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Jake Osgathorpe's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 13

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Thu November 28, 2024 · 4h ago
  • Jake's Predictions: Staked 161.75pts | Returned 167.37pts | P/L +5.62pts | ROI 3.5%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Friday

1pt Brighton to win and BTTS vs Southampton at 13/8 (General)

Saturday 15:00

1.5pts Ethan Pinnock 1+ total shot in Brentford vs Leicester at 21/20 (Unibet)

1.5pts Nathan Collins 1+ total shot in Brentford vs Leicester at 23/20 (Unibet)

0.5pts Ethan Pinnock to score anytime in Brentford vs Leicester at 12/1 (bet365)

0.5pts Nathan Collins to score anytime in Brentford vs Leicester at 10/1 (bet365)

1pt Will Hughes to be carded in C Palace vs Newcastle at 3/1 (bet365, Unibet)

2pts Wolves to commit 12+ fouls vs Bournemouth at 4/5 (Sky Bet)

Saturday 17:30

2pts Bukayo Saka to score or assist in West Ham vs Arsenal at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1.5pts Arsenal -1 handicap at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

***Sunday's tips to be added on Friday

A poor weekend all around. Only a couple of winners among a raft of losers so apologies. We'll be going back to the drawing board this weekend looking to bounce back.

This weekend's Premier League action kicks off on Friday, and finishes with a huge clash at Anfield between league leaders Liverpool and stuttering champions Manchester City.

We've plenty of bets in the staking plan, and a mix of prices and bet types to get into and cheer on.

NOV 30 ACCA - UnTENable Slate | Football betting preview with free tips & predictions

Brighton vs Southampton

How much longer will Southampton stick with Russell Martin? We've just seen Leicester - four places and six points better off than the Saints - sack Steve Cooper, and the Saints issues show no sign of getting resolved.

They still can't defend (20th on xGA) and offer little threat in attack for all their possession, ranking fifth for average possession (55.3%) yet 17th for xGF (13.4 - 1.12 per game). Something has to change.

Next up, it's a Brighton side who have beaten Tottenham and Manchester City in two of their last three home games, and I strongly fancy the hosts here.

That wouldn't be a sentiment I would have uttered were the Seagulls playing a side flexible in approach, one happy to sit in, cede possession and counter attack given it appears Brighton still struggle with such opponents.

Two of their three draws at the Amex have come when they have seen 70%+ possession (N Forest, Ipswich). The other draw should have been a win, with the Seagulls showing some naivety when overcommitting with a four on one against Wolves, only to waste the chance and concede after being out-numbered the other way.

The Seagulls should be four wins from four when they have seen much less of the ball, as they should here.

I'll have a small bet on BRIGHTON WIN AND BTTS at 7/4.

The hosts are creating plenty, but do give up chances, shown by their xG averages (1.67 xGF and 1.34 xGA per home game) so Southampton should get a couple of good opportunities here to once again get on the scoresheet.

Martin's side have scored in seven of their last 10 league games, while Brighton have conceded in eight of their last 10. At home, the Seagulls have seen both teams score in five of six league games, with their three home wins all seeing both teams score.

Score prediction: Brighton 3-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Brentford vs Leicester

Leicester are a bit of a mess at the moment. They waited until after the international break, after a defeat against top four chasing Chelsea, to sack Steve Cooper. It looks as though they are set to replace him with Ruud van Nistelrooy.

Either way, whoever is managing the Foxes I'll be backing opposition centre-backs to have attacking success.

ETHAN PINNOCK and NATHAN COLLINS are both generously priced for 1+ TOTAL SHOT here, and I'll be backing both of them.

Leicester continue to concede plenty of shots from set-pieces. In fact, they have faced the most attempts from dead ball situations in the league this term (66), averaging 5.5 per game.

Across their last seven league matches the Foxes have faced 16 shots from opposing centre-backs alone from set-pieces, so with Pinnock and Collins both huge threats from such scenarios, it makes sense to back both to register a shot.

Pinnock has had nine shots in 12 games this season, with his centre-back partner Collins having 10 shots in his 12 outings.

I am even more confident about these plays given how poorly Leicester have fared against good set-piece teams this season. They have faced three of the current top five in terms of xGF from set-pieces and have; conceded from a corner against Aston Villa (1st), conceded three shots to centre-backs against Nottingham Forest (3rd) and 13 set-piece shots against Arsenal (4th) with six coming from defenders.

Brentford, fifth on that list, could have similar levels of success. In fact, I'll also have a couple of smaller bets on PINNOCK and COLLINS TO SCORE ANYTIME at 12/1 and 10/1 respectively.

