Leeds v West Ham free betting tips: Premier League best bets and preview
The Premier League weekend begins at Elland Road where Leeds take on West Ham. Tom Carnduff thinks the visitors could enjoy success from set-pieces.
Leeds v West Ham recommended bets
0.5pts Angelo Ogbonna to score first at 33/1
1pt Angelo Ogbonna to score anytime at 12/1
1pt Aaron Cresswell to assist 1+ goals at 10/3
1pt Rodrigo Moreno to assist 1+ goals at 3/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leeds v West Ham betting tips
- 20:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 23/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/10
A good contest to begin the Premier League weekend as Leeds welcome West Ham to Elland Road with both sides seeing mixed results in recent weeks. Marcelo Bielsa's side were beaten by Chelsea on Saturday while the Hammers lost to Manchester United a few hours earlier.
Leeds sit 14th in the table but we should still view their start as a big positive when you consider their numbers, despite the step up a division, and the tough fixture list they were handed across their opening eleven games. The Whites have already faced Chelsea, Everton, Arsenal, Leicester, Wolves, Manchester City and Liverpool.
West Ham have had an equally tough run but have the advantage of being an established Premier League club. Favoured by some for relegation at the beginning of the campaign, David Moyes' men have already hit half of a points tally that will likely keep them up given the performances of those at the bottom. Although, with 17 points after eleven games, the aim will surely be apart of the pack looking for top-six.
The Hammers are the outsiders here, with above 2/1 available on victory, but the aerial route should provide them with plenty of success. Set-piece situations have been a weak point for Leeds and this could be a game where they feel that. In a way, Leeds would have preferred Michail Antonio up front rather than Sebastien Haller.
The striker has won a huge 26 aerial duels across his last three appearances, an already impressive figure is made even better when you consider that one of those games saw him come on at half-time. We can expect to see Haller and Tomas Soucek heavily involved in this one; the West Ham midfielder has won at least five aerial duels in each of his last nine Premier League outings.
Only Leicester (6) have conceded more from set-piece situations than Leeds (5). If West Ham are to score in this game, we should expect it to be from either a free-kick, corner or a header from open play. This isn't to say that is what they are all about, far from it, but the mismatch in this area is likely to be targeted by the visitors.
While Soucek and Haller lead the way for aerial duels won, this could be a game where a centre-back strikes. Angelo Ogbonna scored in the recent win over Aston Villa and he could provide a big threat here. While he averages 0.5 shots per game, compared with Fabian Balbuena's 0.6, Ogbonna sees a much better successful aerial duels rate (2.4 to 1.6 per 90 minutes).
Considering the mismatch in the air, Ogbonna's best price of 33/1 for the first goal and 12/1 to strike anytime looks generous. Leeds have defensive problems going into this one with both Robin Koch and Diego Llorente out injured; Bielsa has already named his starting XI and Luke Ayling will go into the middle with Liam Cooper.
With this in mind, it's worth backing Aaron Cresswell to grab an assist as the Hammers man is the one often playing in the original pass from set-piece situations. He already has three on his tally this season due to that impact from free-kicks and corners.
Also named in Bielsa's starting XI was Rodrigo, the Spanish international has been largely restricted to appearances from the bench and a Covid absence brought an end to his brief run in the team. It's exciting to see what he can do in this Leeds side and with Rodrigo just 2/1 for a goal anytime, it's worth backing him for an assist at 3/1 given his role just behind Patrick Bamford up front. He had more assists than goals for Valencia last season.
While West Ham are expected to strike, you would lean towards the home side being the more likely for success, even with the Hammers' good early season form. That Leeds price is just a tad too short though, even after promising performances, so the outright result is one to avoid here.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bets:
Opta facts
- This will be the first league meeting between Leeds and West Ham since the 2011-12 Championship campaign, when both games ended in draws with the away side equalising in the 90th minute both times.
- Leeds have never lost a top-flight home game played on a Friday (W3 D6), drawing both such games in the Premier League (1-1 v Newcastle in April 1994, 0-0 with Aston Villa in December 2003).
- Away from home, West Ham have lost their last three Friday Premier League games without scoring a single goal, with their last such victory coming at Portsmouth in December 2008 (4-1).
- West Ham have opened the scoring in each of their last six Premier League games – only once have they scored the first goal in more consecutive Premier League matches (7 between February-April 2002).
- West Ham’s Aaron Cresswell has created more chances than any other defender in the Premier League this season (20), while he’s also created more chances from set plays than any other player in the competition so far this term (12).
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (09/12/20)
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