After coming within an inch of an 80/1 winner in midweek, Tom Carnduff is hoping for success on Saturday and has three best bets for Leeds v Chelsea.
Football betting tips: Leeds v Chelsea
1pt Mason Mount to have 4+ tackles at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Kai Havertz to have 1+ assists at 11/2 (Unibet)
0.5pts Diego Llorente to have 1+ assists at 28/1 (Ladbrokes)
Watching Chelsea winning games to nil has become a regular occurrence during the Thomas Tuchel reign. Takumi Minamino remains the only opposition player to score against this back line through his 11 games at the helm. However, a trip to West Yorkshire to face Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds should see them concede.
The Blues are still good value for victory, even at odds-on, with Leeds failing to get the better of the teams higher up in the standings as the season has progressed. That's fine though, they are largely winning when they are meant to and we know they will keep their attacking approach for the test against Tuchel's men.
Chelsea's form makes them a strong bet for a top-four finish, a fine achievement given their position when Tuchel arrived, and the long term aim will be a serious charge at the title. They should gain three points at Elland Road, in a game that promises entertainment.
Will Chelsea make the top-four this season?
West Ham may hold a game in-hand on Chelsea but the Blues have two points more with ten games of the campaign remaining. Three points in Saturday's early kick-off will move them level on points with Leicester, and one behind Manchester United, with second still up for grabs.
While 2/7 is on offer for a top-four finish, the 10/3 with Sky Bet on a straight forecast for Manchester City 1st and Chelsea 2nd looks a real value play. A win over Leeds will surely see those odds shorten as we enter the final stage of the season.
Manchester United do hold a superior goal difference (+23 to +19) but Chelsea's strong defensive record gives them every chance of overtaking them in that metric too. Even with a Leeds goal a real possibility, they can capitalise on a leaky defence to win by a couple of goals.
Can Leeds score against Chelsea?
Chelsea have kept clean sheets in nine of their 11 games under Tuchel but Leeds' 43 goals is the highest of any team from 9th downwards. The Blues have only scored one more across the course of the season and Leeds have netted more than Everton and West Ham.
They were beaten by the Hammers last time out but they could have easily gained a point from that game. Sloppy finishing and a debatable offside decision denied them a goal and the pace at which they can break forward may catch out a fairly slow Chelsea back line.
Leeds' Infogol expected goals figure was 1.53 against West Ham, while they had 2.73 a few weeks earlier at Wolves, but both games failed to return a goal. While Chelsea have been limiting chances against them, you wouldn't bet against this Leeds team catching them out.
While all eyes will be on the likes of Raphinha and Patrick Bamford, there is a value play in the assists market and that comes in the form of DIEGO LLORENTE, who is 28/1 with Ladbrokes. He almost had an assist last time out with his driven through ball playing Bamford in but the Leeds striker curled the ball wide of the post.
That was the second consecutive game where he had registered a key pass at some stage across the 90 minutes. That is a pass that led directly to a good attacking opportunity. Leeds' goal at Stamford Bridge came as a result of a through ball capitalising on the slow duo of Thiago Silva and Kurt Zouma and Bielsa may target this as a route to success again.
If it's not playing one through for Bamford, there is the long ball out wide to both wingers, of which Raphinha can cause issues as he looks to cut inside and shoot. He is no stranger to a goal from distance and one of those going in will result in a Llorente assist.
Value in Chelsea's attacking midfield
Guessing the Chelsea front three is becoming a real task, with Tuchel giving Pep Guardiola a run for his money when it comes to rotation. Last week he went with Kai Havertz operating as more of a centre forward, with Timo Werner on the right and Callum Hudson-Odoi on the left.
Werner's preference to drift left saw Tuchel remind him of his duties, as picked up by the pitchside microphones. The conversation, in German, had Tuchel complaining that Werner was spending too much time on the left when he was on the right.
It will be interesting to see where he lines up this week but Werner may take the central role with Havertz and MASON MOUNT taking the two spots behind him. While we target Mount for goals and assists, and he was an inch away from delivering a 20/1 winner against Liverpool, there is real value in taking him to have four or more tackles on Saturday.
It's a side of his game that goes unnoticed given his attacking input but Mount regularly posts a high amount of tackles. A third of his Premier League appearances this season have seen him have three or more successful tackles, with four in 24 minutes as he was substituted on against Everton.
He's had at least one tackle in seven of his eight starts under Tuchel and he should return to the XI here. Leeds are a high tackles team (19 per 90 minutes) and that usually drags up the opposition's number too. The last four teams to play Leeds have all seen 14 or more tackles.
Elsewhere, a really positive performance last time out should retain a spot in the starting XI and the price on KAI HAVERTZ HAVING AN ASSIST looks too generous at 11/2. While he has struggled during his time at Stamford Bridge, he looked like the player signed from Leverkusen against Everton.
He picked up an assist in that win as he was fouled for the penalty, which Jorginho scored, and I'm not concerned with his assists record so far this season (four in the Premier League). That performance gives hope to the fact he is returning to his best and that can only be a good thing.
With Chelsea expected to score a few, Havertz is worth investigating in the assists market as we remain hopeful he will get a run of games in the side now. He registered a key pass in Tuchel's first game against Wolves and then one in the ten minutes he was on the pitch for against Burnley.
With Chelsea odds-on for victory, and a win with goals pushing the price just above even money, the better value comes in the three plays mentioned above and backing HAVERTZ, LLORENTE and MOUNT having some impact on the contest.
Leeds v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Mason Mount to have 4+ tackles at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Kai Havertz to have 1+ assists at 11/2 (Unibet)
- 0.5pts Diego Llorente to have 1+ assists at 28/1 (Ladbrokes)
Score prediction: Leeds 1-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (11/03/21)
Opta facts
- Leeds have lost just one of their last nine Premier League home games against Chelsea (W5 D3), with this the first such meeting since a 1-1 draw in December 2003.
- Chelsea are looking to secure their first league double over Leeds since the 1988-89 campaign in the second tier, while the Blues last won home and away against Leeds in the same top-flight season back in 1936-37.
- Chelsea won their last away game against Leeds, winning a League Cup tie 5-1 in December 2012 – they’ve never won consecutive away games against the Whites in all competitions before.
- Leeds have conceded a league-high 29 goals in the first half of Premier League games this season – four more than Chelsea have conceded in total this term. However, 61% of Chelsea’s league goals this season have come after half-time (27/44), with only Newcastle and Sheffield United netting a higher share in the second half.
- Chelsea have won five of their six away games in all competitions under Thomas Tuchel so far (D1), having lost four of their last five under Frank Lampard (W1).
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