Nick Hext is backing Scunthorpe to win the Sky Bet League One play-offs ahead of Thursday night's semi-final first legs.
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Bradford City v Fleetwood Town (1945 BST, Sky Sports 5)
The EFL play-offs get started on Thursday night with both first legs of the Sky Bet League One semi-finals.
The Championship and League One regular seasons finish over the weekend with those play-off finals taking place at Wembley on May 28 and 29, a week after the League One showpiece on May 20.
The return legs of the semi-finals in the third tier are both scheduled for 1830 BST on Sunday.
Bradford are priced up as the 15/8 favourites to win promotion to Championship but that price is a little short for me.
I'm a big fan of the way that the Bantams have gone about their business under Stuart McCall's management this season. The Scot has proved me wrong as I didn't think he'd be able to push the team on after the departure of the impressive Phil Parkinson to Bolton.
However, the main problem for Bradford has been 19 draws, more than any other League One side and the chief reason that they're in the play-offs rather than promoted automatically.
It's a very similar problem to that faced by Manchester United in the Premier League. Bradford are a capable side but too often they've been let down by a lack of cutting edge.
That has been helped somewhat by the signing of powerful forward Charlie Wyke from Carlisle in January but they've still only managed to score more than two goals in just one of their last 32 games. By way of comparison, champions Sheffield United did it in each of their last four.
Fleetwood's automatic promotions hopes were ended by Bolton's win at home to Peterborough on the final day of the campaign.
The Cod Army have greatly exceeded expectations since Uwe Rosler took charge just before the start of the season and I think they've got a better chance in this tie than the odds suggest.
They only lost third place in the table to Scunthorpe on the final day of the season after a 0-0 draw against Port Vale but there's still plenty to be optimistic about.
I reckon this game will end in a draw but my betting interest comes from the other tie.
Prediction: Bradford City 1-1 Fleetwood Town
Opta facts:
Both clashes between Bradford and Fleetwood this season ended in a 2-1 win for the home side.
Fleetwood finished fourth in Sky Bet League One this season. The team that has finished fourth has gone on to play in the play-off final in each of the last six League One seasons.
Bradford have now finished fifth in consecutive Sky Bet League One seasons, losing at the semi-final stage of last season’s play-offs against Millwall.
Fleetwood have kept the most clean sheets in League One this season (20).
Both City and the Cod Army conceded 43 goals in Sky Bet League One last season. Only Bolton conceded fewer (36).
Fleetwood have never lost a Football League play-off match (W2 D1) after earning promotion to Sky Bet League One in 2014, beating Burton Albion 1-0 in the final at Wembley.
Indeed, Fleetwood are yet to concede a goal in the Football League play-offs.
Bradford’s only defeat in their last 31 home matches in league competition (inc. play-offs) was to Millwall in the first leg of the Sky Bet League One play-offs last season (W18 D12).
Millwall v Scunthorpe United (1945 BST, Sky Sports 1)
I reckon Scunthorpe provide a spot of value at 7/2 to secure this season's final promotion slot by winning the League One play-offs.
The Iron's bid to finish in the top two was ended by a nine-match winless run through February and March but they've got back on track to end the campaign.
Graham Alexander's side have won seven of their final nine matches of the season, including five on the spin to leave themselves in good shape ahead of their clash with Millwall.
The bookies make Scunthorpe outsiders to make it through against the Lions but I reckon they're good value to reach Wembley and perfectly capable of coming out best.
Momentum is key in the play-offs - you only have to look at Barnsley making it out of League One last season for an example.
Scunthorpe haven't been quite as rampaging as the Tykes over the last couple of months but they are in great form and should be shorter than the 7/2 available.
Millwall are second in the promotion betting but their journey to finishing sixth in League One was far from impressive in recent weeks.
The Lions lost two of their last three games to leave themselves needing victory at Bristol Rovers on the final day of the campaign to confirm their play-off place.
They managed a 4-3 win at Rovers but it was hard work and now a flu bug has hit the squad.
Manager Neil Harris hopes there will be no selection issues for Thursday's game at the Den but Scunthorpe are fresher for the game after making four changes for Sunday's 3-1 win at home to Coventry.
The 29/10 for the away win could be worth an interest but I'm going to show my support for Scunthorpe at 7/2 in the promotion betting and hope they can take the advantage from this first leg.
Prediction: Millwall 2-2 Scunthorpe United
Opta facts:
Millwall will be competing in the Sky Bet League One play-offs for the second consecutive season after their 2015-16 defeat to Barnsley in the final.
The Iron’s last foray into the play-offs was in the 2008-09 League One campaign – they beat Millwall 3-2 in the final at Wembley.
Only champions Sheffield United (92) scored more goals than Scunthorpe in League One this season (80).
Millwall scored a league high 11 goals from penalties in League One this season.
Josh Morris (19) and Lee Gregory (17) were the third and fourth top goalscorers in League One this season.
Scunthorpe scored six goals from direct free-kicks this season, the highest of any side in League One.
Millwall have failed to score in three of their last four league matches with Scunthorpe (W1 D1 L2).
Millwall have lost eight of their last 12 league matches against Scunthorpe, including the 2009 play-off final (W3 D1).
Posted at 1905 BST on 02/05/17.