Two sides at the opposite ends of the form spectrum meet in Leeds on Saturday as Wolves travel to Elland Road. Jake Pearson has picked out two bets for the fixture.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leeds to win at 31/20 (Betfair)
There are no two ways about it, Leeds have made a dreadful start to their second season back in the top-flight of English football, picking up just one win from their opening eight matches and currently just one place outside of the relegation zone.
Second season syndrome is a lazy quantification for exactly what has happened to Marcelo Bielsa’s men this season, and there are far more plausible excuses for Leeds’ demise this term, the main one being the injuries their squad has had to contend with.
Lacking in depth as it is, key absences over the last few weeks have included arguably their three best players, last season’s top scorer Patrick Bamford, as well as Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips. Any team would miss players of this quality, never mind a team with a squad as thin as Leeds.
Bamford remains sidelined, but Raphinha should be back in the starting line-up, having been rested for the Southampton match due to international duty, and it has also been reported that Phillips is close to a return and could feature against Wolves.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Leeds 29/20 | Draw 12/5 | Wolves 9/5
These two back on the team sheet would be a huge boost for Leeds and would give them a real chance of picking up a second win and kick-starting their season.
Wolves’ season, on the other hand, certainly has kick started, winning each of their last three match, beating Southampton and Newcastle before a thrilling come-from-behind victory against rivals Aston Villa last weekend.
Wolves have been performing well all season, and even before the result came they were posting impressive underlying numbers.
They have created the fifth-most chances in the Premier League this season as per Expected Goals, and are arguably unfortunate not to be higher in the table.
The biggest issue with underlying numbers, however, is how they are now used by bookmakers. What was once an edge, has now become something of a grey area.
It is something we saw to extreme levels last season with Brighton, a side who were posting phenomenal Expected numbers, but struggling to convert into goals and points. However, they were constantly priced up like a top six team, and that seems to have crept into Wolves’ price this week.
Wolves’ average price away from home this season stands at around the 5/2 mark, and even in their last two away match, against Southampton they could be backed at bigger than 5/2, and against Aston Villa they were as big as 4/1.
The fact that this week they are 15/8 – some 10% more likely to win than they were against Aston Villa according to the layers – doesn’t sit correctly. Couple that then with the fact that Leeds are a bigger price to win at home to Wolves than they were to win at home to Everton earlier in the season, and backing a LEEDS WIN at a price of 31/20 looks the shrewd play.
Leeds v Wolves best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Leeds to win at 31/20 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1250 BST (21/10/21)
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