- Jimmy's Punt tips - P/L: +8.76pts | 19.5% ROI
Football betting tips: EFL
1pt Josh Earl to be carded in Barnsley vs Stockport (19:45) at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Josh Earl to be sent off at 40/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Donovan Pines to score anytime in Barnsley vs Stockport (19:45) at 12/1 (bet365)
1pt Louie Barry to score from outside the box in Barnsley vs Stockport (19:45) at 16/1 (bet365)
I fixed the pond Monday morning, then went on a two-night long fishing session. Pretty fitting that I spend the start of the week around water after the column spent the weekend treading it.
Vini Souza’s card at 5/1 meant the six points staked on Saturday were returned to make a nice round 0pts profit. The weekend before we ended fractionally down as was the case the one before that so we’ll be looking to cap off a painfully average September here.
The usual suspects feature here and why wouldn't they? Their prices are holding. What am I going to do? Accept I am wrong, the bookies are right and their prices are correct? No chance.
It is time to hunker down and stick to your guns. We'll be proved right any day now.
This edition of the column is especially card centric, dipping into Friday and Saturday’s EFL feature games where there is a lovely blend of obliging referees and cynical players.
As ever, there’s also the opportunity for generational wealth at the bottom in the form of a 47,395/1 player red card Trixie.
Barnsley vs Stockport
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 29/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 17/20
Essentially, JOSH EARL is playing at left-back this season.
It isn’t unfamiliar territory for the defender but it does make him more susceptible for a booking.
He already has four cards to his name this season (7 apps) meaning he is only two cautions away from equalling last season's tally.
Earl has a cards per 90 average of 0.31 so the rare opportunity to back a League One player TO BE SHOWN A CARD must be taken here given the presence of the TV cameras.
Again, we have a very favourable referee. Declan Bourne has dished out 31 cards in seven games this season and six in his only appearance in League One.
Bourne doesn't mind flashing a red either, the two dealt this season takes him to six in 40 League One appearances.
Considering Earl has six career red cards across eight domestic seasons, the rare opportunity to back him TO BE SENT OFF has to be taken, especially as two of those reds came last season.
Rinse and repeat
There’s a lot of bets I don’t think are worth dropping yet but I am sick of writing about them every week so I have made them their own little section, no explanation needed although if you want one there are plenty here, here and here.
- Ben Wiles anytime goalscorer in Reading vs Huddersfield (12:30) at 11/2 (bet365)
- Ben Wiles 2+ goals at 50/1 (bet365)
- Hannibal first card in Oxford vs Burnley (15:00) at 9/1 (bet365)
- Louie Barry to score from outside the box Barnsley vs Stockport (19:45) at 16/1 (bet365)
- Donovan Pines to score anytime Barnsley vs Stockport (19:45) at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
Generational wealth
Already advised
1pt Adam Forshaw to be carded in Plymouth vs Luton (19:45) at 17/4 (bet365)
1pt Ben Wiles to score anytime in Reading vs Huddersfield (12:30) at 11/2 (bet365)
0.5pts Ben Wiles to score 2+ at 50/1 (bet365)
2pts Sydie Peck to be carded in Portsmouth vs Sheff Utd (15:00) at 16/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pts Peck & Andre Dozzell to be carded at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pts Peck, Andre Dozzell & Gustavo Hamer to be carded at 44/1 (Betfair)
1pt Forshaw, Peck and Earl to be carded Trixie at 75/1 (bet365)
Plymouth vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 11/4 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/20
What has happened to ADAM FORSHAW since he moved to Devon?
In just 19 appearances for Plymouth, the midfielder has picked up eight yellows cards (two yellows and a red in one game for clarity) which, hilariously, is a cards per 90 average of 0.77.
Compare that to his previous three seasons for Norwich and Leeds where he made 40 appearances and only notched up five cards. There must be something in the water down there.
At 15/4, the price TO BE SHOWN A CARD is worth taking regardless but when his direct opponent and the referee is factored in it looks even better value.
He’ll be tasked with containing Tahith Chong, the second-most fouled player in the division.
John Busby is the referee, a favourable choice averaging just under five cards a game this term.
Portsmouth vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 29/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 17/20
Talk about a perfect storm for cards.
Sheffield United’s trip to Fratton Park really does have it all.
Two cynical teams, a card-happy referee and great prices.
Portsmouth have the most bookings in the Sky Bet Championship (23) and the Blades rank sixth (16).
The official, Matt Donohue, should be pretty obliging as well considering he’s dished out 6.50 per game in four second tier appearances this season.
Most recently he oversaw the clash between Preston and Blackburn and although it was a game that had plenty of bite (get it?), Donohue certainly played his part in a Lancashire Derby, which saw nine yellows and two red cards.
This isn’t a 'hot streak' for him though, this is a referee who has averaged over four cards a game across 140 Championship games.
For the visitors, SYDIE PECK’s price TO BE SHOWN A CARD is the standout.
The 20-year-old replaced injured captain Ollie Arblaster in the middle of the park and adhered himself to the S2 faithful instantly with his all-action style.
Although he is tidy on the ball, it is his defensive aggression and all round passionate antics that interest us here.
In the League Cup, where he has played the majority of his minutes this term (180), Peck’s averaged 2.5 tackles and two fouls a game. He played 90 minutes against Derby last weekend and completed three tackles, committed two fouls and took to X (Twitter) after the game to post a cryptic gif but I assume it is some sort of housery.
His career is very much in its infancy but with three cards to his name across 11 starts (cards p90 0.30), the 3/1 Saturday is worth a punt.
Considering the other circumstances, it would be rude not to throw a few arrows at the card market here.
Combining Peck with Pompey midfielder ANDRE DOZZELL in a double also appeals.
Dozzell already has two cards this term and should be keen to get one over the Blades considering he had a lengthy trial at the club in the summer only for it to fall through.
If you want to be really greedy, why not throw in GUSTAVO HAMER in a treble.
The Blades’ star man already has three cautions this season, giving him a whopping total of 27 across 87 Championship appearances.
Odds correct at 1100 BST (27/09/24)
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