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Jimmy's Punt: EFL and FA Cup tips, predictions and best bets for January 9-12

By Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
Football
Thu January 09, 2025 · 2h ago

Football betting tips: FA Cup

Thursday 19:00

0.5pt Sam McCallum to score in Sheffield United vs Cardiff at 16/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet)

Thursday 19:45

2pts Watford-Draw double chance vs Fulham at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

Saturday 12:15

1pt James McConnell to be carded in Liverpool vs Accrington at 11/1 (bet365)

Saturday 15:00

1pt DRAW in Reading vs Burnley at 10/3 (Sky Bet)

1pt Reading to win vs Burnley at 6/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Conor Hazard to be carded in Brentford vs Plymouth at 13/2 (bet365)

1pt Plymouth double chance at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Plymouth double chance and Hazard card at 33/1 (bet365)

Saturday 17:45

0.5pt No cards in Man City vs Salford at 10/1 (bet365, Betfair)

Goalscorer trixies

1pt Joao Felix, Phil Foden and Billy Sharp to score anytime at 12/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pts Joao Felix, Phil Foden and Billy Sharp to score 2+ at 714/1 (Sky Bet)

*More bets to appear here

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Everyone loves a longshot but at what cost?

The last few weeks, I have been on the right side of several chunkily priced outsiders but have nothing to show for it because of my love for keeper cards. Manchester United at Anfield the most recent example, I could smell an upset but we didn’t profit.

Over the course of the season we have had a keeper card-double chance/result combination click just once, yet since Christmas Day we have been on the right side of six of eight outsiders picking up results at nice odds (Fulham at Chelsea, Everton at Man City, Man Utd at Liverpool, West Brom at Sheffield United and Hull at Blackburn are some examples).

Time to re-think, I think.

Last weekend, I thought I’d cracked it by putting more weight on the referee appointments but didn’t account for something major: what if the goalkeepers don’t get a chance to waste time?

Even if the referee is willing, the game is perfectly poised and the keeper is chomping at the bit to run down the clock, the ball might not go out for a goal kick.

How do we fix it? Simple, rein it back just a little bit. Outsiders, when suitable, welcome to the staking plan. Sure, the keeper card combinations are going to stay but they’re no longer going to be the piece de resistance, but more of an amuse-bouche.

I am hungry for profit and for too long good picks have been foiled by sweet, sweet keeper cards.

What a weekend to take on some short-priced favourites as well: FA Cup third round.

Sheffield United vs Cardiff

Sheffield United are thin on the ground and Chris Wilder is not usually one to play the big hitters in the FA Cup third round.

You could certainly make a case for Cardiff at 100/30 but instead I have been suckered in by the 16/1 about SAM MCCALLUM TO SCORE ANYTIME.

A full-back by trade, he has often featured for the Blades from the bench in more advanced positions this term and with Harry Boyes and Rhys Norrington-Davies also options at left-back, there is every chance McCallum is utilised higher up the pitch on Thursday.

McCallum is by no means a goalscorer with eight in 177 appearances but he has netted once this term for the Blades in just 535 domestic minutes.

More importantly, Cardiff have kept only five clean sheets in 27 games, none in their last 13, and the majority of the shots they concede come from their right hand-side.

As with any bet, this is a price play. This angle is as short as 8/1 with some firms but I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off the 14/1 available generally.

Fulham vs Watford

Taking over in March 2024, Tom Cleverly has only had this season's Carabao Cup clash at the Etihad to show us his metal in the cup competitions.

I’m not one to put too much weight on one fixture, or maybe I am...

Cleverly did not rotate much against Manchester City, so we can only assume he is a cup enthusiast. What is more, his WATFORD side were robbed of a result. City, who were good at the time, won 2-1 on the night but Kwadwo Baah had an equaliser wrongfully ruled out in my opinion.

As I say, it would be flimsy to base an angle purely off one game but Fulham’s cup record under Marco Silva is encouraging for us because he likes to rotate.

They have been known to make hard work of lower league opposition. In the FA Cup third round last season, Fulham narrowly beat Championship basement boys Rotherham 1-0 in a game they went off 2/11 to win.

In the EFL Cup this term, Preston knocked them out in the second round after 31 penalties and in 2022/23, League Two Crawley beat them 2-0.

All things considered, I think it is easier to make a case for the Championship outsiders Watford, especially at the prices.

Backing the visitors WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE appeals.

I really had to resist the urge to split a 2pt stake across a draw and away win but the double chance is simply the superior value.

Fulham have drawn 45% of their fixtures this term, the fifth highest percentage in England’s top four divisions, six of which coming across their last eight games.

Liverpool vs Accrington

JAMES MCCONNELL is a whopping price TO BE CARDED.

Over the past two seasons in Premier League 2, he has notched up eight cards in just 13 appearances.

For Liverpool’s first team, he has made two cameos this term spending just 32 minutes on the pitch and been carded once.

There are obvious question marks over if he actually plays at Anfield against Accrington on Saturday but he did make two appearances in this competition last season.

Backing the bet with bet365 gives us the added security of a void bet if McConnell is not included in the XI, so it is not like we're taking a huge risk.

Odds correct at 1430 GMT (09/01/25)

Reading vs Burnley

Scott Parker is a manager that has displayed a pattern of disrespect to our esteemed cup competitions. How dare he.

As a manager of exclusively top-end Championship and lower-end Premier League sides, he has never made it past the 3rd round of the Carabao Cup and the 4th round of the FA Cup. Burnley were knocked out of the Carabao in the first round this season.

