Sporting Life
Jake Osgathorpe's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 18

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Mon December 23, 2024 · 8h ago
  • Jake's Predictions: Staked 232.25pts | Returned 260.12pts | P/L +27.87pts | ROI 12%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Boxing Day 12:30

2pts Jack Grealish 2+ total shots in Man City vs Everton at evens (bet365)

0.5pt No first goalscorer in Man City vs Everton at 18/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)

Boxing Day 15:00

2pts Over 4.5 cards in Chelsea vs Fulham at 23/20 (bet365)

1pt Matty Cash to be carded in Newcastle vs Aston Villa at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Nikola Milenkovic to score first in Forest vs Tottenham at 12/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Nikola Milenkovic to score first in Forest vs Tottenham at 33/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Murillo to score first in Forest vs Tottenham at 60/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.5pt Murillo to score anytime in Forest vs Tottenham at 18/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Boxing Day 17:30

1.5pt Amad Diallo to score or assist in Wolves vs Man Utd at 33/20 (Unibet)

Boxing Day 20:00

2.5pts Liverpool to win to nil vs Leicester at 19/20 (William Hill)

Friday 20:00

1pt William Saliba to win 1+ foul in Arsenal vs Ipswich at 15/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.5pt William Saliba to win 2+ fouls in Arsenal vs Ipswich at 12/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Depending on when you are reading this - Merry Christmas!

Well, last week went pretty well. The underdog theory stood up, and the confidence in them was rewarded. Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth all won at big prices, while the extreme confidence in Liverpool helped seal a 24/1 acca.

It all led to a weekend of over 20pts profit, to make the column's profit and loss look much rosier, and hopefully provide some cash for you to enjoy a drink or buy a couple of extra Christmas presents.

Anyway, enough trumpeting as we have a quick turnaround to the Boxing Day fixtures. With time tight, unfortunately (or fortunately for some) the length of the previews on each game will be significantly shorter over the festive period, but rest assured, the research will still be as lengthy a process. No corners cut there.

The Boxing Day slate looks interesting, and a couple of bigger prices alongside some shorter, stronger fancies make up the staking plan.

Manchester City vs Everton

Everton are involved in a football match, which should mean we see few goals. Sean Dyche relishes turning up against the big boys and stifling them, and he will fancy his chances more than he ever has at the Etihad on Boxing Day.

The Toffees head to Manchester on the back of successive goalless draws against Chelsea and Arsenal, better sides than City, meaning the 20/1 available for a repeat is worth a nibble, so we'll back NO FIRST GOALSCORER.

This bet has landed in four of Everton's last six Premier League games, with goals hard to come by for the Toffees but their backline looking solid.

Couple that with the fact City's attack looks stale, as well as their defence looking vulnerable, and 18/1 does look big.

Pep's side have failed to generate more than 1.6 xGF in seven of their last 12, scoring just 14 times in that period. Confidence is low, and this isn't the same team who won their fourth straight title last season.

Given that we know how Everton will set up, I think JACK GREALISH 2+ TOTAL SHOTS looks overpriced at evens with bet365. He may not start, but with this bookmaker we get our stakes back if he isn't in the XI.

Grealish was a bright spot of City's most recent defeat to Aston Villa, taking three shots and being fed the ball at every opportunity. He's averaged 1.89 shots per 90 this season, and should get opportunities to pull the trigger against a low block. This bet is 2/7 in places.

I won't be putting it in the staking plan but keep an eye on team news, because if Everton play in a 4-3-3 again with Iliman Ndiaye on the left-wing and he is up against Kyle Walker, then Walker's price of 9/1 to be carded looks massive. He's had a bad few weeks to say the least, and Ndiaye is a handful.

Score prediction: Manchester City 0-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)

Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace

Bournemouth were excellent at Manchester United at the weekend, securing us a winner and propelling themselves up to fifth in the table. Andoni Iraola's side are a fantastic team and boast a really solid home process, so I wouldn't put anyone off backing them here at close to evens.

I'll swerve this game from a betting standpoint though. At the time of writing, Palace's tackle lines weren't up but that's an angle I'd be looking to attack. The Eagles have averaged 21.5 tackles per game this season, so keep an eye on the prices and lines when available.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Chelsea vs Fulham

This is a derby match, and recent editions have been pretty spiky. The last six meetings have averaged 5.5 cards per game, with OVER 4.5 CARDS landing in five of those, and the odds against available for a repeat makes plenty of appeal.

