Football betting tips: Sky Bet EFL 24/25
Premier League
4pts Southampton to be relegated at 6/4 (BetVictor)
I thought the gap between the Euros and the start of the season would be longer.
I have a list of things I wanted to do on the fridge; go to Greece (not booked it yet), catch a 20lbs+ carp (not caught it yet) and climb Snowdon (completed it mate). One out of three, a great success.
What I have done is roar on Fiji in the rugby sevens at the Paris Olympics, cheer on Neal Shipley at the 3M Open (backed him because he has the same name as a former Sheffield United striker) and watched a lot of friendlies. Plenty of time has been spent at the Impact Arena and even though it is coming around quicker than expected, I can’t wait for the football to come back.
In the first edition of this season's 'Jimmy's Punt' I'll share some outright fancies and thoughts for the upcoming campaign.
Not so defensive midfielders
Brighton have the youngest manager in Premier League history and his cutting-edge tactics present us with betting opportunities.
It is not worth getting bogged down with the ins-and-outs of Fabian Hurzeler’s system (Tom 'Duffman' Carnduff has done that in his Notebook), the main takeaway is the two holding midfielders' attacking output.
At Hurzeler’s former club St Pauli, Jackson Irvine and Marcel Hartel combined to score and assist 66 goals in two seasons. In the season just gone, Hartel finished with 17 goals (2nd highest total in 2. Bundesliga) and a league-high 12 assists (1st).
On paper, the pair played as central midfielders but in reality they were much more attacking which is why they racked up a lot of offensive output.
So, now all we have to do is wait to see who will be Hurzeler’s central midfielders.
Stubborn Saints
Southampton’s style of play worries me as they get ready for a season in the Premier League.
The Saints conceded 63 goals on their way to promotion last term. For context, relegated Birmingham conceded 65.
In the last five seasons, only two of the 15 teams promoted from the Championship had conceded more than 50 goals en route to the top flight. Only one side conceded fewer goals in the top tier than they did in the Champ. Any guesses who that team was? Yep, the mighty Sheffield United in 19/20.
It seems likely then that Russell Martin’s side will concede more goals this season than they did last, and with the gulf between the top two divisions ever increasing, they could be set for an instant return to the second tier.
Five seasons ago, the three promoted sides saw a 12% increase in goals conceded after promotion. Last season, the three new-boys saw a 148% increase. Granted, it was a particularly woeful campaign for Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton, but these averages have been increasing year-on-year (almost).
- 2018/19 - 12%
- 2019/20 - 44%
- 2020/21 - 81%
- 2021/22 - 64%
- 2022/23 - 148%
Martin is a highly regarded coach but also a stubborn one. He isn’t one to abandon his principles after a few bad results so I am going to take a punt on SOUTHAMPTON TO BE RELEGATED.
Already advised
Championship
6pts Luton to finish in the top six at 6/5 (General)
2pts Hull to be relegated at 9/1 (General)
2pts e.w. Emmanuel Latte Lath top scorer at 14/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4)
League One
8pts Rotherham to finish in the top six at evens (Sky Bet)
1pt e.w. Sam Smith top scorer at 28/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4)
League Two - *Added 05/08/24*
0.5pts e.w. Ronan Curtis top scorer at 150/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Hats off
Not a lot was expected of LUTON in the Premier League. Considering they made an immediate return to the Championship, it looks like they didn’t achieve a lot either, but this isn’t the case.
The Hatters were the favourites to go down but finished higher than the other two promoted sides and now return to the second tier with a much stronger squad than when they left.
Thomas Kaminiski, Mads Andersen, Jacob Brown, Marvelous Nakamba, Tahith Chong, Tim Krul, Chiedozie Ogbene and Andros Townsend are now amongst the Hatters' ranks, to name a few.
Rob Edwards also remains in the dugout at Kenilworth Road and a lot can be said for consistency.
When he took over half way through the season at Kenilworth Road (22/23 season) only Sheffield United and Burnley took more points then Luton’s 50.
At 6/5, the Hatters price TO FINISH IN THE TOP 6 looks absolutely massive.
Toothless Tigers
Hull chairman Acun Ilıcalı's decision to sack Liam Rosenior and replace him with Tim Walter has really confused me.
He claims it was actually down to the pair's differing philosophies saying: “Liam has a way of football thinking and football philosophy that I completely respect, but the football I want to see in my team is not the style Liam was playing.
“I think he’s successful, I think he’s okay, but there is a dream for me of the football club playing the style of football which does not match with his style. This is natural in football.”
Sacking a successful manager to improve the style of play usually works out doesn’t it? Especially in the Championship. Wayne Rooney and Birmingham last season cough cough. He took the Blues from the play-offs to a relegation dog-fight that they went onto lose, so the writing could be on the wall for the Tigers.
New man Walter does not have a glowing CV; he was sacked from his last two jobs in Germany.
Then factor in Hull's exports. Jacob Greaves, Jaden Philogene, Ozan Tufan, Ryan Allsop, Aaron Connolly, Liam Delap (loan) and Fabio Carvalho (loan) have all departed the club this summer.
