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Jake Osgathorpe's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 3

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sun September 01, 2024 · 4M ago
  • Jake's Predictions: Staked 20.5pts | Returned 11.59pts | P/L -4.91pts | ROI -24%

Football betting tips: Premier League

1.5pts Ryan Gravenberch to commit 2+ fouls in Man Utd vs Liverpool (16:00) at 7/5 (Unibet)

1pt Under 2.5 goals in Man Utd vs Liverpool (16:00) at 9/5 (Betfair, Boylesports)

Manchester United vs Liverpool

Generally, this has been a high-scoring game in recent years. Since Erik ten Hag took charge there have been five competitive meetings, with four going over 2.5 goals and three going over 3.5.

So naturally, I'm backing UNDER 2.5 GOALS in this edition. This is mainly down to the fact Arne Slot is in the dugout and not Jurgen Klopp, with the Dutchman much more controlled in his approach compared to the German's 'heavy-metal' style.

Klopp's all-out-attack presented United with the space they needed to counter, taking advantage of transitions, especially at Old Trafford, where Ten Hag is unbeaten against the Reds (one win, two draws in normal time).

Slot will be more cautious, looking to close those spaces and stifle United, who will also be looking to be tighter at the back after such a dismal 23/24 defensive campaign. At the prices, the under looks value to me.

I'll also have a second play on RYAN GRAVENBERCH TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS, an angle highlighted in last week's column that wasn't included in the staking plan, but that won.

In fact, the selection has won comfortably in both of Liverpool's games so far, and is due to Gravenberch's switch in position, playing as the 'six' in the Liverpool midfield, making him the second-to-last line of defence and meaning more defensive responsibility.

He committed five fouls away at Ipswich and two against Brentford. Meanwhile, United's opposing 'six' has committed two fouls in both games this season, which makes sense given the elusive nature of Bruno Fernandes, and an in-cutting Marcus Rashford and Amad Diallo. Gravenberch may also have to deal with countryman Joshua Zirkzee on Sunday too, who likes to drop into the number 10 position.

The Liverpool midfielder could be busy and is likely to get caught out as the 'destroyer' for the Reds.

Score prediction: Manchester United 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds:11/1)

Super 6 predictions for round 3

  • Leicester 1-2 Aston Villa
  • Everton 1-2 Bournemouth
  • N Forest 1-1 Wolves
  • West Ham 0-2 Man City
  • Newcastle 1-1 Tottenham
  • Man Utd 0-2 Liverpool

Already advised

1.5pts Carlos Baleba to commit 2+ fouls in Arsenal vs Brighton at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Carlos Baleba to be carded in Arsenal vs Brighton at 33/10 (Unibet)

2pts Over 2.5 Goals in Ipswich vs Fulham at 4/5 (bet365)

1.5pts James Tarkowski 1+ total shot in Everton vs Bournemouth at 23/20 (Unibet)

1.5pts Nathan Collins 1+ total shot in Brentford vs Southampton at 7/5 (Unibet)

1pt Kyle Walker-Peters 2+ total shots in Brentford vs Southampton at 10/3 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1.5pts Tomas Soucek to commit 2+ fouls in West Ham vs Manchester City at 6/4 (Unibet)

2pts Bruno Guimaraes to win 3+ fouls in Newcastle vs Tottenham (13:30) at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt Anthony Gordon to win 3+ fouls in Newcastle vs Tottenham (13:30) at 9/4 (Sky Bet)

It was a bloodbath last weekend, and not in the way we wanted. After tipping a load of fouls, we ended up with losing bets across the board, with the sweep only avoided thanks to a couple of voids.

We weren't a million miles away though. We backed Mats Wieffer to commit 2+ fouls and he didn't start, his replacement Billy Gilmour instead hitting that total. Meanwhile Lucas Digne made one foul before being subbed for Ian Maatsen.

Liverpool committed seven fouls in the first half and only three in the second to see that bet fall short, while Adam Smith didn't start on Sunday. It resulted in a losing weekend but such is the nature of the beast and nothing to be worried about heading into this one.

Still, you'll no doubt have been pleased to open this article and see a mix of bets this weekend, with some fouls but also some cards, shots and goals based-bets. It seems a nice variety, and hopefully it pays off.

Arsenal vs Brighton

First seven pars added 09:00 Saturday morning

It seems as though my bad luck selecting Brighton midfielders in this column continues.

The headline selection for the 12:30 game, Billy Gilmour, had been selected due to an injury to Mats Wieffer which meant the Scotsman played last weekend in the win over Manchester United.

However, despite new signing Matt O'Riley needing surgery, the Seagulls still elected to sell Gilmour on deadline day, meaning both Gilmour bets will be voided.

It is annoying, and now it becomes a guessing game as to who plays in the deep-lying midfield role, as really it's the position I was looking to exploit anyway rather than the player from a betting stand point - the reasons why can be read below as I haven't changed the original copy, just added these paragraphs.

