Sunday's LaLiga betting preview sees the top three all in action and Matt Brocklebank is backing Alaves to score against Real Madrid.
Recommended Bets: LaLiga
3pts Alaves to score over 0.5 goals v Real Madrid at 20/21
Sevilla v Sporting Gijon (1100 BST, Sky Sports 3)
Sevilla get proceedings under way as the first of four odds-on shots in LaLiga on Sunday when they play host to Sporting Gijon.
There’s a gulf between the sides in terms of quality and overall form, but with Sevilla beaten by Atletico Madrid two weeks ago and Gijon giving themselves a lifeline with a six-pointer against Granada, the layers will be hopeful the outsiders can somehow defy the market.
Circumstances can obviously play a significant role around this stage of the campaign and with 10 games to claw their way out of the relegation zone (five points adrift of safety going into the weekend), there’s little suggestion Gijon will be anything other than fully motivated.
However, the same can also be said of Jorge Sampaoli’s side, who are so used to having to juggle numerous competitions during an extremely busy end-of-season schedule.
Last year Sevilla won just two of their final 10 LaLiga games as they built towards final appearances in the Europa League and Copa del Rey, while Europe was the priority in the two previous seasons as well.
This time it’s very much a clear run to May 21, having been dumped out of the Champions League by Leicester, and it’s certainly worth excusing them their Atletico reverse, which was an extremely difficult encounter and came hot on the heels of their King Power Stadium disappointment.
Well-rested and refocused, Sevilla are not easily opposed but those wishing to get with the visitors need only look at the recent head-to-head record which has seen Gijon win three of the last seven and draw 1-1 in the reverse fixture back in October.
That record isn’t factored into the price and with the away win/draw available at 5/2 and bigger, there’s every incentive to side with team fighting to secure a third successive season in Spain’s top flight.
Real Madrid v Alaves (1515 BST, Sky Sports 2)
Alaves have only failed to score in three away LaLiga games so far this season and look decent value to get on the scoresheet at the Santiago Bernabeu.
It’s been 17 years since the Vitoria-Gasteiz outfit beat Real but they’ve found the net in four of the last six head-to-heads and recent evidence suggests Mauricio Pellegrino’s men are likely to travel with some hope, if not expectation.
A run of four wins and a draw in their five league outings since being hammered at home by Barcelona, scoring at least once in each match, has seen Alaves move up to the relative comfort of 10th in the table and they can now look to play with a degree of freedom until the end of the season.
Leaders Real are obviously going to be extremely hard to overturn, as the match betting suggests with the hosts no bigger than 1/7, but only one side has conceded more than Los Merengues inside the top five and, importantly, only seven of their 20 league wins have been to nil.
Alaves admittedly are not prolific in front of goal, with just 29 all season making them the fourth-lowest LaLiga scorers, but the signs in the last few weeks are positive and with Zinedine Zidane’s side well capable of shipping the odd goal even in wide-margin victories, there’s a strong case to be made for the away side making an impression at just a shade of odds-on.
Valencia v Deportivo (1730 BST, Sky Sports 2)
Two wins and a draw in their last four have seen Deportivo shuffle six points clear of the drop and while things could soon start to look grim again, their run-in doesn’t look too bad and Valencia have hardly been water-tight at home this term.
They’ve conceded a worrying 51 goals for the season so far and only Osasuna and Sporting Gijon have shipped more in front of their own fans in LaLiga.
Whether Deportivo can overcome match odds of 4/1 looks far from certain given their inconsistent profile but with Valencia there to be got at from set-pieces, it could be worth chancing defender Alejandro Arribas getting on the scoresheet.
He’s not scored in the league so far this year but has two Copa del Rey goals to his name and looks a massive price at 50/1 to open the scoring and 20s any time.
Granada v Barcelona (1945 BST, Sky Sports 1)
Lionel Messi’s four-match international ban has dominated the headlines in the run-up to the weekend’s action but it’s not hard to envisage the Argentinian staying in the spotlight when Barcelona head to Granada.
He’s been in unbelievable form for his club all season and added another two to his tally against Valencia last time out as his team bounced back from a disappointing trip to Deportivo the week before.
Messi hasn’t gone two games without scoring since way back at the start of the season and it’s fair to say he’s been a thorn in Granada’s side over the past few seasons, scoring 11 times from 10 games against the LaLiga strugglers.
The hosts are deep in trouble next to bottom and anything but a fourth straight defeat would come as a massive surprise.
One thing they have been showing in recent weeks is a bit of early steel - they’ve conceded a total of 10 goals in their last six outings but only two of them were scored in the first half. With that in mind there’s a temptation to look at going ‘over’ on the time of Barca’s first goal, which is set at the 25-minute mark.
They’ve scored the vast majority of their recent goals in the second half of games and that’s perfectly understandable given they have the individual talent to rip tired teams to shreds after they’ve bossed possession for so long.
The second half to contain more goals looks nailed at at around even money but sticking with a red-hot Messi looks even safer and he’ll be determined to make his mark at the end of a week of indignation.
Posted at 1000 BST on 30/03/17.