- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 226.4pts | Returned 225.44 | P/L -0.96pts | -0.4%
Football betting tips: EFL
Monday 20:00
1pt Jayden Bogle to be carded in Leeds vs Sunderland at 4/1 (bet365)
1pt Jobe Bellingham to be carded in Leeds vs Sunderland at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Bogle and Bellingham to be carded at 22/1 (bet365)
Leeds vs Sunderland
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 1/2 | Draw 3/1 | Away 21/4
The weekend's Championship action concludes at Elland Road with Leeds against Sunderland. It is first against fourth (might change over the weekend) and that only means one thing: cards.
In nine top-of-the-table clashes there have been 53 cards flashed, four of which red (5.88 per game) which includes the six bookings in the reverse.
JAYDEN BOGLE was the last player carded at the Stadium of Light and his price TO BE CARDED here certainly appeals.
Bogle has eight cards to his name this season, the most of any Leeds player, and averages a cynical 0.26 cards per 90 in the second tier. His price is a point too big.
JUDE BELLINGHAM’s price TO BE CARDED is also too big.
Bellingham is also his side's most carded player (8Y 1R), interestingly only one came at home and that was in the reverse fixture.
It would also be wise to combine the pair in a CARD DOUBLE at 22/1 with bet365.
Craig Pawson is the referee here. He has only dished out six cards in two league games this season but when he is in the mood, he can go card-crazy.
Across his last six second tier games, Pawson has dished out between zero and eight cards a match, brandishing one card or less twice and four or more on the other six occasions.
Already advised
Saturday 15:15
2pts Osasuna double chance vs Real Madrid at 7/5 (William Hill)
1pt Osasuna double chance and Sergio Herrera to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Osasuna to win and Sergio Herrera to be carded at 35/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:30
2pts Utrecht double chance vs PSV at 9/4 (General)
Saturday 18:00
2pts Santa Clara double chance vs Benfica at 11/10 (General)
Saturday 19:45
2pts Sint-Truiden double chance vs Club Brugge at 5/4 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
It's one of those weekends where domestic duty falls in between the first and second legs of huge Champions League clashes for a handful of clubs.
I have dubbed them all as UCL sandwich teams, and there are 14 potential banana skin clashes this weekend, giving us banana sarnies if you will.
It was an avenue which brought some profit for the column at the end of January, so I am keen to try and exploit it again.
It is a simple premise: teams with some jeopardy in their European games might slip-up domestically this weekend.
Last time I did it during the league phase, I earmarked 21 games and whittled it down to my three favourites by looking at the following:
- Points dropped post UCL games this season
- Average price when they drop points after UCL games
- Travel time in between their last game and next two
- League position
- Next opponents credentials
When I checked all the results of the potential games, 47% of the sides dropped points that weekend and all bar one one of those teams were odds-on to win.
So, I don’t think it is worth being as cute this weekend.
If a team's Champions League knockout game is in the balance and they are odds-on this weekend, we are backing against them and they’re in the staking plan. Simple as.
Osasuna vs Real Madrid
- Kick-off time: 15:15 GMT, Saturday
- TV: LaLigaTV
- Home 17/4 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/7
Manchester City took the lead against Real Madrid twice on Tuesday before Jude Bellingham landed a sucker punch at the death.
It was classic City to throw away the lead, classic Los Blancos to nick it in the way they did and it puts huge importance on the second leg for both clubs as it's still all to play for.
Carlo Ancelotti has not rotated too much this term but his side are in the midst of an injury crisis. Some defensive reinforcements might be ready for the return leg with Man City next midweek but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Don Carlo shuffle his deck at OSASUNA this weekend.
The hosts have picked up results in 10 of their 12 home league games this term, beating Barcelona and drawing with Villarreal at the Estadio El Sadar.
Real Madrid have dropped points in three of their eight games after European nights, most recently losing at Espanyol when priced at 3/10.
