Fulham v Aston Villa preview: Free Premier League betting tips, latest odds, team news, stats, TV & kick-off times

Recommended bets

1pt Under 2.5 total goals at 5/6

1pt Tyrone Mings to have 1+ total shots at 11/4

0.5pt Ezri Konsa to score anytime at 22/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Fulham v Aston Villa

• 5.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match odds: Home 15/8 | Draw 23/10 | Away 29/20

There's a lot to be impressed about when it comes to Aston Villa.

Dean Smith used the three-month hiatus to make a plan for survival, and it worked. He has spoken openly about the focus that was given to set-pieces at both ends of the pitch, and on making Villa tough to beat.

From holding the second-worst defensive record in the Premier League, they're now more in keeping with a top-half team, having conceded just 11 goals in 11 top-flight games - seven of those came against Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea.

During their current seven-match unbeaten run in all competitions, Villa's defence has been breached only three times.

The goals may have dried up at the other end too, with just eight scored in their 11 post-lockdown league fixtures, but Smith's conscious effort to rein his team in in pursuit of improved results has undoubtedly proved successful.

Their games have been tight, with nine seeing under 2.5 goals. It's 5/6 for that to happen again on Monday, and just about a good enough price for me to take it. I'm not sold on any result, so I won't be looking for extra value there on this occasion.

Fulham have looked all at sea defensively since returning to the top flight, and while a 3-0 home reverse against a side the quality of Arsenal could be quickly brushed over, to then concede four at Leeds will have had alarm bells ringing.

Perhaps Scott Parker will turn to some of his second string players, who have managed clean sheets in both their midweek Carabao Cup wins, albeit against lower league opposition.

But for the majority of their matches following lockdown, Fulham were involved in low-scoring contests.

Seven of their final nine Sky Bet Championship fixtures, including the play-offs, involved under 2.5 goals in 90 minutes. Parker will surely be aiming for a return to that resolute model, and against a Villa team who don't see many goals themselves, under 2.5 at 5/6 is the bet.

Alongside creating a firm, reliable base, the second part to Smith's survival plan has been just as effective.

Six of Villa's eight goals since football resumed have been scored from set-pieces, with Trezeguet (2), Ezri Konsa (2), Kortney Hause and Ahmed Elmohamady finding the net.

As well as being cut apart in open play, Fulham have conceded from corners against both Arsenal and Leeds.

The defensive shortcomings of the newly-promoted teams in that area is something I wrote about after matchday one, and doubled-down on in our most recent Premier League punting pointers. Combine that with Villa's recent record of scoring from those situations and the Cottagers could be in trouble.

Despite finding the net in their most recent league win at Sheffield United, Konsa is 22/1 to score anytime. I simply cannot ignore that to small stakes.

For some reason Tyrone Mings is shorter in the goalscorer market than his centre-half partner, but longer when it comes to shots. He had one attempt against Sheffield United and also chose to tee up Konsa for a match-winning assist when a second opportunity was on - the England international is 11/4 to have 1+ total shots.

In their three fixtures this season, Villa's centre-backs have had a combined five shots.

Konsa is 9/4 across the board to have a single attempt, so I wouldn't blame you for backing both. But Mings has the price.

Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Best Bets:

• Under 2.5 total goals at 5/6
• Tyrone Mings to have 1+ total shots at 11/4
• Ezri Konsa to score anytime at 22/1

Opta facts

• Fulham have won six of their last eight meetings with Aston Villa in all competitions (L2), winning each of the last three in a row (2017-18 Championship, 2018 Championship play-off final and 2019-20 FA Cup).
• Following a six-game unbeaten run in Premier League meetings with Fulham (W3 D3), Aston Villa are winless in their last four clashes in the top-flight (D1 L3).
• Only West Ham United (45) have lost more games against newly-promoted opposition than Aston Villa (43) in Premier League history, with the Villans suffering six defeats in their last nine such away games (W2 D1).
• Aston Villa have earned just one point from their last 30 available in Premier League matches in London (D1 L9), since beating Tottenham 1-0 in April 2015.
• None of Fulham’s last 21 Premier League games have finished level, with the Cottagers winning just five of these (L16), and shipping 45 goals in the process.
• Aston Villa are looking to open a Premier League campaign with back-to-back victories for just the third time, with the Villans also doing so in 1995-96 and 1999-00.
• Aston Villa haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 26 away games in the top-flight, since a 0-0 draw vs West Brom in January 2016.
• After a 10-game winless run between February-July (D2 L8), Aston Villa are now unbeaten in their last five Premier League games (W3 D2). They last had a longer run without defeat in the competition between May-October 2011 (10 games – W4 D6).
• Since his debut for the club in February 2018, Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored 39% of Fulham’s league goals (51/131, excl. play-offs). Their next highest scorer in that time is Tom Cairney with 13.
• Of all Premier League goalkeepers to make at least 10 starts in the competition, only Alisson (51% - 35/69) has kept a higher proportion of clean sheets than Aston Villa ‘keeper Emiliano Martínez (50% - 7/14). The Argentine kept a clean sheet and saved a penalty on his debut for the Villans last time out.

Odds correct at 1645 BST 25/09/20

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