Liam Kelly searches for more value in the next round of La Liga fixtures, looking to continue a profitable spell.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
2pts Over 10.5 Real Valladolid shots v Osasuna at 17/20 (Unibet)
1pt Sevilla to beat Mallorca at 10/11 (General)
Real Valladolid v Osasuna
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 2, LaLigaTV
- Real Valladolid 7/4 | Draw 21/10 | Osasuna 17/10
After a very promising end to the transfer window, Real Valladolid were most certainly a team to put in the notebook in terms of improvement.
Unfortunately for one of our bets last week, their upswing may have started slightly sooner than I anticipated.
Beating an in-form Real Sociedad side 1-0 at the Anoeta is no mean feat, lifting Real Valladolid four points above the relegation zone entering this weekend, and hosting Osasuna represents another opportunity to gain points.
They offer some value in the match odds, but OVER 10.5 REAL VALLADOLID SHOTS is my main fancy of the La Liga weekend at a price of 17/20 with Unibet.
Osasuna have been shipping more chances recently, most notably against Elche and Espanyol, and Real Valladolid average 12.5 shots per game at home this term.
As a result, Pucela should breach the 10.5 line on Sunday.
Score prediction: Real Valladolid 2-1 Osasuna (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1800 GMT (09/02/23)
Sevilla v Mallorca
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 2, LaLigaTV
- Sevilla 10/11 | Draw 21/20 | Mallorca 15/4
I’ve been critical of Sevilla’s level throughout the 2022/23 season, performing at a poor standard for a club that often excelled for so long.
However, the price of Jorge Sampaoli’s side to beat Mallorca at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán is simply too big. SEVILLA TO WIN is value at a shade of odds-on.
Last weekend’s heavy defeat to Barcelona showed just how far off the pace Sevilla are when it comes to the very best in La Liga, but better displays in home wins against Getafe, Cádiz and Elche suggest they can dispatch Mallorca as hosts.
Despite picking up 11 points on the road this season, the Balearic Islanders are, understandably, a far better team when playing in Palma.
Mallorca have been beaten to nil across their last three away matches, failing to trouble the defence of Getafe (0.46 xG), Osasuna (0.71 xG) and Cádiz (0.38 xG).
Those are not especially difficult teams to play against, so visiting a Sevilla team that has posted a +4.59 expected goal difference (xGD) in their last three home fixtures can end in defeat.
Score prediction: Sevilla 1-0 Mallorca (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)
Odds correct 1800 GMT (09/02/23)
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