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Jake Osgathorpe's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 11

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sun November 10, 2024 · 1M ago
  • Jake's Predictions: Staked 130pts | Returned 139.67pts | P/L +9.67pts | ROI 7.4%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Sunday 14:00

2.5pts Matthijs de Ligt 1+ total shot in Man Utd vs Leicester at 7/10 (Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet)

1.5pts Casemiro 1+ shot on target in Man Utd vs Leicester at 29/20 (Unibet)

1pt Sean Longstaff to be carded in N Forest vs Newcastle at 5/1 (Sky Bet)

0.25pt Dominguez, Gibbs-White, Yates, Longstaff, Guimaraes all to be carded in N Forest vs Newcastle at 237/1 (Betfair)

2pts Dara O'Shea 1+ total shot in Tottenham vs Ipswich at 23/20 (BetVictor)

1pt Cameron Burgess 1+ total shot in Tottenham vs Ipswich at 5/2 (Unibet)

Sunday 16:30

1.5pts Cole Palmer to win 3+ fouls in Chelsea vs Arsenal at 15/8 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

After such a profitable week nine, week 10 wasn't so good.

We finished just shy of 5pts down, giving away half the winnings from the previous week. Most of that was again thanks to Tottenham, who got to six corners and took their foot off the gas when we needed a seventh. Cheers lads.

Even more annoyingly, two of the three centre-back goalscorers selected had attempts on goal without scoring. Anyhow, onto this weekend.

Manchester United vs Leicester

Manchester United can't wait for the international break, where they will welcome their newest manager Ruben Amorim. The current Sporting Lisbon boss dismantled Manchester City in midweek, highlighting his capabilities, though this current crop of United players aren't well suited to his style yet.

Anyway, this weekend Ruud van Nistelrooy takes charge of (potentially) his final game as head coach, and the Red Devils host the side they pumped 5-2 in the Carabao Cup the day after Erik ten Hag was sacked.

The Foxes have a number of weaknesses, most notably from set-pieces, where they have been incredibly fortunate to have conceded only once from 60 shots equating to 6.31 xG.

That immediately has me wanting to back MATTHIJS DE LIGT 1+ TOTAL SHOT which is available at 7/10, and even at that shortish price looks like huge value. It's 1/3 in places.

The Dutchman fired at least a shot in three straight games against sides who struggle defending set-pieces. Southampton, Crystal Palace and Tottenham all sit in the top six in the Premier League for xG allowed from free-kicks and corners.

Leicester sit second, so we should expect him to get at least one chance here. It's also noting that the Foxes have allowed at least one centre-back shot in all of their last five outings, with four of those CBs firing 2+ shots, so I wouldn't put anyone off backing De Ligt 2+ shots at 16/5 with Coral and Ladbrokes.

But I want to split stakes with CASEMIRO, who appears United's second biggest set-piece threat and a trigger-happy shooter at the moment. We'll back him to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at 29/20.

The Brazilian, when starting, is averaging 2.89 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and 0.89 shots on target per 90, highlighting just how many efforts on goal he's having.

He's landed 1+ shot on target in six of nine starts, hitting the target from range but also from corners and set-pieces, including against Leicester in the Carabao Cup.

Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle

The Newcastle theory stood up once again last weekend, as an opposing midfielder - this time Mikel Merino - was booked for the ninth straight league game, with 12 of 19 having their name taken in total.

Unfortunately for the column this weekend, the prices are simply not appetising enough, with Nottingham Forest's midfield double-pivot of Nicolas Dominguez and Ryan Yates 11/5 and 5/2 respectively. Even Morgan Gibbs-White is a 5/2 shot as well.

However, flipping the theory could work as there appears to be some value in backing SEAN LONGSTAFF TO BE CARDED at 5/1 - only four other outfielders are priced bigger.

Since Joe Willock's return from injury, the Magpies have been almost playing at 4-2-4 formation, with Joelinton and Willock making up the frontline along with Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon, leaving Longstaff and Bruno Guimaraes in a double-pivot, and it was especially obvious last weekend against Arsenal.

If this persists, which I think seems highly likely following wins to nil over Chelsea and Arsenal, then Longstaff could be tasked with keeping Gibbs-White quiet.

Forest's number 10 has drawn 1.57 fouls per 90 this season, but interestingly, an opposing midfielder has been booked in every Forest league game he has started.

