Free betting tips and match preview: Sky Bet Championship - Leeds United v Stoke City
Leeds can reclaim top spot in the Sky Bet Championship table with victory over Stoke. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Luke Ayling to have 2+ total shots at 9/4
1pt Leeds to have 21+ total shots at 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leeds v Stoke (Sky Sports Football, 17:00 BST)
The pressure is back on Leeds following wins for Brentford and West Brom in midweek, and thanks to the broadcast selections, the Whites will spend the large majority of the remainder of the season playing after their closest rivals.
This is one of many Leeds fixtures occupying the TV slots; it's now hit a point where they had to drop their game against Swansea on Sunday so that they have enough slots to follow the remainder of their promotion push.
Leeds put in a good performance as they beat Blackburn last time out while Stoke hammered Barnsley 4-0 in their meeting. Stoke will be no pushovers, but Leeds simply have to be winning games like this if they are to end their wait for a Premier League return.
The Asian Handicap has Leeds at -1 here and it's hard to disagree based on the quality of the two teams. Stoke have drastically improved under Michael O'Neill's guidance but Leeds were top of the table prior to the latest round of fixtures for a reason.
With Leeds such a short price for victory, 1/2 across the board, the value comes in the stats markets and backing Leeds to see a high shots count.
Leeds average the highest shots per game average out of any team in the Championship this season; their 16.4 is clear of the 14.7 posted by West Brom in second.
A point of interest is how Marcelo Bielsa's side exceed that average when they face teams at the bottom end of the division. There were 23 in their 1-1 draw with Luton, 21 against Barnsley and 17 in the 4-0 win over Hull. Even the early season meeting between these two sides saw Leeds post 21.
Given the importance of victory here, and Stoke's potential preference to play on the counter attack, Leeds could hit the 20s once again. Sky Bet make it 5/1 that Leeds reach the 21 total shots mark again and that seems a great price given their track record.
Among those shots should be Luke Ayling. The full-back contributes as much in attack as he does in defence; there were three total shots for him in the win over Blackburn on Saturday.
There have been nine separate occasions in the league this season where Ayling has posted at least two shots and it's 9/4 that he does the same against Stoke. The fact there were at least two shots for him in three of his last five outings gives further confidence to this selection.
Ultimately, this should be a game where Leeds wrap up the three points but the price is too short to justify backing them outright.
Instead, it could be worth siding with the 5/6 price on under 2.5 goals; only 13 of Leeds' 41 games this season have seen three or more goals scored.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-0 Stoke (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Luke Ayling to have 2+ total shots at 9/4
Best bet: Leeds to have 21+ total shots at 5/1
Odds correct at 2100 BST (08/07/20)
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