Leeds v Crystal Palace tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Easter Sunday's Premier League action begins as Leeds host Crystal Palace. Tom Carnduff has found value in backing two goalscorers.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Jack Harrison to score anytime at 5/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
0.5pt Robin Koch to score anytime at 33/1 (Sky Bet)
A meeting between the 'best of the rest' heading into the weekend, Leeds take on Crystal Palace with both the outsiders in the Premier League relegation battle.
The Whites' appointment of Javi Gracia has delivered 10 points from a possible 18 - crucial wins over Forest, Southampton and Wolves sitting alongside a bonus draw against Brighton.
That victory over Forest was particularly impressive, a total of 21 shots leading to 2.23 xG for their two goals. Confidence will be high ahead of another huge game in their quest for survival.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Leeds 21/20 | Draw 12/5 | Crystal Palace 13/5
Palace had an imposing victory of their own last time out. The Roy Hodgson era (part two) began with a 2-1 win over Leicester - a contest where they dominated the chances and deserved to have the result secured prior to the 95th-minute winner.
They had 31 shots to the Foxes' three, but how they approach this one will be interesting. They can't really afford to be as brave as they were last weekend given they're on the road.
There is a greater emphasis on Leeds to win too. With Palace having home fixtures against Bournemouth, Everton, Forest and West Ham before the season is over, they have good chances for points elsewhere.
The uncertainty surrounding the away side given the short time since a managerial change is the one thing putting us off delving into the outright market, but the value on offer in goalscorers more than makes up for that.
At 5/1, there is big appeal in backing JACK HARRISON TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The winger capitalised on a goalkeeping error to score Leeds' equaliser last time out, and he's a player who has benefited massively from Gracia's arrival.
He's been on for at least 80 minutes in all six games under the new boss - more than playing his part with goal contributions.
Harrison has scored three and provided two assists, with a total of 11 shots across that period too. His xG figure stands at 1.24 but that's not a concern considering his ability to make the most of low probability chances.
Leeds' starting line-up shouldn't change much given the performance and result against Forest. Max Wöber may return at centre-back, while Wilfried Gnonto could also come in. Regardless, Harrison should keep his spot.
The same applies to ROBIN KOCH, and I'm slightly intrigued by his 33/1 price to SCORE ANYTIME given that we're expecting Leeds to be on the front foot.
The right centre-back role is his in this Leeds side, particularly following the departure of Diego Llorente in January, and he's performed well in the games where they've enjoyed success.
Leeds had 11 corners in victory over Forest, while there were nine when they beat Southampton. They should see the count hit a decent total in this game too.
That will mean that Koch has chances in advanced positions, and Palace have conceded opportunities at set-piece situations throughout the season.
The centre-back's two shots in games under Gracia have both been valued at 0.11 xG. He typically sees good quality chances when he does get a shot away - two of the final three under previous management carried values of 0.17.
He did find the net in a friendly against Monaco during the World Cup break. A friendly yes, but one that did highlight his ability to strike when connecting with a decent delivery into the box.
This bet doesn't necessarily just have to be a bullet header that breaks the net, but more so that he'll be in advanced positions throughout the game. This could well be the fixture where he gets his first competitive goal of the season.
Leeds look in the best position to get victory here, but the more appealing prices come in backing HARRISON and KOCH to strike.
Leeds v Crystal Palace best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Jack Harrison to score anytime at 5/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
- 0.5pt Robin Koch to score anytime at 33/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1045 BST (06/04/23)
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