League One betting tips: Outright preview and best bets for 22-23 season
After successfully tipping MK Dons to finish in the top three last season, Michael Beardmore returns with his best outright picks for the 2022-23 Sky Bet League One campaign.
Football betting tips: League One outright
3pts e.w. Sheffield Wednesday to win League One at 5/1 (Unibet) (e.w. terms 1-3 places)
1pt e.w. Bolton Wanderers to win League One at 14/1 (Unibet) (e.w. terms 1-3 places)
2pts Accrington Stanley to finish in the top half at 11/4 (Bet Victor)
2pts Peterborough to score most goals in League One at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Charlton to score most goals in League One at 40/1 (Sky Bet)
After four seasons in the doldrums, Sunderland finally located the Sky Bet League One escape tunnel - but have they scattered any breadcrumbs to aid the fellow big guns they have left behind?
While fortune finally crossed the Black Cats' path via promotion through the play-offs, the third tier remains a giants' graveyard with Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich, Bolton, Portsmouth and new arrivals Derby all among those scrambling for position to fit through an exit door that admits only three.
It’s not as wide a chasm as that between the Sky Bet Championship and the Premier League, but there is a gulf between the second and third tiers - yo-yo teams such as Barnsley, Wigan, Peterborough, Charlton and Rotherham providing plenty of cases in point.
The fact that virtually all of the teams your average person would consider "big clubs" finished in the top half of a very lop-sided table last term would suggest it makes sense to side with another of the third-tier elite this time around - so let's have a look at the main runners and riders.
Can Derby bounce straight back up?
Derby have been a mess for quite some time but with new owners in place, they clearly mean business. Conor Hourihane, James Chester, David McGoldrick, Tom Barkhuizen and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing head their recent recruitment list – that’s a lot of Premier League and/or Championship talent and experience right there.
However, a lot of new faces always raise the question of how long they will take to gel and the announcement of Liam Rosenior as ‘interim manager’ does not exactly scream stability.
We also cannot ignore the elephant in the room, namely the Rams’ off-field problems. These appear to be behind them but this is a club that’s had more lives than a cattery over the past two years – can we back them and remain confident they won’t incur the league’s wrath again?
At 8/1 generally for the title and 7/2 best price for promotion – third favourites in both markets – there are just far more questions than answers to be comfortable backing them to rebound at the first time of asking.
Who are the other automatic promotion contenders?
Ipswich improved during the second half of last season under rookie boss Kieran McKenna and the Tractor Boys warrant serious consideration but they still only finished 11th last term and will need to improve drastically up front - they sat 13th in the division for Expected Goals (xG).
I would be surprised if they failed to mount a more serious play-off challenge this time around but McKenna might need a full season under his belt before they are equipped to go up.
Portsmouth continue to flatter to deceive under Danny Cowley as much as they did under predecessor Kenny Jackett and are hard to justify having made minimal summer additions, while Plymouth and Oxford both fell away and still look short of the squad strength needed to maintain a serious challenge.
Play-off finalists Wycombe cannot be discounted as Gareth Ainsworth continues to eke out every drop of effort from the Chairboys but I just worry their best chance of a quick return to the Championship has passed them by. Nonetheless, the 5/2 some firms offer on a top-six Wycombe finish is worth a look.
Sky Bet League One Winner 22/23 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 7/2 - Sheffield Wednesday
- 5/1 - Ipswich
- 15/2 - Derby, Peterborough
- 11/1 - MK Dons
- 12/1 - Barnsley, Bolton, Portsmouth
- 14/1 - Oxford
- 16/1 - Wycombe
Odds correct at 1230 (16/07/22)
MK Dons rewarded this outright preview last year with each-way profit after finishing third and it was agonising to see them miss out on earning us a whopping promotion and title win pay-out by just one point and three points respectively.
However, that so-near-yet-so-far hangover is a worry – it certainly seemed to affect them in their play-off semi-final first-leg defeat by Wycombe – and they have lost key duo Scott Twine and Harry Darling to Championship sides.
I selected MK Dons last term on the back of their form towards the end of the previous season – and, sticking with that logic, I’m happy to side with title favourites SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY TO WIN LEAGUE ONE.
Why Sheffield Wednesday are our best bet in League One
The price of 5/1 might scare off a few looking for more value and that’s fair enough – I'm not generally a favourite backer myself but the Owls have strengthened a squad that finished fourth after winning 14 of their final 20 games.
They’ve brought in target man Michael Smith and centre-half Michael Ihiekwe, both from promoted Rotherham, plus midfielder Will Vaulks from Championship side Cardiff to replace the departing Massimo Luongo, along with Wycombe keeper David Stockdale.
Add those names to the likes of Barry Bannan and Lee Gregory and you have a squad that looks extremely strong on paper and should really improve on last season's finish which would have been higher if not for their inconsistency away from home.
It often takes teams who drop down from the Championship a season to adjust to the shock to the system and Darren Moore's side have come through that period in decent shape.
We can take the 5/1 to each-way terms at 1/4 of the odds, which will yield profit if Wednesday finish in the top three.
Who provides best value in the League One promotion race?
Sticking with teams who are showing definite evidence of progression brings us to my second, slightly more speculative outright selection which will be one for the longer-odds punters.
Bolton Wanderers won 14 of their final 22 games, losing just three, to finish ninth – if not for a dip in the autumn, the Trotters would have been genuine play-off contenders.