That's because not only do we have a good referee appointment in Sam Barrott (5.2 cards per game) who has covered this card line in seven of 11 league outings, but we have two of the better teams in the league for collecting cards.

It is Chelsea who top that specific chart, being shown 52 cards this season at an average of 3.1 per game, while Fulham have received 42 cards (2.5 per game). Interestingly, the Blues have drawn the second most cards (52 - 3.1 per game also) adding more confidence to this bet.

It's worth noting that Fulham's six matches against the current top eight have averaged 6.2 cards per game, and all of those matches have been close, which has probably played into the cards flowing. This game should be similar, with the Cottagers capable of frustrating their hosts which could mean Mr Barrott is a busy man.

Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Newcastle are playing, so backing the opposing right-back to be carded is an immediate thought. Hopefully, Aston Villa stick with MATTY CASH for their trip north, with his price of 3/1 TO BE CARDED looking large.

Cash has been carded four times already this season, but interestingly, he's been booked in three of his last four league starts, perhaps pointing towards him being left more exposed by Unai Emery's tactical tweaks.

That was the case last weekend against Manchester City, when he was literally left one-on-one with Jack Grealish nearly the whole game, a match-up that unsurprisingly saw him pick up a yellow card.

Anthony Gordon is one of the league's chief foul drawers, winning 2.67 fouls per 90, and he should get space to operate here against Villa if their set-up last week against City is anything to go by.

Score prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham

Tottenham continue to be one of my favourite teams. Not because I support them, or root against them, but because of the stubborn nature of Ange Postecoglou, meaning we know exactly what we are going to get every single week, no matter the injuries or suspensions.

I was looking to back Forest here, but the price on a home win does look to be too short to me, even if I do think they will win. Instead, we'll go back to the centre-back goalscorer and back the Forest pair of NIKOLA MILENKOVIC and MURILLO TO SCORE FIRST and to SCORE ANYTIME. Backing the pair each way is fine, but we are getting more value by splitting stakes in this manner, as well as a greater potential upside should either open the scoring.

Tottenham's set-piece issues remain, and while Liverpool didn't threaten much last weekend, the Reds do not create anywhere near as many opportunities as Forest from dead-ball situations. In fact, only Arsenal have scored more goals from such scenarios and only the Gunners and Aston Villa have generated more xG.

The clincher for me is the reliance Forest place on set-pieces for chance creation with a league-leading 36% of their xG total this season from set-pieces.

So, a good set-piece team vs a bad one has me happy to chance the bigger prices. Milenkovic is the biggest fancy, as he looks like a monster in the box.

His xG per 90 of 0.16 is the best in the league among centre-backs, marginally better than Gabriel's (0.15), the man who is arguably the most dangerous set-piece threat in the Premier League. With two goals to his name, he looks a real runner, and at 33/1 to score first and 12/1 to score anytime, huge value.

Murillo isn't as much of a threat, his xG per 90 down at 0.06, but he has scored already this season and averages nearly a shot per 90. He's 60/1 to score first and 18/1 anytime, and I have to back him too. Imagine the sickener if a goalscoring Murillo went unbacked and Milenkovic didn't score - it's worth the small stakes.

Should either man score during the match (not first), we'll scoop a minimum of +7pts, with the best case being Murillo opening the scoring, which would land us +37.5pts profit. I mean, that is unless both score.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Southampton vs West Ham

A new manager brings uncertainty, a word I'd use to describe West Ham this season.

Southampton's players have a new voice in their ear and new ideas that could help spring a few immediate surprises, while the Hammers continue to just be, meh.

If this were a Russell Martin-led side, I would be tempted by the away win, but as it is, it's a no bet from me.

Score prediction: Southampton 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Wolves vs Manchester United

Manchester United at odds-on? No thanks. For all they were probably unfortunate to lose, and lose by such a wide margin against Bournemouth, their price at Molineux is simply too short. Especially with Wolves under new management and fresh off of a morale-boosting win.

Having said that, a certain United player looks overpriced in the TO SCORE OR ASSIST market, and it just so happens to be the Red Devils' standout performer of late - AMAD DIALLO.

