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Jimmy's Punt: Premier League & EFL tips, predictions and best bets for this weekend

By Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
16:21 · THU October 03, 2024

Football betting tips: Premier League & EFL

Saturday

1pt Donovan Pines to score anytime in Huddersfield vs Barnsley (12:30) at 16/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Ben Wiles to score anytime in Huddersfield vs Barnsley at 9/2 (bet365)

1pt Wiles to score 2+ goals at 40/1 (bet365)

1pt No first goalscorer in Sheff Utd vs Luton (15:00) at 11/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Vini Souza and Jordan Clark to be carded in Sheff Utd vs Luton at 24/1 (bet365)

1pt Birmingham to win from behind vs Charlton (15:00) at 19/2 (BetVictor)

Sunday

1pt Jhon Duran to score anytime in Aston Villa vs Man Utd (14:00) at 5/2 (bet365)

0.5pts Duran to score 2+ goals at 18/1 (bet365)

0.5pts Duran to score 3+ goals at 100/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

“It is time to hunker down and stick to your guns. We'll be proved right any day now.”

That day certainly didn’t come last weekend.

Four of the players tipped didn’t start, rendering much of what I had written irrelevant. The two remaining card picks committed two fouls between them which obviously went unpunished. Brilliant.

This could have all been salvaged by Louie Barry though as the 16/1 tip to score from outside the box ran clean through on goal at Oakwell, shot from outside the box but was foiled by the Barnsley keeper. To add insult to injury, Barry then went on to equalise in stoppage-time. From inside the box.

I got to watch all this unfold live in the flesh.

I’d spent the morning playing bubble football, getting bounced about an unforgiving artificial five-a-side pitch. The bookies then gave us a spanking in the afternoon before Louie Barry treated us to an excruciating evening at Oakwell.

This game.

Huddersfield vs Barnsley

I am not saying DONOVAN PINES is Barnsley’s best or most important player but the consistency in which the Reds drop points when he isn’t playing is interesting.

In League One games Pines hasn’t started, Barnsley have averaged 1.33 points per game and with him in the starting XI it is 1.83. In games where Pines has started, the capitulation when he comes off is shocking.

Pines played 80 minutes in the 3-0 win over Crawley, he scored the opener and was present for the Reds other two. Pines also completed the 90 in the win at Lincoln, the Imps' only league defeat this term.

Barnsley were also drawing against Stevenage when Pines was forced off with concussion and went on to lose 3-0. Two goals came from set-pieces and one from a goal-kick, which I think is the best example of his prowess in both boxes.

After failing to complete the midweek game with Wycombe (not because of an injury as far as I am aware), Pines is not guaranteed to start on Saturday but his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is significantly bigger than usual.

He has two goals in seven starts this term taking his total to four for the Reds.

Sticking with this all Yorkshire affair, BEN WILES ANYTIME GOALSCORER is getting a final tout.

The edge with this pick was the fast start Wiles makes to seasons, particularly in League One.

Including his three goals in nine appearances this term, eight of his 14 goals at this level have come before gameweek 10. That means 57% of his goals have come in the first 33% of the League One minutes he has played at the start of the season.

Another way of putting it is his goals per 90 average for the first 10 games is 0.31 and the rest of the season it drops to 0.11 and these averages are across three seasons and 88 appearances.

As ever, I’ll be having a small play on his price to SCORE 2+ GOALS.

Sheffield United vs Luton

Sheffield United are the only unbeaten side in the Sky Bet Championship.

This is directly down to their defence with no side in the division conceding fewer goals (3) then the Blades, who made it five clean sheets in a row in their win over Swansea on Wednesday.

It is down to Harry Souttar, Anel Ahmedodzic and Michael Cooper.

Since Souttar made his league debut, Sheffield United have not conceded a goal and barely given away a high-quality chance.

Barring their two-point deduction, Chris Wilder’s side would be level on points with Sunderland so it sounds strange to say but offensively, it has not really clicked.

The winner against Swansea was an own goal, the deadlock wasn’t broken at Fratton Park, Gus Hamer's free-kick was the difference against Derby and another own goal was the difference against Watford.

It means that backing NO FIRST GOALSCORER in Sheffield United games would have paid out in three of the last four games.

Luton’s misfortune in front of goal also helps, with the Hatters are underperforming their xG by 3.1.

As if I wasn’t stung enough by cards last weekend, I am ready to do it all over again.

Last season's matches between these clubs saw eight cards brandished and though the league and a lot of United's squad has changed, I think we could be in for another tasty clash. The referee should certainly facilitate one.

John Brooks flashed eight yellows in his only Championship game this season and averages just under four a game this term.

Sheffield United’s VINI SOUZA will be opposing JORDAN CLARK and the price of both players TO BE SHOWN A CARD appeals in a double.

The pair certainly don’t mind getting stuck in. They have seven cards between them already this season and a combined average of 4.3 fouls per game so things should get tasty as they compete at Bramall Lane.

Charlton vs Birmingham

I watched Birmingham’s win over Huddersfield with a keen interest on Tuesday, mainly because Ben Wiles was playing. Best ever.

The Terriers started quickly and pressed high, successfully too. They could have gone one up almost instantly and perhaps should have created more.

Their performance got me thinking, did they just give Nathan Jones the blueprint to getting a result against BIRMINGHAM?

The Blues have fallen behind in half of their eight league games, going on to win three of them.

No doubt, Birmingham have a top-end Championship squad and according to their captain, will be playing there soon. Their depth and quality is obviously a major factor in their ability TO WIN FROM BEHIND so while Charlton may start brightly, the visitors should have enough quality to extend their unbeaten run.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

The ease in which Tottenham dispatched Manchester United last Sunday should fill Aston Villa with confidence ahead of the pair's Super Sunday clash.

Even before Bruno Fernandes’ dismissal, Spurs had it all their own way at Old Trafford. United were trailing 1-0 at the time, outshot 3-12, Spurs had 60% of possession, twice as many shots on target as United and hit the woodwork.

Villa also have an extra day than their opponents to recover from European duties and this will help Unai Emery hatch a plan to beat Sunday’s visitors, which wouldn’t be too difficult considering the Red Devils' lack of tactical cohesion.

Everything points towards a home win but at the prices available, it's Villa's super sub who has caught my eye.

JHON DURAN is a bit good isn’t he.

He already has a catalogue of screamers for Villa and is chomping at the bit to start.

The frontman has taken the Premier League by storm, and all from the bench. He has the second best strike-rate in the division (39 minutes per goal) and his talents translated to the Champions League in midweek as he proved the difference in victory over Bayern Munich, nine minutes after his introduction.

Surely that is enough to earn him his first league start of the season.

At 5/2, bet365’s price for him TO SCORE ANYTIME is comfortably bigger than anywhere else.

The beauty of backing it with this firm is the bet is void if Duran does not start and there is every possibility as he is competing against Ollie Watkins. So, if Emery leaves him on the bench again, stakes are returned which I’ll be reinvesting on him to score when he comes off the bench.

Should he start, the prices about Duran to SCORE 2+ GOALS and 3+ GOALS have to be worth a punt as well considering his devastating form.

Generational wealth

Ben Wiles 2+ goals, no first goalscorer in Sheff U vs Luton & Duran hattrick at 45,550/1 with bet365

Odds correct at 1400 BST (03/10/24)

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