Burnley boss Scott Parker

Parker’s most embarrassing result in this competition came at Bournemouth in the fourth round of the 2021/22 season when they lost 1-0 at home to non-league Boreham Wood.

With bigger fish to fry domestically, he’ll rest and rotate for the trip to the Madejski so at tasty odds, backing both READING TO WIN and THE DRAW are worth considering.

Backing double chance would guarantee more pts profit should Reading get a result but I really fancy the Royals to spring an upset in 90 minutes so I’m going big.

Noel Hunt is in the very early stages of his managerial career.

As a caretaker boss at Swindon, he took charge of two games and both were in the Cup. His side were knocked out of the FA Cup at the hands of National League North side Darlington. Hardly ideal but we can take some encouragement at the fact Hunt only made three changes from the XI in the game before.

For the Royals, he took charge just after their clash with Harborough Town went to extra time and I don’t think too much can be read into the EFL Trophy penalty defeat at League Two high-flyers Walsall. Hunt made nine changes for the second tier competition, his side equalised with 10 men and finished the game with nine.

The transition from Ruben Selles to him has been seamless though (W3 D2 L2) and I think he’ll fancy the chances of an upset this weekend.

Odds correct at 1430 GMT (09/01/25)

Brentford vs Plymouth

I couldn’t resist one keeper card for two very valid reasons.

The first is the keeper in question - CONOR HAZARD.

He has five cards in 33 Championship appearances across the last two seasons, two coming in six starts this term.

Hazaard was carded in the 41st minute of PLYMOUTH’s stalemate at Stoke last time out, and he was also carded in the first half for Northern Ireland for time wasting.

Referee Ben Toner is also a massive factor.

The whistleblower has booked 16 keepers in 23 appearances this term, I’ve never seen anything like it, and all bar one of them have been for running down the clock.

Only three of the keepers were booked in injury time, prime time. The average has been 54 minutes and the earliest Toner has lost his rag with a keeper is the 23rd minute.

Last season, Toner was also consistent with keeper cards, booking nine stoppers in 34 appearances, six of which for time wasting.

A point on the Pilgrims keeper Hazard TO BE CARDED certainly appeals, it all comes down to how long you think Plymouth can stay in the game at Brentford though.

The matchup pits the second best home side in the Premier League against the worst travellers in the EFL which is pretty damning, but Thomas Frank’s record at Brentford against lower league opposition certainly leaves a lot to be desired.

Excluding replays, since he took charge in October 2018, Frank’s Bees have played 13 games against sides at least a division below them, winning eight and drawing five.

This season alone, their clash with Sheffield Wednesday in the Carabao Cup went to penalties, they were trailing against Leyton Orient and it took Brentford 45 minutes to break down Colchester.

Over the years they have also failed to beat Newport (League Two), Gillingham (League Two), Cambridge (League Two), Oxford (League One) and Barnet (National League).

At 4/1, siding with the visitors in the DOUBLE CHANCE market appeals, as does the combination of a HAZARD CARD and a Plymouth DOUBLE CHANCE.

Odds correct at 1430 GMT (09/01/25)

Manchester City vs Salford

Manchester City are imperious in this competition and I actually think their poor run in the league is going to work in their advantage here.

Pep Guardiola must be desperate to maintain the momentum he has built recently with two wins on the spin and three unbeaten.

It is a competition Pep seems to respect, they have made the final in the last two seasons and the semi’s in the three before that.

Pep Guardiola with the FA Cup trophy

En route to the final last term, City scored 16 times and put five past Huddersfield in round three, in fact they have never scored less than three goals in this round of the FA Cup.

Their expected dominance interests me here because it could lead to a timid encounter cards wise.

Last season, there were NO CARDS in the Cityzens' trip to Kenilworth Road in this competition. Man City have also failed to pick up at least one booking in five of 11 FA Cup matches against lower league opposition at the Etihad since Pep took charge. Their opponents have also gone without a booking in three of those games, although the angle has not landed annoyingly.

Salford are the liabilities in terms of a card-less game.

Karl Robinson’s side have picked up recently, they sit third in League Two and have only lost two of their last 17, keeping clean sheets in eight consecutive fixtures.

The class of 92 backed club would also love to get one over next door neighbours City which could see a few cards flashed in their direction.

That said, at 10/1, backing a clean game appeals.

Odds correct at 1430 GMT (09/01/25)

Goalscorer trixie

  • Joao Felix (Chelsea vs Morecambe)
  • Phil Foden (Man City vs Salford)
  • Billy Sharp (Hull vs Doncaster)

JOAO FELIX is a whopping price TO SCORE ANYTIME should he get the nod in Chelsea’s clash with Morecambe.

Jake covered why Chelsea’s frontmen are worth getting onside at the Bridge here and with four goals in five Europa Conference League appearances, I fancy the Blues attacker to put the League two opposition to the sword.

Using the same formula, PHIL FODEN’s price in the same market also appeals. He boasts an impressive record in the FA Cup netting 12 times in 26 appearances, six of which coming in five third round appearances.

The final selection in the goalscorer trixie comes from Sunday where BILLY SHARP returns to his old stomping ground.

The veteran frontman has led the line in both of Doncaster’s FA Cup games this season and netted twice in last rounds win over Kettering (one in extra time).

I also cannot resist touting the same trio TO SCORE 2+ GOALS each in a trixie, just in case.

Odds correct at 1445 GMT (09/01/25)

Odds correct at 2200 GMT (07/01/25) unless otherwise stated

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