Football betting tips: Easter Monday best bets
Monday (17:30)
0.5pt No first goalscorer in Burnley vs Sheffield United at 13/2 (General)
1pt Gustavo Hamer to be carded in Burnley vs Sheffield United at 11/4 (bet365)
0.5pt A red card in the match between Burnley vs Sheffield United at 11/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.25pt A red card each team in Burnley vs Sheffield United at 125/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
I left writing the intro for Easter Monday’s column until after Le Havre’s trip to Paris, fully expecting the underdogs to pull off a scalp and scoop us about +1.7m pts profit.
They lost 2-1. What a shame but as their manager Didier Digard probably said to them on the way home: c'est la vie.
Good Friday went well - aside from stupid, rich, good at football PSG - Swindon battered Grimsby and Michael Cheek scored his 22nd domestic goal of the season to secure us some sweet ol’ profit.
I think it pays off to go for the jugular at this time of the season. None of this tippy-tappy double chance, edging your bets woke nonsense. I like said team to win, so back them to win then. Although, I must admit, Easter Monday’s slate is a little trickier than Friday’s so please be careful out there.
Burnley vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Monday
- TV: ITV1
- Home 19/20 | Draw 11/5 | Away 3/1
Oh baby. What a huge game in the Championship promotion race.
Not as big as it should have been. Thanks to a run of three straight defeats for Sheffield United against Oxford, Millwall and Plymouth.
Nonetheless, strap yourself in because this is going to be a ding-dong affair.
The consensus at Turf Moor is they get it (promotion) done on Monday evening. If Burnley beat the Blades they move eight points clear with six points left to play for.
The Clarets' title charge has been built on an almost impregnable defence.
They have already broken the record for most clean sheets and unless they concede 16 goals across their remaining three fixtures, they will smash the record for fewest goals conceded in a Championship season.
This stoic backline is why Scott Parker’s side rarely lose. It makes sense; if you don’t concede, you don’t lose games and the Clarets have only lost twice all season. They also haven’t been beaten on home soil (W12 D9).
It goes a little way to explaining their odds-on price to win on Easter Monday.
Burnley won 2-0 at Bramall Lane, 1-0 at Elland Road and held Leeds to a stalemate on their own patch.
In comparison, Sheffield United’s record against the top three reads played three, lost three, conceding seven and scoring one.
So, it certainly looks ominous for Chris Wilder’s side but at 13/2, I think there's just enough juice in backing NO FIRST GOALSCORER.
It is the same bet and same price as the 0-0 correct score but backing it this way gives the added security of a win if the only goals of the game are own goals.
Across Burnley’s 43 games, 29% have ended goalless and this bet has clicked on 13 occasions. Based on this record, 5/2 would be valued without considering the context of the fixture.
This angle makes for an uncomfortable watch but with the onus on the Blades, the host will want to make this as cagey as possible.
This leads me onto the next couple of bets, sort of.
Sheffield United’s poor run culminated in a complete capitulation after the full-time whistle at Plymouth.
“Going down fat boy” were the words allegedly barked by Wilder to an Argyle fan before a scuffle in the tunnel ensued.
Top-end Championship fixtures have thrown up heaps of cards this term and with the visitors teetering towards oblivion, this could get ugly.
There have been 11 clashes between the top four, I include Sunderland in this because they are well clear of fifth place, where a total of 64Y and 4R cards have been brandished.
That is 5.33Y per game and 0.33R per game so naturally the card markets are getting a visit.
GUSTAVO HAMER is 11/4 TO BE CARDED.
He is the joint-most carded player in the Championship (12), averaging more fouls (1.5) then tackles (1.1) per game.
At 11/2 backing their TO BE A RED CARD IN THE MATCH also appeals as does A RED CARD EACH TEAM at 125/1.
The clubs both rank in the top half for poor discipline and they have had five players sent off between them, two of which came in top of the table clashes.
Already advised
Monday (15:00)
0.5pts Michal Helik to score anytime in Cardiff vs Oxford at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Plymouth to win vs Coventry at 15/4 (bet365)
1pt Charlton to win vs Wycombe at 3/1 (bet365)
Cardiff vs Oxford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Monday
- Home 5/6 | Draw 23/10 | Away 7/2
I really fancied Oxford +0.5 Asian handicap at Cardiff due to the circus surrounding Omer Riza.
Aside from his dismal record since taking charge, his decision to refer to the fans as ‘clueless’ was a bold move.
Riza then compiled Cardiff fans' delusion in a truly bizarre post-match interview following defeat at Bramall Lane, where he appeared to admit he didn’t know what to do.
Draw you own conclusions:
Ultimately, his position became untenable and with Aaron Ramsey taking temporary charge until the end of the season, I’ll have to swerve the pro-Oxford angle on Monday. Absolute devastation.
I do have another pick for this match.
Since Cardiff’s loss in the FA Cup, they’ve conceded 13 goals and opposition centre backs have scored three of them.
Maxime Esteve (Burnley), Chris Mepham (Sunderland) and Michael Ihiekwe (Sheffield Wednesday) were the culprits.
Considering Oxford’s main threat is Will Vaulks' long throw, I think the U’s primary set-piece threat MICHAL HELIK is worth a punt TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Helik has netted five times this season, two of which coming across his last seven league appearances.
Plymouth vs Coventry
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Monday
- Home 7/2 | Draw 13/5 | Away 8/11
PLYMOUTH’s survival hopes were dealt a crushing blow at the Riverside on Good Friday.
With the game level deep into injury time, Middlesbrough were awarded a dubious penalty. Tommy Conway dispatched and Boro took the three points.
The draw would have moved the Pilgrims to within two of safety but now it is essentially four with their substantially worse goal difference.
Miron Muslic must dust his side off and try to bounce back against Coventry, something I fancy him to do at the prices available.
The Sky Blues head to Home Park occupying the final play-off spot, three points ahead of Boro in seventh and six clear of West Brom.
Perhaps Frank Lampard’s side peaked too early though. Having only lost four of his first 19 league games in charge (W12 D3), Coventry have lost three of their last seven.
Interestingly, they have lacked conviction against Plymouth’s relegation rivals recently.
Coventry lost at Derby, drew at Hull and edged past Stoke, Portsmouth and Oxford.
At 15/4, backing the hosts TO WIN appeals.
Form and standings aside, the price is simply too big. Coventry went off at 8/5 in their trip to Hull, 11/10 at Derby and just under even money at Oxford. They are generally 8/11 on Monday.
Plymouth have won 77.5% of their points at home and all bar one of their nine wins have come on home soil.
Although their Asian handicap price appeals, I think it is worth being a little bolder at this stage of the season.
From Sheffield United to Blackburn in the table, they have played seven games at home and are yet to lose (W5 D2).
Wycombe vs Charlton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Monday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 21/10 | Away 11/4
Am I missing something here?
CHARLTON are 3/1 TO WIN at Wycombe. It's too big.
In eight games against the top six, the Addicks have won half, only losing at St Andrew's.
Wycombe, on the other hand, have played the top six seven times and lost five. Each of those defeats are against the top four, where the Chairboys have conceded 10, twice as many goals as they have scored.
Mike Dodds' men made it three wins in as many games on Good Friday at Bolton in a gutsy albeit fortunate 2-0 win.
Charlton are in good form too though, unbeaten in five and look a chunk too big to me.
Odds correct at 1140 GMT (20/04/25)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.