With no Gilmour, Wieffer a big doubt and O'Riley most certainly out, I think we will see CARLOS BALEBA play in the 'six', just as he did in midweek, meaning I'm going to recommend backing the Cameroonian in both markets I had selected Gilmour for.

He is 33/10 TO BE CARDED and 6/4 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - he's as short as 7/5 and 8/13 respectively in places.

As already mentioned, the main reasoning for this bet is targeting the player who is deployed in the 'six' - which can be read below, but it is worth mentioning that Baleba committed 2.73 fouls per 90 last season and was carded seven times in limited Premier League minutes, averaging 0.48 cards per 90.

Both look great bets IF he starts, and knowing my luck Wieffer will be treated with the most magic of sponges and come back into the XI to provide us with yet more void bets...

*Section written before Gilmour's transfer to Napoli

Gilmour should start in the 'six', and the theory as to why we backed Wieffer last weekend still rings true, even with the Scotsman stepping in.

The way in which Fabian Hürzeler sets his team up means the deepest lying midfielder has a lot of work to get through - they are left very isolated. As can be seen by the average position map of the Seagulls in their opening two games, nothing changed despite the Wieffer-Gilmour switch.

Gilmour made three tackles and two fouls last time out, Wieffer made four tackles and two fouls in his debut, and I wouldn't be surprised for this to become a theme of the Brighton 'six'.

The clincher for me is that Gilmour is 2/1 to make 2+ fouls, yet Wieffer - who is a doubt to play - is priced at 4/6. They'll be playing the same role with the same responsibilities and the same isolation.

I'm also going to get greedy and back Gilmour carded at 22/5, with the 4/1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair also fine.

The referee here, Chris Cavanagh, averaged 3.7 cards per game last season, while this term he's dished 16 in three outings across the continent. Gilmour collected eight yellows last season for Brighton, with his per 90 rate at 0.34, all of which is encouraging before we get to Arsenal's opening two games.

The deepest lying opposition midfielders for both Wolves (Joao Gomes) and Aston Villa (Amadou Onana) have made three and two fouls respectively, with both being booked. We should expect Gilmour to be just as busy on Saturday.

It goes without saying that if Gilmour doesn't start and you've backed both bets with a firm that doesn't automatically void the bet if he isn't in the line up, then cash out.

Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Brentford vs Southampton

While I strongly fancy Brentford to win this game, see the latest episode of THIS WEEK's ACCA for more info, I'm going to side with a couple of fou... shot-based bets (I got you didn't I, you can now rejoice at a bet that isn't foul related).

First up, centre-back NATHAN COLLINS is priced at 8/5 to take just 1+ SHOT and I can't believe it.

Not only has this bet landed in both of Brentford's games so far, Collins firing once against Palace and twice at Anfield, but Southampton are coming off a game in which they conceded NINE shots from set-pieces against Nottingham Forest!

It's 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power) for Collins to take 2+ shots, something he managed against Liverpool and something Forest centre-back Nikola Milenkovic (3 total) did last time out against Saints, and 14/1 (Sky Bet) to score on Saturday.

KYLE WALKER-PETERS has been catching the eye for his attacking involvement, seemingly being the Saints' most dangerous outlet, picking the ball up in some very advanced positions and pulling the trigger a lot. His 10/3 price for 2+ SHOTS on Saturday looks a tad big.

KWP fired two shots in his side's opener against Newcastle, admittedly against 10 men, and he took three of his side's five shots in the defeat to Nottingham Forest last time out.

Brentford conceded 14 shots to Crystal Palace in their home opener, more than I would have expected, before being hit by 19 attempts against Liverpool. The Bees had less possession in both matches, something that will likely be the case here too.

It's a standout 10/3 with Paddy Power and Betfair, as short as 11/8 in places. It's also 12/1 for him to replicate his 3+ shot game against Forest.

Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Ipswich vs Fulham

This one screams goals. Ipswich were dealt the toughest opening two games of any team on their return to the top flight, facing Liverpool and Manchester City, meaning this will be the first match of the season that they will realistically view as winnable.

They struggled to get into their attacking groove in those two games, but should be more like the gung-ho Ipswich we saw in the Championship here against a Fulham side who are vulnerable when travelling.

Last season in the second tier, 17 of the Tractor Boys' 23 home games went OVER 2.5 GOALS, with their home games averaging a huge 4.0 goals per game. I see no reason not to back a high-scoring contest here.

Fulham's away games last term saw an average of 3.2 goals, while they conceded an average of 1.97 xGA per game, highlighting their defensive vulnerability. They started the season with a 1-0 loss at Old Trafford, but that game should have seen more goals according to the chances in the match, with United racking up 2.04 xG.

