League One betting tips: Outright preview and best bets for 23-24 season
Football betting tips: League One outright
6pts Bolton Wanderers to finish in the top six at evens (Unibet, Boylesports)
3pts Bolton Wanderers to be promoted at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2.5pts Shrewsbury to be relegated at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
2pts e.w. Oxford United to win League One 18/1 (Sky Bet - 1/5 odds 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w Cole Stockton to be top goalscorer at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Burton Albion to win League One at 66/1 (Sky Bet - 1/5 odds 1,2,3,4)
NOTE: Goalscorer and relegation selections added after initial publication due to availability of markets
In the past few seasons, Sky Bet League One has been a division of two halves – the haves and the have-nots – but that could all change in the campaign ahead.
Not only have two of the third tier’s biggest clubs last term – Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday – been promoted, they haven’t really been replaced by the sides that have come down.
None of Reading, Wigan and Blackpool will strike terror into the hearts of League One opposition especially with the ongoing and seemingly never-ending financial issues plaguing the first two.
From a punting perspective, this has resulted in two instantly apparent occurrences in the outright market – Derby becoming clear favourites and, subsequently, a spread of very generous odds elsewhere.
Sky Bet League One Winner 23/24 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 9/2 - Derby
- 7/1 - Bolton
- 9/1 - Barnsley, Peterborough, Portsmouth
- 11/1 - Blackpool
- 12/1 - Reading
- 16/1 - Charlton
- 18/1 - Oxford
Odds correct at 1610 (21/07/23)
Who will win League One?
Usually the teams relegated from the Sky Bet Championship are a decent place to start, such can be the lop-sided nature of the division, but I’m not so sure that this is the case this time around.
Wigan begin on minus eight points, striking them from any conversation and I can’t get involved with a Reading side also suffering recurring off-field issues and who spent much of the summer under a transfer embargo.
They have the talent to challenge, only relegated due to a six-point deduction, but at 12/1, sixth favourites despite all the above, it’s not worth getting involved especially with so many players – Tom Ince, Lucas Joao, Yakou Meite – leaving since relegation.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have shed a large number of players and this could be a rebuilding campaign. Neil Critchley, who led them to promotion in 2020-21, is back in charge after spells at Aston Villa and QPR – his stock dipping significantly at the latter.
So back to the aforementioned Derby then - installed as favourites, a hefty leap for a side that did not even make the play-offs last season, finishing seventh.
Rams boss Paul Warne is a proven commodity when it comes to promotion but Derby have lost two big players – midfielder Jason Knight and 22-goal striker David McGoldrick. Can they replace Knight's nous and McGoldrick's goals? It's a big question.
They were unlucky to miss out on the play-offs last term, expected points (xP) placing them third rather than seventh, but 5/1 top price looks short on value considering McGoldrick's exit plus the fact three teams still in the division finished above them.
One of those teams is Bolton, who we backed – as well as promotion-winning Wednesday – in last year’s preview and I’m happy to go in again on a club on the up who narrowly missed out in 2022-23, finishing fifth and losing in the play-off semis.
They have the feel of a Plymouth, a team gradually inching up the table season by season, and enjoy the continuity of a settled squad, plus an impressive boss in Ian Evatt – who has two promotions in five seasons as a manager on his CV.
Only three sides conceded fewer than 40 goals in League One last season – two of them were promoted, Ipswich (35) and Wednesday (37), with Bolton (36) sandwiched in between, and that defensive base is an excellent one to keep building from.
The Trotters were a consistent presence in the play-off spots for virtually the entire campaign last term and the division seems considerably weaker this season so even money on BOLTON TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX looks a very enticing prospect.
The only major hole this summer - the loss of on-loan goalkeeper James Trafford back to Manchester City - has been plugged with the arrival of Chelsea stopper Nathan Baxter and this is a team that looks incredibly well set up to take the next step.
With that in mind, I'm happy to double down on Ian Evatt's men by backing BOLTON TO BE PROMOTED at 11/4. They are a top price 8/1 to win the league but the promotion market also provides the chance of going up through the play-offs.
Of the other main contenders, beaten play-off finalists Barnsley overshot their xP by 16.5 – the second most in the division – and with the departures of manager Michael Duff and top defender Mads Andersen, it’s tough to be too enthused.
They remain one of the division’s stronger outfits but being without a manager a month before the season begins is not ideal and, like last term, they may again be playing catch-up after not appointing Neill Collins as Duff’s successor until early July.
At time of writing, they are also awaiting the outcome of EFL charges regarding ownership breaches which could result in a points deduction – in short there are too many variables to get behind them.
It would be a surprise if neither Charlton nor Portsmouth challenged – both are big clubs at this level but have consistently underachieved in the past few seasons.
This should be the kind of wide-open campaign that sees one or both finally come through the pack – of the two, I’d be inclined to side with Pompey, who have finished in the top 10 for five seasons running.
But they’ve had a relatively extensive squad turnover in the summer, head coach John Mousinho is still unproven and I’m struggling to find reasons to back them with too much confidence even if a gut instinct tells me this could be their year.
Of last season’s other contenders, Wycombe fell away after losing Gareth Ainsworth while Peterborough will have their backers but their collapse from 4-0 up in the play-off semi-finals concerns me enough from a psychological standpoint to stay away.
Who are the best value teams to back to win League One?
Given there are so many questions over the division's bigger sides, there is scope for others to make marked improvements on last season’s performance and the team that immediately catches the eye in that regard is OXFORD UNITED.