Although the visitors cannot afford to slip up in a fiercely competitive La Liga title race, the price about the hosts WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE has to be backed.
With card prices available for this game, it would be grossly irresponsible not to tip a OSASUNA TO WIN and WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE both alongside SERGIO HERRERA TO BE CARDED.
Thanks to Jake for pointing out this stopper's boisterous antics. He has four cards this term, one of which coming for time wasting in Osasuna's last home game against seventh-placed Real Sociedad - a game they won.
The referee is also a goody, he has carded five keepers in 14 Spanish games this term.
PSV vs Utrecht
- Kick-off time: 15:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: LaLigaTV
- Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 11/2
PSV trail at the halfway stage of their European clash with Juventus and with it all to do in Eindhoven next week, they might take their eye off the ball against UTRECHT on Saturday.
Post Champions League, PSV have only dropped points twice (W6 D1 L1) but their most recent three results raise eyebrows.
PSV were no longer then 45/100 in clashes with Nijmegen, NAC Breda and Heerenveen winning one, drawing one and losing the other with a goal-difference of zero, so there is certainly a chance they drop points this weekend.
The visitors are no mugs either. They are third in Eredivisie and have only lost one of their four meetings with the top four.
At the prices available, backing them to avoid defeat in the DOUBLE CHANCE market is the play.
Santa Clara vs Benfica
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Saturday
- Home 15/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 4/6
It is the same thinking in the Primeira Liga clash between SANTA CLARA and Benfica.
The hosts are fifth in the table, pretty imperious at home (W7 D1 L3) and have a respectable record against the top three, picking up results in two of their four games.
Benfica won at Monaco on Wednesday, which is part of the reason this one has a whiff of the night after the lord mayor's show.
On the whole, six wins in eight games post-Champions League is a good record but scratch the surface a little and there is encouragement for Santa Clara backers.
In their last three games Benfica have drawn with AVS when priced at 1/5, lost to Casa Pia at 7/20 and edged past Estrela when again 1/5.
Backing the hosts DOUBLE CHANCE is again the bet.
Sint-Truiden vs Club Brugge
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/2 | Draw 14/5 | Away 3/5
Club Brugge are honking after Champions League nights (W3 D3 L2) and they have been odds-on in all bar one of those eight games.
As the importance of their European nights ramped up, results in the Belgian Jupiler League tailed off. Most recently Antwerp (7/2) beat them 2-1 and Kortrijk (11/1) drew in Bruges in the game before that. Club Brugge’s most eye-catching blunder was the 2-2 draw at basement boys Beerschot back in November.
Saturday's opponents SINT-TRUIDEN sit in 14th but have only lost one of six home games against the top six and at odds against they are worth a go to avoid defeat, so we'll back them DOUBLE CHANCE.
Honourable mentions and yankees
It was a painstaking process trimming down the long list of Champions League boys into four teams worth opposing but you can’t back them all, or can you?
I have, and I wouldn’t put anyone off, though with small stakes of course. That is a 72,625,409/1 hail Mary 10-fold and a 10,225/1 double chance multi for the following fixtures.
- BOCHUM vs Dortmund (Saturday, 14:30)
- Man City vs NEWCASTLE (Saturday, 15:00)
- OSASUNA vs Real Madrid (Saturday, 15:15)
- PSV vs UTRECHT (Saturday, 15:30)
- Monaco vs NANTES (Saturday, 18:00)
- SANTA CLARA vs Benfica (Saturday, 18:00)
- Milan vs VERONA (Saturday, 19:45)
- SINT-TRUIDEN vs Club Brugge (Saturday, 19:45)
- TOULOUSE vs PSG (Saturday, 20:05)
- Sporting Lisbon vs AROUCA (Saturday, 20:30)
I have also combined the four sides in the staking plan (Osasuna, Utrecht, Santa Clara and Sint-Truiden) in a Yankee (0.1pt per x11 bets) just in case.
Odds correct at 1030 GMT (14/02/25)
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