contest, as both sides struggled to capitalise on numerous opportunities to score.
Liverpool opted for a change of approach with Klopp going with a 4-2-3-1 as opposed to their preferred 4-3-3. Salah and Mane were joined by Roberto Firmino and Diogo Jota, with the latter taking up the CAM role. It led to a fluent attacking performance that lacked a clinical edge.
The issue for the hosts was how open it also left them through the middle and they struggled to get to grips with Newcastle's speed on the counter attack. Allan Saint-Maximin's pace and trickery caused issues for the Reds' defence but it was the nervy final moments where they struck.
Firmino, Jota, Mane, Salah and James Milner all had shots on target and that inability to convert ultimately cost them in the end, as Willock's deflected effort from inside the box found the back of the net in the final seconds.
That goal came shortly after Wilson thought he had scored the equaliser. His initial shot was saved by Alisson before he bundled the deflection across the line. However, on review, it was clear that the ball had struck his arm on the way in and, while harsh, it was rightly ruled out.
A point pushed Newcastle further away from the relegation zone, with nine points separating them and Fulham with five games remaining, while Liverpool remain a point outside the top-four ahead of West Ham's meeting with Chelsea on Saturday evening.
Can Liverpool qualify for the Champions League?
We still can't avoid the Super League talk. In a historical week for European football, Liverpool's complete disregard for the integrity of the current competitions and their own supporters rightfully led to a backlash that caused the plans to collapse less than 48 hours after they were announced.
Klopp was against it, as much as he could have been stronger in interviews as others were, and the potential disruption this could have caused would benefit the likes of Leicester and West Ham instead. As it turned out, back-to-back draws in games where they were the favourites could have played its part.
While this season has become one to forget for Liverpool, unable to retain their Premier League title in a trophy-less campaign, a spot in the top-four will be seen as a rare positive.
The good thing for Liverpool is that their fixture list is ideal. They face a tricky test against Manchester United next week but after that it's Southampton, West Brom, Burnley and Crystal Palace to finish the season.
However, there is no denying that they will view this as a massive missed opportunity. They had 22 attempts in total and nine shots on target, dominating possession, but they ultimately left with a single point from it.
Liverpool actually had more shots on target on Saturday than they did in the 7-0 victory over Crystal Palace. They also had a higher expected goals total - 2.83 v Newcastle compared with 2.77 v Palace - but suffered a completely different result.
This result will be one of the many that they look back on if they aren't in the top-four at the end of the season. They're stuttering at a stage where consistency is key - it's why Sky Bet now have them as 13/8 outsides for a top-four finish.
Even with the concerns of recent weeks, and the disappointment of today, they may represent value given the remaining fixtures. A positive result against Manchester United will surely see the odds shorten, and wins after that will lead to a heavy odds-on price.
Klopp: Liverpool 'don't deserve' Champions League spot
Klopp admits they do not deserve to be in the Champions League if they continue to play the way they did in the 1-1 draw at home to Newcastle.
“If we play like this and don’t finish games like this off, why should we play Champions League?” he said.
“We want to deserve Champions League and we don’t want to come and be cheeky, we want to earn it and with these results you don’t earn it.
“It’s all on the table so go for it. It feels close to being unacceptable but we have to accept it anyway.”
Klopp accepted the way his side performed at both ends of the pitch – although particularly up front where they had 22 shots and nine on target – meant they did not deserve to beat Newcastle.
“Very tough day – but there is no-one else to blame but ourselves,” he added.
“We created chances. The golden rule of football is you’d better use your chances. That’s what we didn’t do and that’s why Newcastle deserved a point.
“They score a goal which was disallowed the first time – we were lucky with VAR – but we didn’t even take that present and we gave them another one and it’s 1-1.”
Should Liverpool stick with that front four?
It's something that Klopp has experimented with before, but the eye-catching part of Liverpool's teamsheet was the inclusion of Firmino, Jota, Mane and Salah. A 4-2-3-1 with one of Firmino or Jota taking the striker role and the other operating as more of a CAM, with both comfortable dropping deeper to receive possession.
What it led to was a first-half where we were left confused as to how they had only scored once. Salah's wonderfully taken goal set the tone for their attacking intent inside four minutes but they failed to add despite creating numerous good opportunities.
The Reds were had racked up 1.57 expected goals (via Infogol) at the break but that doesn't take into account poor decision-making in good positions that didn't lead to a shot. Salah and Mane both had huge opportunities to strike again but bad final touches went alongside failing to even get a shot away.
The worry at that stage was the pace in which Newcastle could break forward. For all the chances they created, Newcastle could have easily had a couple themselves. It says something about the flow of the game that even then, Liverpool would have still been ahead.
Sean Longstaff's 20th minute effort with an xG of 0.21 was Newcastle's only shot on target in the first 45 minutes but, like Liverpool, their build-up play was key here. Rather than slick passing moves, Bruce's side looked to hit on the counter and it was largely working.
It was aided by an early card to Ozan Kabak, and perhaps they wouldn't see as much open space with a fully fit defensive line on their opposite side, but it will be a cause for concern if they are to work with this system more regularly. Creating chances is one thing but if they continue to be so wasteful with them, as they were today, they could easily find themselves on the wrong side of a scoreline against a more clinical side.
Perhaps Milner's introduction in place of Jota just before the hour mark was a sign of the concerns Klopp has with the defensive side of this system. While they didn't secure all three points, Newcastle's equaliser came at a stage where they had moved away from their starting formation.
Odds correct at 1440 BST (24/04/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.