Now, look, they pulled up no trees last season, finishing 19th, just two points above the relegation zone – after a nightmare run of nine defeats in 10 games in the second half of the campaign that cost Karl Robinson his job.
After that run of one point from 30, Liam Manning came in and took 11 from the final 30 available to lead them to safety.
That’s promising enough before you consider that Manning has already proven to be a boss capable of leading a promotion push at this level, guiding MK Dons to third place in League One in 2021-22.
But, for me, the key factor is that regardless of who was manager – Robinson or Manning – Oxford were simply incredibly unlucky to be dragged into bother at all.
Their xP tally was 23 higher than their actual total, the largest differential in the league – indeed, had they performed to their xG numbers, they would have finished sixth, 13 places higher than they did.
This all suggests Manning has a solid base to build from, something he benefited from at his former club, and his recruitment has also been eye-catching, including winning the race to sign Notts County goal and assist machine Ruben Rodrigues.
He should help improve the goal tally that let the U's down last season - their defensive figures were top-half worthy - and at 20/1 in places it is worth a flutter on Oxford turning their impressive xG figures into a team that could WIN LEAGUE ONE.
Having said that, I shall be taking the 18/1 available with Sky Bet as they are the only firm offering four places in the each way market - the marginal drop in price is worth it for the extra place, with every other bookmaker offering three.
I also can’t let the mammoth price of 66/1 on BURTON ALBION go unbacked. Don’t let the size of the club put you off, they’ve been promoted to the Championship before and their 15th-place finish last term was slightly deceiving.
They endured a nightmare start under Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, taking one point from their first seven games before he quit – but replacement Dino Maamria guided them away from trouble impressively.
Indeed, if you begin the season from when he took over, Burton would have finished ninth. There’s still some improvement needed to challenge, admittedly, but they have cleared out plenty of dead wood over the summer and recruited smartly.
Goalkeepers Jamal Blackman and Max Crocombe will tussle over the number one jersey, while ex-Derby man Mason Bennett, Morecambe’s Cole Stockton and Ipswich’s Rekeem Harper are all very promising signings in the final third.
At the price – joint rank outsiders with a lot of firms – Burton have been disrespected and with Sky Bet paying 1/5 odds for the top four places, as opposed to three with most, it is a value each-way small-stakes bet to back Albion to WIN LEAGUE ONE.
Who will be the League One top goalscorer?
Tom Carnduff
I was happy to see that Michael has selected Burton as a team to back this season as I had them on my radar for this remarkably open league.
The signings should allow them to build upon that strong second-half of last season showing, and one of those new names is in focus here.
At a best price of 50/1, the appeal is there in taking STOCKTON TO BE TOP GOALSCORER. That gives us odds of 12.5/1 for the each-way element of the bet.
We're taking it each-way but I do believe he has a chance at the top spot. The 29-year-old has proven himself to be a scorer at this level in recent years despite featuring for a team in Morecambe who have been battling for survival.
The 2021/22 campaign delivered 23 goals, while he scored seven across his final four games of last season. Braces coming in each of the last three shows the type of form he found himself in when they needed to deliver positive results.
Under Maamria, Burton averaged 1.49 xG per game across their 39 league outings, resulting in a lower 1.26 actual goals scored rate. Granted they averaged 0.38 xG per game from set-piece situations, but it's still a strong enough showing from a team battling at the bottom end of the table.
Improvement is expected and Stockton should enjoy plenty of opportunities to strike. We've seen him return 23 for a side who managed to avoid the drop, what could he do for one battling in the top half of the division?
Who will be relegated from League One?
Tom Carnduff:
It's taken a while to finally get the relegation markets available with the situations playing out at a few clubs, but multiple bookmakers have now offered it ahead of the season starting.
There are a couple of names that have grabbed my attention here, but I'm willing to gamble on the 10/3 available for SHREWSBURY TO BE RELEGATED.
Four places are available in this division, and it's been a summer of significant change at Shrewsbury. Not only has Matt Taylor replaced the popular Steve Cotterill in the dugout, the fact he's a head coach and not a manager shows the new structure in Shropshire.
Micky Moore is in as the director of football, but a lot still needs to happen in this transfer window if Salop are to come close to the 12th place finish they achieved last season.
It's unclear where exactly the goals will come from in this current squad - although Daniel Udoh could have a half-decent campaign - and at this current time it feels like the attitude is to survive rather than thrive.
A 5-3-2 system could be restrictive, and at the odds available, Shrewsbury look the value bet in this market.
Michael Beardmore:
If you fancy someone to 'do an MK Dons' and suffer a shock relegation, WYCOMBE might be the best bet.
The Chairboys could suffer a hangover after the departure of long-serving boss Gareth Ainsworth and have had a large summer turnover without really addressing their lack of a potent goalscorer.
Check the prices when markets finally launch.
Sky Bet League One 2023-24 Outright best bets
- 6pts Bolton Wanderers to finish in the top six at evens (General)
- 3pts Bolton Wanderers to be promoted at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- 2.5pts Shrewsbury to be relegated at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
- 2pts e.w. Oxford United to win League One 18/1 (Sky Bet - 1/5 odds 1,2,3,4)
- 1pt e.w Cole Stockton to be top goalscorer at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
- 1pt e.w. Burton Albion to win League One at 66/1 (Sky Bet - 1/5 odds 1,2,3,4)
Odds correct at 1610 BST (21/07/23)
*Goalscorer and relegation odds correct at 0925 BST (31/07/23)
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