We can back him at above 6/4 to have a goal involvement, and that appeals greatly. This is a bet that would have won in four of his six league starts since Ruben Amorim was appointed, and his expected goal involvement (xGI) per 90 in that time is a whopping 0.64, suggesting his price should be odds-on.

  • Expected goal involvement = expected goals + expected assists

It didn't land last time out against Bournemouth, but that wasn't for lack of trying. He had three shots equating to 0.26 xG and set up four chances totalling 0.66 xA. A similar performance here against a still-suspect Wolves defence would likely see him register a goal or an assist.

Score prediction: Wolves 2-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Liverpool vs Leicester

This might be the bet of the day. We can back league leaders LIVERPOOL TO WIN TO NIL at 19/20 money. It looks a huge price.

The Reds have won and kept a clean sheet in seven of their 12 home games this season, and it's fair to say that every visitor to Anfield has been of a better standard than Leicester.

In fact, Arne Slot's men have so far only welcomed sides currently in the top 12 of the Premier League, so this will be their first genuine home game against a rubbish team. At home, the Reds have allowed just 0.90 xGA per game, remarkably impressive given their schedule.

Leicester meanwhile are poor and toothless travellers, despite what their goal tally might say. Excluding away games against fellow promoted sides, the Foxes have taken an average of 6.8 shots per game and generated 0.67 xGF per game.

It could be an easy evening for the rampant Reds.

Score prediction: Liverpool 4-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Brighton vs Brentford

Brentford have really struggled away from home for quite some time now. In fact, this calendar year the Bees have played 19 away games in the Premier League and have lost 14 of them.

That stat alone will make Brighton's price to win appeal to many. It's five without a win for Fabian Hurzeler's side, and two wins in nine, so even with Brentford's road issues, can we trust Brighton?

I don't know, and with the depth to his squad, I'm unsure what XI we will see from the hosts, making player prop bets awkward. Yankuba Minteh was a player I was looking to possibly get onside, and at 7/5 to score or assist I was close to pulling the trigger given his data in limited game time, but we just don't know if he'll start. No bet.

Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Arsenal vs Ipswich

Liam Delap is back from suspension for Ipswich, which means the Tractor Boys will be spearheaded by their physical forward at the Emirates. He's committed an average of 2.70 fouls per 90, a figure that leads the entire Premier League (of players to have played more than 700 minutes) so the question becomes, who will he foul on Friday?

Arsenal's two centre-backs are the obvious candidates. Gabriel has been fouled 0.64 times per 90 and WILLIAM SALIBA 0.52, yet the former is priced at 8/13 TO WIN 1+ FOUL and the latter is a whopping 15/8, which looks well worth chancing. The same bet is 2/5 elsewhere.

Across his last eight starts, at least one opposing centre-back has been fouled at least once on six occasions, with both centre-backs fouled on three occasions. Interestingly, when Ipswich played at Tottenham, both Spurs centre-backs were fouled twice as Delap racked up five fouls in the game.

Perhaps I'm reaching here but whenever Saliba has played against a physical striker he has been fouled this season. Ollie Watkins (fouled once), Dominic Solanke (twice), Erling Haaland (once), Alexander Isak (twice), Chris Wood (once) and Rasmus Hojlund (once) - all players I would put in a similar mould to Delap, perhaps barring the more slight Isak.

The only other striker he's faced that I would put in the same bracket in a game Saliba wasn't fouled would be Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who coincidentally fouled Gabriel twice.

I do feel as though Delap may fancy his chances more in a physical battle against Saliba as opposed to Gabriel, which could lead to it being the Frenchman this time on the end of some fouls.

For that reason it looks worthwhile chancing SALIBA TO WIN 2+ FOULS at a huge 12/1, with this selection 15/8 in places.

Five of the last 14 centre-backs Liam Delap has faced have been fouled twice or more, while Saliba has already been fouled multiple times twice this season. In a game Ipswich will want to make as scrappy as possible, let's hope Delap chooses to try and pick on Saliba. If he does, both bets should give us a real run for our money.

Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Super 6 predictions for round 26

  • Newcastle vs Aston Villa
  • Chelsea 2-1 Fulham
  • Nottingham Forest 2-1 Tottenham
  • Southampton vs West Ham
  • Wolves 2-2 Manchester United
  • Liverpool 4-0 Leicester

Boxing Day matches - Odds correct at 1505 (23/12/24)

Friday's matches - Odds correct at 1630 (23/12/24)

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