Liam Kelly has landed nine of the last 13 tips in his La Liga column. He searches for more value in the next round of fixtures.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
2pts Over 14.5 Girona shots v Elche at 4/5 (Unibet)
1.5pts Celta Vigo to beat Mallorca and Under 3.5 Goals in the match at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
Celta Vigo v Mallorca
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 2, LaLigaTV
- Celta Vigo 4/5 | Draw 23/10 | Mallorca 4/1
Mallorca's three goals scored and 2.05 expected goals for (xGF) created last time out was a significant outlier in their season, especially away from home.
The 3-3 draw with Real Valladolid accounts for 25% of Mallorca's goals scored as visitors, averaging 0.87 xGF per game across the rest of their away La Liga matches.
If Mallorca can be expected to struggle going forward, then CELTA VIGO TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS IN THE MATCH makes sense as a betting angle.
Celta came from two goals down to rescue a late draw at Sevilla last weekend, a game of few chances despite the 2-2 scoreline.
They've lost just one game at home in 2023 (versus Atlético Madrid) and often perform very well at the Balaídos, allowing a solid average of 1.00 expected goals against (xGA) per game this term.
Carlos Carvalhal's side are simply a better team than Mallorca and should beat them, hopefully with three goals or fewer in the game.
Score prediction: Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (12/04/23)
Girona v Elche
- Kick-off time: 13:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 2, LaLigaTV
- Girona 1/2 | Draw 16/5 | Elche 11/2
Off the back of an excellent 0-0 draw with Barcelona at the Camp Nou, Girona head to the opposite end of the schedule spectrum and to the easiest game on their fixture list.
After all, hosting Elche has been a breeze for the majority of La Liga teams this season. Sunday's visitors have lost 10 of their 14 away matches, posting a dire -28.6 expected goal difference (xGD) on the road.
That's part of the reason why OVER 14.5 GIRONA SHOTS is a solid value play at 4/5 with Unibet.
Girona average 13.9 shots per game as hosts this term and only three teams have scored more home goals than Michel's side — Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético Madrid.
Indeed, a total of 10 of the top 11 La Liga matches for most Girona shots have come at the Montilivi. The sole away match in that list? At Elche, where Girona had 21 attempts at goal.
Elche have only allowed fewer than 15 shots on their travels twice during this relegation campaign, conceding an average of 18.3 shots per game as an away side.
Score prediction: Girona 3-1 Elche (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (12/04/23)
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