Sporting Life
Jimmy's Punt hero

Jimmy's Punt: Premier League & EFL tips, predictions and best bets for January 16-18

By Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
Football
Thu January 16, 2025 · 2h ago
  • Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 192.40pts | Returned 179.29pts | P/L -13.11pts | ROI -7%

Football betting tips: Premier League & EFL

Thursday 20:00

2.5pts Shrewsbury or draw (double chance) vs Wrexham at evens (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Shrewsbury to win and Jamal Blackman to be carded at 35/1 (bet365)

0.5pt Aaron Pierre to score first at 50/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Aaron Pierre to score anytime at 20/1 (Sky Bet)

Friday 20:00

1pt A red card in Burnley vs Sunderland at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.5pt A red card each team at 100/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt CJ Egan-Riley to be carded at 16/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt Wilson Isidor to be carded at 9/2 (bet365)

0.5pt Egan-Riley and Wilson Isidor to be carded at 18/1 (bet365)

Saturday 15:00

1pt Makhtar Gueye to be carded in Oxford vs Blackburn at 7/2 (bet365)

1pt Donovan Pines to score anytime in Bristol Rovers vs Oxford at 11/1 (Sky Bet)

Sunday 14:00

1pt Elliot Anderson to be carded in Forest vs Southampton at 9/1 (bet365)

*More bets to appear here...

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

There is hope for the column yet.

Yes, we are still in the red but the shift towards taking on the shortest priced sides won some points last weekend with Plymouth and Reading both picking up FA Cup results in 90 minutes.

The method still needs some fine tuning. I was trying to be a little too cute with the stakes but you live and you learn.

I'm still not over the fact Ben Hazard avoided a booking in Argyle’s win of the round at Brentford, I don’t think I’ll ever get over it. We’ll just have to take some solace in the fact we got a run for our money.

Hopefully, we’ll be on the right side of some selections this weekend with keeper cards, outsiders and goalscoring centre backs in the staking plan.

Shrewsbury vs Wrexham

It is all or nothing with Gareth Ainsworth.

A squad either buys into his whacky ways and siege mentality (see spell at Wycombe) or doesn’t (see stint at QPR) and it looks like this SHREWSBURY side are doing the latter.

That said it was a topsy-turvy start. Ainsworth began his reign with a shock 3-2 win over Birmingham, the Shrews then lost their next three games on the spin and conceded 10 goals in total.

Since the 4-1 defeat against Wycombe, Shrewsbury have taken six points from five games and looking at their brutal schedule, nine points from as many games under Ainsworth is not a bad haul.

Town have played four sides in the top half, two of the top three and host Wrexham on Thursday in a cross-border derby.

When you combine their uptick in results alongside Wrexham’s poor away form (W3 D4 L4), I think siding with the hosts WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE is a nice way in at New Meadow.

Ainsworth said in his pre-game presser that fans have warned him of the importance of winning this derby and he explained his hoarse voice was a result of relaying that sentiment to his players.

So, I would like to think his side will be pulling out all the stops to ensure a victory here and this is why combining SHREWSBURY TO WIN alongside keeper JAMAL BLACKMAN TO BE CARDED appeals at 35/1.

The keeper has been carded four times across his last 40 appearances, three for time wasting. Referee Simon Mather has also booked three keepers this term.

AARON PIERRE has scored twice under Ainsworth and interestingly, both were the first goals of the games.

His opener against Northampton was a rebound and came after a punt up the field from the goalkeeper. The other was against Birmingham from a set piece.

At 50/1 and 20/1, splitting a point across Pierre's prices TO SCORE FIRST and TO SCORE ANYTIME provide some interest at big odds.

Wrexham have conceded the joint-second fewest number of goals from set pieces in League One this term (4) but an expected goals against figure of 9.22 from dead-ball situations suggest they have been fortunate.

Set pieces are usually the difference in derbies as well.

Odds correct at 1240 GMT (15/01/25)

Burnley vs Sunderland

The cynosure of the Championship takes place on Friday as BURNLEY host Sunderland - second against fourth, two of the automatic promotion hopefuls, with only two points between them.

