Leeds v Manchester City tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Manchester City will be hoping to follow up victory over Liverpool as they head to Leeds. Tom Carnduff picks out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Rasmus Kristensen to have 1+ assists at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
Manchester City welcomed back the domestic action with an entertaining 3-2 victory over Liverpool in the Carabao Cup - a competition they will be targeting success in alongside the desire to close the five-point gap to Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table.
Pep Guardiola's side went into the World Cup break on the back of that surprise 2-1 home defeat to Brentford - a result that ended a six-game unbeaten run across all competitions.
The Gunners capitalised to create a decent distance in the standings, but the bookmakers remain unconvinced, and City are still the clear odds-on favourites for the title with 2/5 on offer across the board.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
TV Channel: Amazon Prime
Leeds 19/2 | Draw 5/1 | Manchester City 1/4
For Leeds, the battle is at the other end of the table as they look to avoid the drop once again. While they sit in 15th, the numbers have been more positive than the 2021/22 campaign where it went to the final day.
In that season, Leeds were scoring at a rate of 1.11 goals from 1.37 xG per game. In 22/23, the average stands at 1.57 goals and 1.62 xG.
The defensive side has also seen the much needed improvement. Not perfect, but better than what it was. They've reduced the goals against from 2.08 to 1.86, with xGA also dropping from 1.90 to 1.71.
That was the season as a whole and the team has seen upturn under Jesse Marsch, as much as he divides opinion and faces what must feel like a constant uphill battle following in the footsteps of a club legend in Marcelo Bielsa.
Leeds' 26 games under Marsch have brought an average of 1.35 goals and 1.57 xG. Defensively, it's 1.73 goals from 1.63 xGA. It's still a negative, but the gap between the metrics has shortened.
What this mid-season break may have shown us - that could well be crucial for Leeds this season - is the willingness to adapt as things aren't going well.
Friendlies against Real Sociedad (which they won) and Monaco saw Marsch deploy his side in a 4-3-3 based system, which became a three at the back in possession.
This brings us onto the best bet in this game, which is taking RASMUS KRISTENSEN 1+ ASSISTS at a price of 10/1 with Sky Bet.
One of the things that caught my eye from attending both of these games was that in possession, Kristensen was virtually operating as a winger. The latter contest against Monaco saw dangerous low crosses and chances to get shots away himself.
The Whites had an illness bug in the camp so were far from full strength in that game, and we have to hold some reluctance on the fact it was a friendly, but it looks like this could be their preferred way of playing in the short-term.
Keeping Pascal Struijk at left-back allows him to slot in as a LCB when Leeds have the ball, pushing across the other two centre-backs and giving Kristensen freedom to move right up the pitch.
The combination of Kristensen and potentially Willy Gnonto down that side may make things uncomfortable for Joao Cancelo, and with Gnonto the direct option when carrying the ball, Kristensen overlapping should present crossing opportunities.
I'm not expecting Leeds to have a whole host of chances in this game - one that City should win - but the five goals against from an average of 1.12 xGA in away outings for the current champions gives hope to Marsch's men.
They scored three against Chelsea, three against Tottenham and two in victory at Liverpool in games before the World Cup break, so while they may sit in the bottom-half, Leeds have shown that they can trouble the very best.
We're siding with the new system playing its part and KRISTENSEN capitalising on the attacking freedom now afforded to him.
Leeds v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Rasmus Kristensen to have 1+ assists at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Leeds 1-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1215 GMT (23/12/22)
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