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Jimmy's Punt: Premier League & EFL tips, predictions and best bets for this weekend

By Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
Football
Sun November 10, 2024 · 2M ago
  • Jimmy's Punt: Staked 88.5pts | Returned 92.66pts | P/L: +4.16pts | ROI 5%

Football betting tips: EFL

0.5pts No first goalscorer trixie in Sheff Utd vs Sheff Wed, Hull vs West Brom & Burnley vs Swansea at 811/1 (Betvictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

You can’t lose any bets if you don’t tip anything.

I’ll have to go on more holidays after last weekend's 'column' made a cool 0pts.

This weekend's picks begin and end in South Yorkshire with Barnsley vs Rotherham on Friday and the Steel City derby on Sunday.

As for the bets we have goals, cards, goals and cards and an ambitious result x keeper card combo for Saturday night.

Snoozy Sunday

  • Sheffield United vs Sheffield Wednesday (12:30)
  • Hull vs West Brom (13:00)
  • Burnley vs Swansea (15:00)

Tom Carnduff’s gone for a goals treble on Friday night in his column. I thought I should do the opposite for Sunday.

Sporting Life readers cashed in on the 0-0 draw between West Brom and Burnley on Thursday and with both sides back in action Sunday, I thought a rinse-and-repeat was worth a tout.

The last three Steel City Derbies have ended goalless and there is every chance another passes by without a goal on Sunday as two tentative teams square off at a price of 9/1. The Blades have not quiet clicked in attack but have just conceded seven times, a tally only Burnley can beat.

The Clarets host Swansea and Scott Parker’s side have failed to score in each of their last three games. The Swans have failed to net in five of their seven away trips this season. No first scorer at Turf Moor is 15/2.

Sunday’s other second tier game sees West Brom head to Hull, the Baggies have drawn their last six games, four ending 0-0. The Tigers are in a bit of a rut themselves, winless in six and drawing half of those games. It's 17/2 for yet another goalless West Brom game.

I’ll be taking NO FIRST GOALSCORER in all three games as a trixie and hoping for the snooziest of Sunday’s in the Championship.

Already advised

1pt Ben Doak to be carded in Middlesbrough vs Luton at 11/2 (bet365)

0.5pts Paudie O’Connor to score anytime in Bristol Rovers vs Lincoln at 12/1 (Unibet)

0.5pts Sean Roughan to score anytime at 14/1 (bet365)

0.5pts Tom Hamer to score anytime with 12/1 (Sky Bet)

1pts Erling Haaland to score 2+ goals in Brighton vs Man City at 4/1 (bet365)

0.5pts Erling Haaland to score 3+ goals at 18/1 (Boylesports)

0.5pts Aston Villa or draw (double chance) and Emi Martinez to be carded card vs Liverpool at 13/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pts Aston Villa to win win and Emi Martinez to be carded vs Liverpool at 33/1 (bet365)

Middlesbrough vs Luton Town

BEN DOAK’s assist for the opener at Loftus Road on Tuesday was described as wing wizardry but the wide man is not just step overs and pace, he’s got a bit of the dark arts about him.

The Liverpool-loanee has notched up four bookings in just 607 minutes of Sky Bet Championship action.

Three of the bookings were for fouls and one for an argument and with a cards per 90 average of 0.60, his price of 11/2 TO BE SHOWN A CARD is simply too big.

Bristol Rovers vs Lincoln

There is a big set piece mismatch at the Memorial Ground.

Bristol Rovers top Sky Bet League One charts for xGA from dead ball situations (10.97) and they host Lincoln who have scored 10 times from them this term.

So, the thinking is pretty simple: back the Imps centre backs TO SCORE ANYTIME.

PAUDIE O’CONNOR, SEAN ROUGHAN and TOM HAMER seem to be the settled back three when fit.

They have combined to score five goals already this term, averaging just under two shots per game between them. With all them at least 12/1, splitting stakes across all three is the way in here.

Brighton vs Manchester City

ERLING HAALAND has caught some flack recently.

Manchester City’s frontman has only netted four goals in his last eight appearances. The cheek, having previously scored 10 in eight.

The Norwegian is amidst a two-game long drought, during which time he has only managed to muster 10 shots and 2.31 xG.

Sarcasm aside, he did miss a penalty in the defeat at Sporting in midweek but a trip to the South Coast in the Premier League this weekend presents him with the perfect opportunity to get back among the goals.

Brighton have kept just three domestic clean sheets, their only one at the Amex in a 0-0 draw with Ipswich and their last three games on their own patch have seen the opposition net two times in each.

Against the big boys, there tends to be goals and, without getting lost in Fabian Hurzeler and Pep Guardiola’s complicated tactics, that is the basis of the following bets.

Considering the above, I cannot work out why Haaland is a bumper price to bag this weekend.

City’s frontman is available at 4/1 TO SCORE 2+ and 18/1 TO SCORE 3+.

In the Premier League, he’s netted 74 goals in 76 appearances which is a goals per 90 average of 0.97. As for braces and hat-tricks in all competitions this season, he has hit the double five times in 19 appearances and taken home the match ball twice.

Haaland’s all time Premier League stats are as follows:

  • Appearances: 76 (per 90)
  • Goals: 74 (0.97)
  • Braces: 19 (0.27)
  • Hat-tricks: 8 (0.11)

Liverpool vs Aston Villa

For the Champions League in midweek, I voiced my concern about the manner of Liverpool’s last six results (pre Tuesday’s game) and suggested fatigue may be catching up with them.

The Reds then duly steamrolled Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 to make me look a fool.

I don’t hold a grudge against Arne Slot’s side but I am going to oppose them again this weekend. Above all, I just think they might be a touch short as they host Aston Villa Saturday evening.

Chelsea went off around 16/5 at Anfield, the Villans are currently priced at 19/4.

Brighton could have put the game to bed in the first-half in the Reds' most recent league match and following the second-half turnaround Slot called for more consistency.

Prior to that, his side drew with Arsenal (great result), beat Chelsea (great result), beat Crystal Palace 1-0 and Wolves 2-1 with the second goal at the Molineux coming via the spot.

Liverpool are two points clear at the top of England's top-flight alongside sitting top of the Champions League but 16 games doesn’t feel like a big enough sample size to pigeonhole the Reds as anything just yet.

As for Villa, they have only taken one point from their last two league games. A late goal meant they dropped two points vs Bournemouth and a late capitulation in North London saw them concede three in the last 15 minutes and lose 4-1 to Spurs.

Unai Emery was imperious against the big boys last season though. Against the top three they:

  • Played: 6
  • Won: 3
  • Draw: 1
  • Lost: 2

Granted, they have not replicated that form this season yet but combining them WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE and TO WIN with a EMI MARTINEZ CARD at Anfield is worth a punt at the prices.

Martinez has notched up a staggering 15 cards across the last four seasons, one of which coming in his side's second-most recent trip to Anfield.

The final thing to note is referee David Coote has booked two keepers for ‘unsportsmanlike conduct’ in his last three top-flight games (Bart Verbruggen and Dean Henderson).

Odds correct at 1650 GMT (07/11/24)

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