Leeds welcome Crystal Palace to Elland Road on Tuesday and Tom Carnduff is backing a big-priced goalscorer to strike.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Leeds to have 15+ total shots at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Liam Cooper to score anytime at 19/1 (SBK)
Leeds find themselves three points clear of the relegation zone in the Premier League standings and an uninspiring 0-0 draw away at Brighton on Saturday puts huge pressure on a positive result in this game.
They posted 0.80 xG to Brighton's 1.99 and can consider themselves very lucky to come out of the contest with something. They must improve, although three consecutive home games with at least a point should give them confidence.
Crystal Palace have demonstrated a good level of improvement under Patrick Vieira and will provide yet another tough test for Leeds. The Eagles have failed to win either of their last two but posted the higher xG totals in both.
Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: Amazon Prime Video
Leeds 7/5 | Draw 23/10 | Crystal Palace 19/10
There are a couple of bets that have caught my eye in this contest and we'll start by discussing the big-priced goalscorer. Set-pieces could go in the favour of the home side here - and with their issues to score from open play it may be something that is targeted.
While he hasn't yet found the net this season, I'm backing LIAM COOPER TO SCORE ANYTIME at a huge price of 19/1 with SBK - other bookmakers are going around the 16/1 mark so the value is available across the board.
We always have to be realistic about the chances of scoring from a corner but this game seems to have the right mix for him to strike. Crystal Palace have conceded ten goals from set-pieces in 13 games so far - that is the highest in the Premier League.
While Leeds are middle of the pack when it comes to scoring from these chances, Cooper's goals in recent seasons shows that he can strike against those who struggle to defend these situations.
His one goal in 2020/21 came against Manchester United - the team who finished 2nd to Leeds for goals conceded from corners and free-kicks. The year before it was Brentford and Stoke, and while they weren't leaders in this area at the time, the averages they finished with would have put them at the top-end of the scale in the Premier League.
In 2018/19, he scored three times and two of those came against Preston (second for goals against from set-pieces) and Ipswich (fourth for goals against from set-pieces).
Against Wolves last season - the side who finished joint-third in the above category - Cooper registered a staggering five shots with four of those on target. He also had shots against the likes of Sheffield United, Brighton and Palace - teams who hit double figures for goals against from set-pieces.
Add in the fact that Palace have conceded goals to defenders from corners in their last two games - Matt Targett and Ben Mee - and the 19/1 best price, and even the 16/1 general, looks a tad too big in this contest.
Heading into the stats market and siding with the hosts to have a number of efforts on goal looks a solid play given their recent showings when playing at Elland Road.
Sky Bet offer 13/8 for LEEDS TO HAVE 15+ SHOTS and that looks a great price given it's a bet that would have won on multiple occasions.
Only the big trio of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City have a higher average number of shots per game than Marcelo Bielsa's side (14.3) but the number jumps up when playing in front of their own fans.
They average 16.2 per home contest but that figure is affected by the fact they only managed nine against Liverpool. Take away that one and the average across games against Everton, Leicester, Watford, West Ham and Wolves is 17.6.
For Palace, they are conceding 11.6 shots per Premier League contest but that figure rises sharply to 16.3 per away game. An opponent has had 15 or more shots in three of their six games on the road although two of those fell just short with 14. The other was 13 so it's not as if there has been a drastic drop in one outing.
With the result uncertain given the recent form of both sides, it's better backing COOPER to score in a game where the LEEDS SHOT line is around and beyond the 15 marker again.
Leeds v Crystal Palace best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Leeds to have 15+ total shots at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Liam Cooper to score anytime at 19/1 (SBK)
Score prediction: Leeds 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 0900 GMT (29/11/21)
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