Expect Kieran McKenna's side to have right go here, and Fulham will likely oblige in an all-out-attack style game.

Score prediction: Ipswich 2-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Everton vs Bournemouth

I'll be honest, I'm not too sure which way this game is going to go. Everton have had a miserable start to the campaign, while Bournemouth have looked good in both draws so far, so I'll probably give them the edge.

The betting edge though comes in backing JAMES TARKOWSKI 1+ TOTAL SHOT, which is generously priced at 23/20 with Unibet - it's as short as 4/11 in places.

This bet has landed in both of Everton's outings so far, Tarkowski taking one shot against Brighton and three against Tottenham in a 4-0 defeat, and it landed in half of his 38 Premier League appearances last season and in 24 of 38 the season prior.

All in all, since the start of the 2022/23 season, this bet has copped in 45 of 78 outings for Tarky, a 57% strike rate that would imply odds of 8/11. Isolating just games at Goodison Park and it's 24 in 39 for a 62% strike rate (implied odds of 6/10).

He's a huge threat in the air from set-pieces, a key area for the Toffees, and given what we saw from Bournemouth against Newcastle last time out, conceding six shots from dead-ball situations including a huge chance for Dan Burn (0.22 xG), the Everton centre-back should have a few chances to get a shot off.

Tarkowski is 14/1 with Sky Bet to score anytime for those that want a bigger price, and nearly 4/1 with William Hill for 2+ shots.

Score prediction: Everton 1-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Leicester vs Aston Villa

As discussed on This Week's Acca, I think Villa are a great bet if you can get them at around 4/5. They are shortening all the time, and given Spurs went off at 4/6 at Leicester a few weeks ago, there probably is still some juice in the 8/11 generally available.

I won't be putting them up here though and am happy to swerve this game from a betting perspective.

Score prediction: Leicester 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Nottingham Forest vs Wolves

This is a tough game to call. Forest have been impressive so far, Wolves have shown flashes.

I was looking at a cards-based bet given the recent record in this match-up, which has been tasty, and there's a decent refereeing appointment, but the line is at 4.5 and it's generally odds-on, so I'll take a watching brief.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

West Ham vs Manchester City

West Ham have barely laid a glove on Manchester City in the last few seasons. They have lost by a two-goal margin in all of the last four meetings, never getting away more than six shots in any of the games.

Will the new manager and his new approach help this? I'm not too sure, but one player's new position could bring an interesting betting proposition.

TOMAS SOUCEK has been all action for Julen Lopetegui this term, but he's interestingly been playing as the right-sided eight and very high up the pitch. He seems to have a fixed role and position, unlike last season where he was all over the place.

The fact he plays on the right could mean he's called upon to help with defending Jeremy Doku, while Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva also like drifting over to the City left. That immediately has me looking at his foul prices, and at 6/4 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS he looks a bet.

Not only is the rigid position a contributing factor, but Lopetegui's combative, in-your-face approach leads to plenty of fouls. Soucek made five against Crystal Palace last time out, having to deal with the floating Eberechi Eze and Palace's left wing back, while he was also the one pressing Adam Wharton.

He could be in for a tricky game against arguably the best side in the division, and some of the best foul drawers too.

Score prediction: West Ham 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Newcastle vs Tottenham

This game could be high octane. Spurs have impressed in their two games so far, but have played teams happy to concede possession and sit in to frustrate. Newcastle won't do that, so we should see a different kind of Spurs game.

I think we could see a lot of fouls here, and so far this season BRUNO GUIMARAES has drawn a heck of a lot of fouls - just the 12 in two matches - so the even money for him to WIN 3+ FOULS makes great appeal.

The Brazilian's close control and burst of pace over a short distance, coupled with his willingness to drop on contact, has yielded great returns in this market so far, winning in both opening games, and that should continue on Sunday against a Spurs team that plays a high-press in order to win the ball back quickly.

Despite dominating possession in both games so far (70% in bot), Tottenham still committed 12 and 11 fouls, a tally that should rise against a better side.

I'm also going to play the same bet for ANTHONY GORDON, who is the second most fouled player through two games, being felled four times in each.

He is one of the league's best foul drawers, and he is arguably Newcastle's most important creator, so he should get plenty of the ball. I also think the fact Spurs' full-backs play very high and drift infield will leave a lot of space out wide for Gordon, meaning when he is running towards goal with the ball, Spurs players will likely not be fronting him up, they'll be behind him or level, increasing the chance of a foul.

I don't want to get carried away with the bets for this game, so I won't be staking any more, but I still think Spurs have a defensive issue from set-pieces. Everton had eight shots from dead-ball situations equating to 0.86 xG last weekend, while Newcastle managed six at Bournemouth. Dan Burn went close on the south coast, and is 5/4 for a shot (bet365) and is 12/1 to score anytime (General).

Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds:15/2)

Odds correct at 1700 BST (29/08/24)

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