Sergio Ramos: Real Madrid defender celebrates his goal in the 2015/16 Champions League final

LaLiga betting tips: Free Spanish football betting tips & previews including Real Madrid's bid to win the title

By Sporting Life

Football

Thu July 16, 2020 · 4y ago

Mark Stinchcombe previews a huge Thursday of LaLiga action as Real Madrid look to claim the Spanish title with a game to spare.

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Real Madrid v Villarreal

Real Madrid need two points to win La Liga and they can confirm the Championship here with victory over Villarreal. Since the restart they have been imperious, winning nine out of nine, keeping six clean sheets. It’s not something you would normally associate with the typically swashbuckling side, but they have been very machine-like, probably because of the strict schedule, they are playing slightly with the handbrake on, guarding against complacency. For example, they haven’t conceded a single goal in the first half of these games.

Villarreal have also performed well, winning six of their nine games, although all against sides you’d expect them to beat, but losing to Barcelona and Real Sociedad and failing to gain victory against Sevilla. There is a trend in both sides’ matches and that’s the lack of goals. Madrid’s games are averaging just 2.2 goals a game and Villarreal’s just 2.56. It’s unsurprising when you consider games are coming every three to four days and the temperatures in Spain. Another area casual observers may be surprised in is that Real Madrid possess the best defence in the league conceding only 22 goals in 36 games this season. However, this is not unexpected given they concede the second fewest shots per-game.

Real Madrid are 4/9 to make it 15 wins from 19 home games to claim a 34th La Liga title, but we can boost this to Evens by also backing under 4.5 goals. In the two sides' 18 games since the restart, the average goals between them is just 2.38, with 17 of them going under 4.5 goals (94%) including all nine of Madrid’s victories. In fact, 21 of Los Blancos' 25 wins this season have come this way (84%).

Bet: Real Madrid to beat Villarreal & under 4.5 goals at Evens

Getafe v Atletico Madrid

With just two rounds remaining, sixth-placed Getafe are looking to hold off the charge of the two Basque clubs in Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao to ensure European qualification and direct entry into the Europa League group stages. With just one win in nine and only six goals scored, this is a huge match against Atletico Madrid, especially with Bilbao facing a doomed Leganes. Atletico themselves will finish third or fourth and guarantee Champions League football, yet are unbeaten in 16 games as they look to finish the season strongly ahead of their Champions League quarter-final tie with RB Leipzig.

Last time I previewed a Getafe match we profited from the bookings market and I’m going back to the well again by backing Getafe to receive 40+ booking points at 11/10 and also 50+ at 5/2. The south Madrid side are the dirtiest team in the league and average 39 booking points this season. Against the top seven this increases to 52 points.

The referee for this clash is Antonio Miguel Mateu Lahoz who ranks sixth of 20 for yellow cards given per-game this season, so above average. He actually refereed a similar match towards the end of last season when Getafe were going for a Champions League spot against Sevilla, and awarded the Madrid club 55 booking points.

Unsurprisingly, Getafe concede the most fouls per game in the league at 18.9. Conversely, Atletico make the most tackles per game in the league so there will be plenty of times the players will clash here. Damian Suarez (14 yellows, 1 red) and Xabier Etxeita (7 yellows, 1 red) are both suspended yet there are still 10 other players with five yellows or more this season! In the reverse fixture, where neither of those two players were carded, Getafe still received 65 booking points.

Bets:

Athletic Bilbao v Leganes

Very surprised on the odds available for the home side here. In my season restart preview, I tipped Leganes to be the lowest scoring side and since then they have managed just five goals in nine games, with two of those being penalties. Overall they are the lowest scoring team in the league with just 26 goals. As previously mentioned, they lost Martin Braithwaite (six goals) and Youssef En-Nesyri (four goals) in the January transfer window and the top scorer Oscar Rodriguez (nine goals), has missed the last five games with injury and is doubtful again here. No one else in the squad has scored more than one goal all season. That’s just seven goals across the whole club over a staggering 427 games combined. They’ve lost 10 of 15 against the top 8 (67%) and I expect another one here to finally confirm relegation with them sitting four points from safety.

Athletic Bilbao have been at best functional this season but sit in eighth and still with a chance of European football next season. They’re three points adrift of the aforementioned Getafe and Real Sociedad, who have two tough fixtures to finish the season in Atletico Madrid and Sevilla.

Bilbao have the third best defence in the league and for me I almost foresee this bet as basically being the same as backing Bilbao just to score - given Leganes’ woes in front of goal. Against the bottom nine at the San Mames their record reads W5 D3 L0 F13 A3 (+10), so just three goals conceded and two of those consisted of an own goal and a penalty. Bilbao won the reverse fixture 1-0 and a similar result is likely here.

Bet: Athletic Bilbao to beat Leganes at 4/5

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Odds correct as of 1133 BST on 15/7/20