The visitors have a chance to go level with Leeds on points while the Clarets could go two points clear with the other two promotion contenders not in action until Saturday and Sunday.

Expect fireworks, because when the top four square off, cards have been on the agenda this term.

The seven top of the table clashes have seen 46 cards, four of which red. In the three games involving Burnley there have been 7.33 cards per game and two red cards, while Sunderland’s have seen 23 yellows and three red cards.

Considering this, at 5/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power, backing A RED CARD IN THE MATCH is worth a go, and I also couldn’t resist backing BOTH TEAMS TO HAVE A RED CARD at 100/1. The latter landed in Sunderland's trip to Sheffield United in November.

Sticking along similar lines, the player card market is worth a visit.

WILSON ISIDOR has drawn a card from an opposing centre-back in 12 of his 20 starts this season, and at least one CB has picked up a booking in each of his last seven outings.

Interestingly, three centre backs have been sent off against the Black Cats in Isador’s last nine appearances as well which is good news for the previous angle.

CJ EGAN-RILEY looks the most obvious candidate among Burnley's backline TO BE CARDED. He was booked in the reverse and has five in 21 appearances this term.

Coupling Egan-Riley with Isidor as a DOUBLE also appeals at 18/1, though given the Frenchman's record (five cards this term, three coming in his last six appearances) I'll also be taking ISIDOR TO BE CARDED as a single.

The final angle for this game is a keeper card combination that I simply could not resist, but with good reason.

Burnley keeper James Trafford

JAMES TRAFFORD is one of the best in the business, with Burnley’s stopper picking up four cards in the league this season.

Referee Anthony Backhouse has already booked Trafford for time wasting this term, one of three keepers he has carded in 20 appearances - one was cautioned in the first half and the other two were booked in home wins.

BURNLEY are unbeaten on their own patch (W6 D6) taking 24 points from the 36 on offer and 18 of their 26 league games this term have been separated by a goal or less.

Friday’s match should be no different, a fine margin affair, and if Burnley can get in front their keeper has shown he doesn’t mind running down the clock, and the referee has proved he won’t stand for any unsportsmanlike conduct.

That is why the home WIN alongside a Trafford card appeals at fortress Turf Moor.

Odds correct at 1200 GMT (16/01/25)

Oxford vs Blackburn

After a goal from the bench in the 3-0 win over Portsmouth in midweek, MAKHTAR GUEYE could return to Blackburn’s starting line up and his price TO BE CARDED is nice.

Gueye has four yellows and a red card in less than 1,000 minutes of Championship action this term.

His last card came at the Den before Christmas. He has started two games since and committed six fouls but a card has evaded him so he is due one and with a favourable referee appointment, the odds are in our favour.

Odds correct at 1410 GMT (16/01/25)

Bristol Rovers vs Barnsley

After DONOVAN PINES was slashed to 13/2 TO SCORE ANYTIME, I didn’t think he would feature in the column again but here he is at 11/1. You simply cannot turn odds like that down.

Pines has netted five times in 24 starts for the Reds and could add to that tally against Bristol Rovers, one of the worst dead ball sides in the division.

The Gas have shipped 13 actual goals and an xG of 15.45 from set pieces, the latter is the most in the League One.

Odds correct at 1400 GMT (16/01/25)

Nottingham Forest vs Southampton

ELLIOT ANDERSON is 9/1 TO BE CARDED, a staggering price.

The Scotsman has five league cards and excitingly four of them have come in 10 home games.

Operating on the left side of Forest’s central midfield, Anderson should be covering Tyler Dibling and the Saints man is a card drawing magnet.

Dibling has started 13 league games and at least one opposition midfielder has picked up a caution in seven games.

Anthony Taylor is the referee, he blows hot and cold averaging 3.58 cards per game in 19 league matches this season.

Two of his last four games have finished cardless but the other two have seen a combined total of eight yellows, one red and a penalty. I am hoping we get him in a card happy mood on Sunday.

Odds correct at 1700 GMT (16/01/25)

More from Sporting Life

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.