It means the Tigers have lost over 79% of their 68 goals from last season. Full-backs Ryan Giles and Cody Drameh are the only official signings so far but the Tigers are sniffing around the Turkish Super Lig.
After losing a great manager and the spine of their team, HULL's price TO BE RELEGATED looks big at 9/1.
Full of beans
Micheal Carrick’s system at Middlesbrough creates plenty of chances for strikers.
Chuba Akpom finished the Championship’s top goalscorer in 2022/23 with 28. To put that into perspective, his next best domestic tally to date was 11 in the season just gone in Eredivisie. Cameron Archer also netted 11 times and Marcus Forss bagged 10.
Last campaign, EMMANUEL LATTE LATH struck 16 times (5th most in Championship), hitting a real purple patch in spring when going on to score 11 times in 13 starts from March onwards, and his price to finish TOP SCORER appeals.
Assuming the frontman can pick up where he left off we should get a run for our money this season.
Can't keep the big man down
Steve Evans is back at Rotherham.
The Scotsman masterminded back-to-back promotions in his first stint at the club via the automatic spots in Sky Bet League Two and the play-offs in League One. He then steered the Millers to second tier safety with a game to spare, rocked up to their last game in a sombrero, shorts and sandals and then left the club despite having two years left on his contract.
You know what you are going to get from a Steve Evans side. Ugly, direct, yet successful football. Nine promotions in 30 years of management show as much.
Evans has taken charge of over 1,000 football games and has won over 500, mostly with underdogs, so imagine the damage he could do with a top six budget.
His return to South Yorkshire has seen a switch behind the scenes at the New York Stadium.
Rotherham tried to embrace modernity under Leam Richardson, hiring him as a head coach and employing a director of football to oversee the operation. This has been scrapped ahead of the new season. Evans has full control of the side and transfers and has wasted little time in the summer transfer window, signing 12 players.
Jonson Clarke-Harris is the standout but Cameron Dawson, Sean Raggett, Liam Kelly and Joe Rafferty represent some shrewd business.
The even money about ROTHERHAM TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX looks large.
Dead ball specialists
Evans relies heavily on set pieces. At his last two clubs, Stevenage and Gillingham, 30% of the 213 goals the clubs scored across four seasons came from dead ball situations.
Boro centre back and captain Carl Piergianni netted 11 goals in two seasons under Evans (0.13 goals per 90) and Connor Ogilvie scored eight goals in 78 starts at Gillingham (0.11 goals per 90).
I will be eagerly waiting on the team news for their opening day match with Exeter to find out the centre back partnership.
If I had to hazard a guess, I would fancy Sean Raggett to feature.
The former Portsmouth man has netted 29 domestic goals (0.09 goals per 90) so will be keeping an eye out for his goalscorer prices in the early stage of the season.
I have watched every one of his 17 Pomey goals via the thread above (I cannot recommend it enough). Unsurprisingly, the majority of his strikes were headers (12) and the majority are from set pieces (10) and if they are not from set pieces, they are from the second phase of set pieces (2).
Raggett’s other five Pompey goals came from open play, there was only one thunderbastard and the other four came when he just decided to march forward into the box.
Someone else worth considering is Hakeem Odoffin.
The defensive midfielder has netted eight times across the last two seasons. Only one has come from a set piece but having watched the Millers' game against Alfreton, Odoffin looks to be a clear threat.
Price to die for
Alfie May leads the top goalscorer market in League One at 4/1. There is every chance he is competing with Jay Stansfield upfront if rumours are to be believed.
May has scored over 20 goals in each of his last three seasons in the third tier but where is the fun in backing him to top the charts this term?
At 28/1, I'd much rather be on Reading’s SAM SMITH to finish as TOP SCORER.
Smith has hit 43 goals across his last three seasons in this division, posting a goals per 90 average of 0.41 and should take the Royals' penalties this campaign.
Rubén Sellés worked miracles at the Madejski last term where off the field issues hampered Reading’s campaign. Despite a six point deduction, Sellés’ side finished nine points above the dotted line and scored the most goals (68) of any side outside the top six.
With Lewis Wing and Harvey Knibbs in midfield, Smith should get plenty of service and looks value for an each-way bet.
Port Val(u)e
May I interest you in a 150/1 TOP GOALSCORER punt from League Two?
RONAN CURTIS falls somewhere in between too good for the fourth tier and past his peak.
After his career at Portsmouth was curtailed by an ACL injury, he arrived at Wimbledon at a crossroads but impressed for the Dons scoring plenty of goals and endearing himself to the fans with a last-gasp winner over MK Dons.
The winger netted five times in this division last term in just over 950 minutes of action (0.47 goals per 90).
Although Curtis has never been prolific, he hit domestic doubles in each of his first three seasons at Portsmouth in squads that shared around the goals.
Under the tutelage of Darren Moore, in a strong side, playing for one of five frontrunners for promotion, it’s a left field punt but Curtis top goalscorer is the play.
Odds correct at 1215 BST (05/08/2024)
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