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Jimmy's Punt: Premier League & EFL tips, predictions and best bets for this weekend

By Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
09:36 · THU October 17, 2024
  • Jimmy's Punt: Staked: 76pts | Returned: 92.56pts | P/L: +16.56pts | ROI: 22%

Football betting tips: EPL & EFL

Friday 20:00

1pt Draw in Leeds vs Sheffield United at 27/10 (bet365)

0.5pt No first goalscorer in Leeds vs Sheffield United at 10/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Kyle Hudlin to score a header in Newport vs Chesterfield at 9/1 (bet365)

Saturday 15:00

2pts Millwall to beat Derby at evens (General)

2pts Norwich to beat Stoke at 7/4 (William Hill)

1pt Louie Barry to score from outside the box in Charlton vs Stockport at 18/1 (bet365)

Sunday 14:00

0.5pt Wolves +1 handicap and Sam Johnstone to be carded at 18/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Wolves to beat Man City and Sam Johnstone to be carded at 42/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Just as the season looks to be settling into some sort of rhythm, the international break comes along and robs us of a weekend of wall-to-wall footballing action and these pesky breaks are getting more bloodthirsty. They took the top flight, second tier and the vast majority of League One this time around and who knows how far they’ll go in November.

I suppose it should be a welcome break but football provides the background to my weekend. Whether it's walking the dog, fishing, pub or whatever, football provides the backdrop and when it's not there, well, the weekend just doesn’t hit the same.

Nevertheless the full English slate is back and I feel re-energised by a few successful tips in the last column. I am not going to kid anyone, the card double was extremely lucky, one of the players booked for waving an imaginary card and the other for an ‘argument’ but the chance to dip into the player card markets in League Two is always worth considering.

I am also ridding us of the shackles of Donovan Pines and Ben Wiles this weekend. It is probably the right time to bid farewell to the latter, his P/L salvaging goals will be missed but I think his quick start to the season and the edge it brings has run its course. Watch him bag back-to-back-to-back braces now… Actually, I might have to cover the double for the next few weeks just in case.

I’ve got my eye on something in Friday’s feature Championship game, plenty for Saturday afternoon and a result/ keeper card double for Sunday.

Leeds vs Sheffield United

The Championship returns with a top of the table clash.

Sheffield United, second on only goal difference and a two point deduction, head to Elland Road to take on title favourites Leeds.

A Yorkshire derby, live, under the lights, on a Friday night. The perfect start to a weekend.

It's personal, for Chris Wilder anyway. He is not the biggest fan of ‘them muppets from Leeds’ and I don’t think they’re very fond of him either which only adds to the needle and hopefully, there'll be plenty of it because I can’t see much goalmouth action.

Leeds have shipped the second fewest xG in the division (7.52), trumped only by Friday’s opponents Sheffield United (6.11).

Looking at the goals Leeds have conceded in isolation, they have been unfortunate to ship as many as they have. Two penalties, one from range and the Illan Meslier error against Sunderland.

The Blades just don’t concede, not since Harry Souttar slotted into defence alongside Anel Ahmedhodzic and in front of Michael Cooper. With this trio at the back, Sheff Utd have not conceded in 540 domestic minutes.

Offensively, the Blades have not quite clicked yet.

Their games are settled on the finest margins, six of their nine games have been separated by a goal or less. The goals in the 1-0 wins over Watford and Swansea were own goals and the difference between the Blades and Derby was a Gustavo Hamer freekick.

It is hard to separate the pair on Friday. I expect a low scoring affair which is why taking the DRAW and NO FIRST GOALSCORER appeals.

Newport vs Chesterfield

Tom Naylor is suspended for Friday night's trip to Rodney Parade. Fair play to him for racking up five cards in just 11 appearances, he deserves a rest.

It could potentially leave Chesterfield lacking a little bit defensively. Naylor has played the majority of the season in central defence and Cheyenne Dunkley sat out of the 2-2 draw with Notts County.

It could spell danger against Newport County, a side with a 6ft 9in cheat code in attack.

KYLE HUDLIN has really developed his heading ability.

Having watched a fair bit of the frontman in the National League North, he didn’t really use his height to his advantage but that's changed in South Wales.

Hudlin has made four league starts, racked up six shots, half with his head, scoring twice and crucially both goals were nodded in. At the prices available, backing him TO SCORE A HEADER is worth a poke Friday.

Millwall vs Derby

Paul Warne has created a frenzied atmosphere at Pride Park and it is paying dividends.

Of the 12 point haul, 100% have been won on the Rams own patch, away from home they have played four, lost four and conceded nine times.

Unfortunately for Derby, they are on the road this weekend.

Statistically, the Den is not quite the fortress you are led to believe. MILLWALL have won 11 and lost 11 of the last 27 home league games since the beginning of last term. This season, they have been unfortunate to only take six points from four games though and their even money price TO WIN this weekend is worth a tout.

Stoke vs Norwich

NORWICH TO WIN at Stoke looks a valuable price, the form backs it up and the angle is laced with a bit of narrative. Perfect.

There was concern when the Canaries lost Jonathan Rowe, Gabriel Sara and Adam Idah in the summer. The trio combined to score 31 goals and they set up another 15 and it didn’t look like this creativity had been replaced.

That couldn’t be further from the truth, only leaders Sunderland (18) have scored more than Norwich (16) in the Championship this term.

Johannes Thorup’s side have won four of their last six games and netted three or more goals in half.

The narrative comes via the hosts bench. Stoke nabbed new manager Narcis Pelach from Norwich’s coaching staff. The Spaniard must have impressed sporting director Jonathan Walters but his Potters reign has not got off to the most convincing start.

Pelach has taken four points from as many games and won only once. Granted, it was a 6-1 thrashing of Portsmouth but this was largely down to Leicester loanee Tom Cannon who was in a clinical mood, bagging four times.

Charlton vs Stockport

In all honesty, I may have forgotten to tip the LOUIE BARRY angle over the last couple of weeks.

Luckily, he has not scored from outside the box recently. Stockport’s start man is still taking aim from range though as his shot map depicts.

This season, half of his 28 shots have come from outside the area, as have three of his five goals. At 18/1 backing Barry TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX is the way in at the Valley.

Wolves vs Manchester City

WOLVES prop up the division, winless with a solitary point having lost six of the opening seven games.

Manchester City have only lost more than six times in a season once during Pep Guardiola’s nine season long stint in-charge of the club.

So, a comfortable City win on Sunday? Wrong.

I’ll be combining a WOLVES WIN and WOLVES +1 GOAL HANDICAP (essentially double chance) with SAM JOHNSTONE TO BE CARDED.

At the prices available, it’s right on the cusp but I am a sucker for this type of bet and I think a Manchester City loss has been brewing for a few weeks now. Without Rodri, the Cityzens have been known to struggle.

In the Premier League this season, the Spaniard has only played 66 minutes yet City are unbeaten so what am I talking about?

Well, City have shipped the same xGA as Nottingham Forest (6.8) this term and conceded four times as many real goals as Liverpool (8).

Guardiola’s side are struggling to control games without Rodri and are conceding more high quality chances in transition. Just look at the game vs Fulham.

Granted, it is a bit of a stretch but I guess that's why the bet builder is over 40/1. Gary O’Neil did get the better of Pep last time these sides met at the Molineux and Wolves' stopper was carded that afternoon.

Odds correct at 0830 BST (17/10/24)

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