I wouldn't usually go this heavy, but I love the mis-match here, and the two centre-backs proposed have both already scored this season (Pinnock twice) - and they have both scored in the same game, a home match against a Wolves side who struggle as badly from set-pieces as Leicester do.

Lightening couldn't strike twice, could it?

Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Somehow, WILL HUGHES wasn't carded last weekend. He committed three fouls, one which was a scrape down the Achilles of an opponent that resulted in a penalty.

How's your luck eh. Anyway, I haven't learned my lesson, as we are going back in at 3/1 this weekend for him TO BE CARDED.

Hughes has been carded five times already this season and committed 2.80 fouls per 90, and this weekend comes up against a Newcastle midfield who have been excellent at drawing cards.

At least one opposition midfielder has been booked in 10 of Newcastle's 12 Premier League games, with 13 of 23 opposing midfielders picking up yellows.

We've a good referee appointment here in Darren England, who has averaged 5.0 cards per game this season, so hopefully Hughes can deliver for us this weekend.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich

Ipswich look to have found something of late, unbeaten in three and slowly finding their feet in the Premier League.

I wouldn't put anyone off a pro Ipswich bet as I do fancy them to get at least a point.

We were let down by backing Forest's centre-backs to be fouled last weekend, and I'm not going to put the same bets in the staking plan, but I do think they are worthwhile revisiting this weekend.

That's because of Liam Delap, who is all action. He commits a lot of fouls, with 22 opposing centre backs being fouled when he has started this term.

In total a centre-back has been fouled in eight of his 11 starts. Murillo is 9/4 with Sky Bet to be fouled and Nikola Milenkovic is 11/8 for those interested.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Wolves vs Bournemouth

This game has fouls written all over it. We have the league leaders in the foul department, Bournemouth, travelling to the side second in those standings, Wolves.

The pair are both averaging over 13 fouls per game, with both playing in a very front-foot, transitional and aggressive manner.

Sky Bet have priced WOLVES TO COMMIT 12+ FOULS at a very generous 4/5, with the same bet around the 2/5 mark elsewhere.

The Old Gold have hit 12+ in eight of their 12 matches so far this season, and in four of six at home, averaging 12.5 per game in front of their own fans.

In a game that will be open and end-to-end, with plenty of space for both sides to exploit, I wouldn't be surprised to see plenty of fouls.

Last season the two meetings delivered a 12-12 and a 10-17 in the foul count, and I suspect we see similar figures here. For those wanting to climb the Wolves ladder, Sky Bet are offering 5/4 for 13+ fouls, 9/2 for 16+ and 11/1 for 18+.

Wolves have covered 13+ in eight of 12, 16+ in four of 12 and 18+ once already this term.

Score prediction: Wolves 2-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

West Ham vs Arsenal

Arsenal are back. All it took was for Martin Odegaard to return, and the Gunners have taken off in attack. Defensively they remain solid, meaning West Ham should be very afraid this weekend.

Despite winning on Monday, the Hammers flattered to deceive, losing the xG battle once again, as their backline remains vulnerable.

Julen Lopetegui's side have conceded the sixth most xGA in the league this season, allowing 1.70 per game, so a full-tilt Arsenal side should be able to have their way on Saturday.

ARSENAL -1 HANDICAP looks a cracking way in at 13/10, with this bet requiring the Gunners to win by two clear goals.

Fresh from 3-0 and 5-1 wins, Arsenal are cooking. Combine that with the fact that West Ham are a below average side who get blown out by good teams (3-1 vs City, 3-0 vs Chelsea, 4-1 vs Spurs) and this bet looks even more appetising.

I also can't resist the 5/6 being dangled for BUKAYO SAKA TO SCORE OR ASSIST.

The Englishman has been in scintillating form this season, averaging 0.63 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 90.

He's scored four and assisted eight goals in his 11 league outings, registering a goal involvement in eight of those 11.

Since the start of last season, he's scored or assisted in 31 of 46 league starts, with this bet landing 67% of the time, a percentage that would give us implied odds of 1/2.

Score prediction: West Ham 0-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Super 6 predictions for round 20

  • Crystal Palace 1-2 Newcastle
  • Brentford 2-1 Leicester
  • Nottingham Forest 1-1 Ipswich
  • West Ham 0-3 Arsenal
  • Chelsea v Aston Villa*
  • Liverpool v Manchester City*

*To be added Friday

Odds correct at 1530 (28/11/24)

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