Leeds United host Brighton in the Premier League on Saturday - Tom Carnduff has a preview and a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Adam Webster to score anytime in Leeds v Brighton at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leeds v Brighton
- 15:00 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 12/5
Leeds hit the headlines last weekend for suffering a 3-0 defeat to Sky Bet League Two side Crawley in the FA Cup, a result tipped up in our preview at 5/1, and the focus will be on putting things right as they welcome Brighton. The Seagulls nearly suffered a shock of their own as they won on penalties against Newport and then narrowly losing to Manchester City in midweek.
Leeds look a decent enough price at 21/20 for victory here. Marcelo Bielsa reportedly held back first team players due to get minutes in the under-23s so that they can focus on bouncing back from the Crawley result. The Whites have beaten Burnley, Newcastle and Fulham at home this season, three teams who surround Brighton in the table.
The Seagulls struggle to win football matches and they are really held back by their inability to pick up three points on a more regular basis. They could well win here, it's not a ridiculously tough match in terms of the season, but that will only really mean something if they can follow it up with a win over Fulham next.
Brighton could well score though and we're again targeting set-pieces in a game like this. We had a successful 11/4 tip in the City game on them having at least four corners, which they did, but the price on that is drastically reduced for this contest. With corners expected for the visitors, it's worth looking at a big-priced goalscorer to strike.
Adam Webster was a tip in our last Saturday Premier League preview at a price of 16/1. They drew 3-3 with Wolves and Webster agonisingly hit the crossbar from a cross. Despite that not coming in, I'm willing to keep my faith in the defender scoring given Leeds' defending at set-pieces.
It's a really weak area. They should have conceded from one at Crawley but Kiko Casilla made a great save on the line. Leeds are the only team to hit double figures for goals conceded from set-pieces in the Premier League. They have already conceded goals to Toby Alderweireld, Angelo Ogbonna (a 12/1 winning tip), Ciaran Clark (mentioned at 20/1), Victor Lindelof, Kurt Zouma, Scott Dann and Virgil van Dijk this season.
Webster leads the way for aerial duels won in this Brighton team. His average of 2.8 will make for an interesting battle against Leeds captain Liam Cooper, who returns from injury. In fact, this game will be the first for a few weeks where Leeds actually have two recognised centre-backs on the pitch, that shouldn't change the fact they struggle on set-pieces.
Backing a defender, or at least putting one in your fantasy football team, looks to be a decent approach against Leeds because it presents a real chance to score. If Brighton are odds-on to have at least five corners in this game, there is every chance one of those will present a genuine goalscoring opportunity.
Webster's price is on the generous side considering the game, and while Leeds may well end up winning it, it's worth backing the Brighton defender getting on the scoresheet at odds of 12/1, although the 9/1 across the board still represents good value.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Leeds v Brighton best bets
Opta facts
- Leeds have conceded 33 goals in their 17 Premier League games this season – the Whites had only conceded 35 in their 46 Championship games last term.
- Leeds are looking to win three consecutive home games in the Premier League for the first time since a run of five between April-August 2001 under David O’Leary.
- Brighton are winless in their last nine Premier League games (D5 L4), the longest current run in this season’s competition.
- Brighton are averaging 12.3 shots per game in the Premier League this season, their highest in a single Premier League campaign. However, just 28% of these shots have been on target, their lowest ratio in a single season in the competition.
- Brighton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League this season (12).
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (14/01/21)
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