They are an exciting team going forward - registering the third highest xGF per game total (1.42) in the division last term, better than promoted pair Sunderland and Wigan - and their back-line was rated top-10 on xGA per game.
Ian Evatt has retained the majority of his promising young squad, adding a couple of defensive reinforcements to boot, and if you’re looking for an outside bet, BOLTON TO WIN LEAGUE ONE at 14/1, again at 1/4 odds for the top three places, fits the bill.
As mentioned, last season's "surprise packages" MK Dons and Wycombe are also worth a look at double-figure prices but Bolton get the nod in that bracket for me.
Steer clear of congested relegation market
History also tells us that not many teams making the jump from League Two challenge for back-to-back promotions – the first season is usually about consolidation or survival. It’s tough to make a case for any of Bristol Rovers, Port Vale, Forest Green Rovers or Exeter bucking that trend. None of the four have huge resources.
Indeed, the strange nature of League One last season – when there were virtually two leagues within a league – makes the relegation market one to avoid. The top 11 teams all had goal differences of +17 or better – there was a massive gulf between them and the rest of the division who all had negative GDs.
Sky Bet League One Relegation 22/23 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 5/6 - Morecambe
- 6/4 - Exeter, Fleetwood
- 15/8 - Cheltenham
- 2/1 - Cambridge, Port Vale
- 9/4 - Forest Green
- 11/4 - Accrington, Burton
- 3/1 - Bristol Rovers
- 10/3 - Shrewsbury
- 7/2 - Lincoln
Odds correct at 1200 (16/07/202)
That gulf is likely to remain, according to the odds which have 12 teams at 7/2 or shorter for relegation – the leap up to the next team at 10/1 highlights that chasm in quality, and there's no point trying to pick a team or two to drop out of a dozen at such small prices. It's tough to see any of the longer-odds sides being dragged into bother too.
Instead, if you want an interest in the table away from the promotion picture, the best price on offer looks to be the 11/4 on ACCRINGTON TO FINISH IN THE TOP HALF.
John Coleman’s Stanley are continually under-rated by the bookies and have recorded two successive top-half finishes and there’s an argument to be had that this season’s League One will be weaker than the two previous editions given Sunderland, Wigan and Rotherham all went up.
And while it’s not difficult to imagine the likes of Wednesday, Ipswich, Portsmouth, MK Dons, Derby, Barnsley and Peterborough filling out the top seven, there will be top-half, maybe even play-off opportunities for smaller clubs. Of those, Accrington's record suggests they are the team to be trusted the most.
Of the others, Shrewsbury appear to have recruited very well this summer and have a shrewd operator at the helm in Steve Cotterill. It will be tough to turn last season's 18th-placed finish into a promotion push - 66s for the title and 22s to go up are that long for a reason - but a top-half finish at 2/1 merits consideration.
Peterborough can continue goal merchants habit
In the past seven seasons, at least one club relegated from the Championship has bounced straight back up. It would be no surprise if that pattern continued – but nor would it be a shock if it didn’t.
Of the three coming down, at time of writing, Barnsley had lost main strikers Cauley Woodrow and Carlton Morris without replacing them and are difficult to back confidently with a new manager at the helm, even if it is the very progressive Michael Duff.
We’ve discussed the issues with Derby already, which leaves Peterborough, another of those yo-yo teams we mentioned. At 12/1 for the title and 4/1 to go up, Posh will have their backers and boss Grant McCann took Hull up as champions two years ago.
I feel there might just be a few too many big-hitters in the upper reaches of the division but one metric Peterborough always compete well in is goalscoring.
In their past two seasons in League One, Posh have been the division’s top scorers and they also picked up in the second half of last season upon McCann’s return.
Peterborough scored 19 in 14 under McCann (1.36 goals per game), compared to 0.75 per game before his arrival. That’s at Championship level too, remember. Goals should be much easier to come by after dropping a division for a team that tend to base promotion pushes on 3-2 wins rather than 1-0s.
At 9/2, Posh are joint second favourites in the market but the numbers back up their chances and I’m happy to pin my colours to the mast of PETERBOROUGH TO SCORE MOST GOALS IN LEAGUE ONE.
I can’t resist a long shot in the same market, one based on the managerial appointment made by Charlton this summer. Ben Garner’s Swindon Town were the highest scorers in League Two last season, netting 77 goals on their way to sixth place with a real gung-ho philosophy.
Garner has said in many interviews that an all-out attacking mind-set is how he wants his teams to play and it’s difficult to see him changing tack given that policy is what got him the Addicks job.
Charlton had a mediocre season last term but were League One’s joint fourth top scorers the season before – at40/1 it’s worth a small stake on CHARLTON TO SCORE MOST GOALS IN LEAGUE ONE.
Sky Bet League One 2022-23 Outright best bets
- 3pts e.w. Sheffield Wednesday to win League One at 5/1 (Unibet) (e.w. terms 1-3 places)
- 1pt e.w. Bolton Wanderers to win League One at 16/1 (Unibet) (e.w. terms 1-3 places)
- 2pts Accrington Stanley to finish in the top half at 11/4 (Bet Victor)
- 2pts Peterborough to score most goals in League One at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts Charlton to score most goals in League One at 40/1 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1700 (18/07/22)
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