Football betting tips: Europa Conference League
2pts Chelsea win to nil at 9/5 (BetVictor)
BuildABet @ 13/2
- Chelsea win to nil
- Under 3.5 goals
- Nicolas Jackson to score anytime
What a treat we have on Thursday. Chelsea head to Warsaw to take on Legia in a massive Europa Conference League clash.
I say that in jest of course, this being Europe's tertiary competition, but given Enzo Maresca's changes to his line-up at the weekend agains Brentford, it seems as though the Italian really wants to win this competition.
The irony of him resting the likes of Cole Palmer, Nicolas Jackson, Marc Cucurella and Pedro Neto for a competition that the Blues could win with their youth team (again, said somewhat in jest) won't be lost on anyone.
The Blues could finish outside the top seven in the league thanks to Maresca prioritising this competition, which has a prize of only Europa League qualification for the winner alongside an admittedly delightfully designed trophy.
Chelsea are a best price of 1/5 to make the final and 1/2 to win the tournament, which says everything you need to know about the strength of opponent.
What are the best bets?
Being frank, Legia simply aren't at the level of their visitors on Thursday. That can be perfectly summed up by the fact that as of April Chelsea have a squad with a value of £1.39 billion, which absolutely dwarfs Legia's (£36.4 million), and in fact is greater than all the Conference League sides combined.
Chelsea should win this competition comfortably on that basis alone, and while 1/2 for an away win may tempt some people in Poland, I've been banging the 'boring, boring Chelsea' drum for a while now which could throw up a nice way to boost that price.
Indeed, by adding a clean sheet alongside a Blues win we see the price jump to 9/5 which is simply too big, making CHELSEA WIN TO NIL the best bet.
Maresca has gone full Maresca-ball over the last few months after a period of crossover from the more chaotic Poch-ball, and it's resulted in more control but less action - and far fewer goals.
Across their last six games in all competitions, Chelsea's matches have seen just seven goals, with the Blues scoring five and keeping four clean sheets.
That run featured two games against Copenhagen, one against a hopeless Leicester as well as bottom half Premier League sides Tottenham and Brentford.
In that sextet of matches, Maresca's side generated an average of just 0.99 xGF per game, a paltry effort given the attacking quality at their disposal, but have limited opponents impressively, allowing just 0.71 xGA per game.
It's that latter figure that is worth hanging our hat on ahead of this game, with Chelsea's passive low-risk style leading to few opportunities for their opponents.
Legia are of course hard to assess as they haven't yet played a team anywhere near the calibre of the Blues this season, but we have seen Chelsea against this level of opponent in the Conference League so far, and they've been dominant, registering eight wins from eight, scoring 29 goals and conceding just six times.
It may not be overly convincing on the night, but the Blues should at least get a ninth straight win in the UECL, and if recent showings are anything to go by, keep their sheets clean in the process.
Team news
Cole Palmer was rested at the weekend and should return here alongside fellow benchwarmers on Sunday Nicolas Jackson, Marc Cucurella, Levi Colwill and Pedro Neto.
The Blues remain without Wesley Fofana and Romeo Lavia, but Maresca is expected to field a strong XI in Poland.
Hosts Legia will likely field the same side that won at the weekend. Marc Gual and Bartosz Kapustka are likely to be absent through injury, while defenders Jan Ziolkowski and Artur Jedrzejczyk are suspended.
Luquinhas is back fit and firing again having missed the second leg win over Molde in the last round, and should start.
Predicted line-ups
Legia Warsaw: Tobiasz; Wszolek, Pankov, Kapuadi, Ruben Vinagre; Elitim, Augustyniak, Kapustka; Chodyna, Luquinhas, Morishita
Chelsea: Jorgensen; Gusto, Chalobah, Colwill, Cucurella; James, Caicedo, Enzo; Palmer, Jackson, Neto
Odds correct at 1120 BST (09/04/25)
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