Lewis Cook, Flynn Downes, both Wolves CMs, Ryan Gravenberch, Carlos Baleba, Moises Caicedo and both West Ham CMs have fallen victim, with Gibbs-White no doubt a significant contributing factor.

Morgan Gibbs-White has drawn plenty of cards from opponents this season

So, given the shift in tactics from Newcastle, playing a double-pivot rather than a midfield three, Longstaff's price looks huge. He's already been booked twice this season in just 420 minutes of action.

For context, his likely midfield partner Bruno Guimaraes also has two cards to his name and only a slightly higher fouls per 90 average than Longstaff yet is priced at 2/1 for a card.

Longstaff looks value, though for those wanting to cover all bases, back Guimaraes as well.

The referee for this game is Anthony Taylor who has averaged 4.67 cards per game and has already had a couple of remarkable games, flashing 14 yellows in Bournemouth v Chelsea and nine in Southampton v Leicester. This could go the same way, so let's have a fun longshot.

Let's back all of NICOLAS DOMINGUEZ, MORGAN GIBBS-WHITE, RYAN YATES, SEAN LONGSTAFF and BRUNO GUIMARAES TO BE CARDED to very, very small stakes.

Believe it or not this type of bet has landed in one of Newcastle's games this season (vs Tottenham) where all starting midfielders were booked, and it missed by just one card another time.

Everyone on the list has collected at least two cards this season and given the records of both sides drawing cards from opposing midfielders, it's worth a bit of shrapnel at a massive price.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Tottenham vs Ipswich

No faffing here. Tottenham still can't defend set-pieces. It's an issue that has plagued them ever since Ange Postecoglou took charge.

That immediately piques the interest in centre-back shots and goals.

In matches across the Premier League, FA Cup and Europa League this calendar year, Spurs have conceded 35 shots from centre-backs in 35 games.

A centre-back has had at least one shot in 21 of those 35 matches - a healthy 60% strike rate - so taking an odds-against price about Ipswich's biggest set-piece threat just to register a shot makes plenty of appeal.

I put DARA O'SHEA up to score last weekend against Leicester and he came very close, taking two shots equating to 0.2 xG, but this week I'm happy to take the 23/20 for just 1+ TOTAL SHOT.

The Irishman has had a shot in all but one of his Premier League matches for Ipswich this season, failing only against Brentford, and managed two shots and a goal in his two starts for Burnley in the Championship prior to his transfer.

He also managed a shot the last time he played at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with Burnley, so he's been there and done it. Same again this weekend please Dara.

I also can't turn down a splitting of stakes given the 5/2 carrot that's been dangled for O'Shea's centre-back partner CAMERON BURGESS 1+ TOTAL SHOT.

He's 19/20 in places so the price available with Unibet looks huge, but I'd also take the 15/8 on offer with most major bookies.

The Australian has played only three league games for the Tractor Boys this season but has fired at least one shot in two of the three, and last season had a shot in 16 of his 38 starts.

You watch, after weeks of playing high Spurs corner lines only for them to fall agonisingly short, this will be the week they rack up 13 or so... but the value is with Ipswich defenders.

Score prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Chelsea vs Arsenal

This feels like a big game. A Chelsea win would mean the Blues are serious contenders while the Gunners are all but out of the title race. An Arsenal win restarts the Gunners' challenge and shows the Blues still have a way to go.

Expect this to be a high-intensity match as a result, with plenty of fouls and likely a load of cards.

The bet that has caught the eye though is the 15/8 about Chelsea's star player COLE PALMER TO WIN 3+ FOULS.

It has perhaps gone under the radar thanks to his immense goal and assist output that since moving to the number 10 position - gameweek 4 - Palmer's fouls won numbers have spiked.

Cole Palmer being fouled by Manuel Ugarte

In the first three games of the season as Enzo Maresca was figuring out his best team, Palmer wasn't playing solidly in the 10 and was fouled just twice in that trio of games.

Since then he's been fouled 23 times in seven outings at an average of 3.43 per 90. He's so elusive and has been getting the ball in extremely dangerous positions which has forced opponents to scythe him down.

He's been fouled three or more times in six of those seven matches, and given how combative Arsenal can be, especially in a big game, expect to see Palmer felled plenty on Sunday.

Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Already advised

2pts Bournemouth most corners vs Brentford at 23/20 (Ladbrokes, Coral) - LOST

1.5pts Eddie Nketiah to win 2+ fouls in C Palace vs Fulham at 5/4 (Sky Bet) - VOID, STAKES RETURNED

1.5pts Dwight McNeil 1+ shot on target in West Ham vs Everton at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power) - VOID, STAKES RETURNED

1.5pts Flynn Downes to win 2+ fouls in Wolves vs Southampton at 17/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power) - VOID, STAKES RETURNED

2pts Erling Haaland to score anytime in Brighton vs Man City at evens (Unibet) - WON

1pt Ryan Gravenberch to be carded in Liverpool vs Aston Villa at 5/1 (Sky Bet)

Brentford vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth have had a pretty good couple of weeks, haven't they? Wins over Arsenal and Manchester City either side of a draw at Villa Park mean it could hardly have gone better.

They are up to 10th and will be fancying their chances of getting another win this weekend against a Brentford team who capitulated at Fulham on Monday.

The bet for me though comes in the corners market, where the bookies have it nearly a pick'em between the side as to who will win the MOST CORNERS, whereas I'd have BOURNEMOUTH odds-on.

Andoni Iraola's side have won the third most corners in the league this season, behind only Manchester City and Tottenham, while the Bees have conceded the second most corners.

The Cherries have won 7.0 corners per away game through five matches, while Thomas Frank's side have lost the corner battle in three of five home games including against lowly Southampton and Ipswich.

Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Crystal Palace vs Fulham

Crystal Palace have also had a good couple of weeks, beating Tottenham at Selhurst Park, winning in the Carabao Cup at Aston Villa and drawing their last away league game against Wolves.

The injuries and suspensions are piling up for Oliver Glasner's side though, with Adam Wharton, Eberechi Eze, Jefferson Lerma and Will Hughes all out for this game. That means Daichi Kamada should again be deployed in a deeper role, likely alongside Cheick Doucoure who may have been rushed back to full fitness as a result of the midfield crisis.

Subsequently we should again see EDDIE NKETIAH deployed in one of the two number 10 positions in this Palace system, meaning his price TO WIN 2+ FOULS stands out greatly at 5/4.

Since transferring from Arsenal, Nketiah has seen his fouls won numbers spike due to playing in a slightly deeper role, winning 14 in just 489 minutes - a per 90 average of 2.59.

He has been fouled two or more times in five of six starts, so it is somewhat surprising to see odds-against available for a repeat here.

For context, his fellow number 10, Ismaila Sarr, is priced at 8/13 to win 2+ fouls despite averaging a lower fouls per 90 (1.85) and having only once been fouled twice or more in a game.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

West Ham vs Everton

I still have no idea what West Ham are this season. Beating Manchester United and following it up with a 3-0 reverse at Nottingham Forest sums up the confusion.

I do know all about DWIGHT MCNEIL though, as he has treated us very well so far, and I'm more than happy to wade back in on the Englishman to register 1+ SHOT ON TARGET on Saturday.

The 13/10 price on offer looks huge for a bet that has won in six of his last eight league starts, with McNeil making the most of playing in the number 10 position for the Toffees.

West Ham have conceded the fourth most shots in the league this season (161), so McNeil will get plenty of opportunities to get a shot away and test the goalkeeper on Saturday.

Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Wolves vs Southampton

We are very close to must-win territory for Wolves, who sit bottom of the table and remain one of only two winless sides this season. They take on Southampton this weekend, who got off the mark against Everton last weekend.

It's fair to say this is, on paper, the easiest game of the season so far for Gary O'Neil's side, who have faced an extremely tough schedule up to this point, and we know just how they will approach this game - on the front foot, pressing aggressively and looking to outscore their opponents.

That should lead to plenty of fouls as Southampton will likely dominate possession and Wolves will be nipping at their heels looking for high turnovers.

Looking at the prices, the 17/10 about Saints midfielder FLYNN DOWNES to WIN 2+ FOULS looks massive.

Renowned for making fouls and collecting cards, it's perhaps gone under the radar just how many times Downes has been fouled this season, with him drawing only one fewer (17) than he has made (18).

Flynn Downes being fouled by Declan Rice

He's the joint-14th most fouled player in the league, winning 1.71 per 90, so such a big price about 2+ fouls won appears like huge value.

It's a bet that has landed in six of his 10 games and up against this swarming Wolves forward and midfield line, it wouldn't be a surprise were he to draw a couple more here. I wouldn't put anyone off backing 3+ fouls won as well, available at 11/2, which has won in four of 10 outings.

Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Brighton vs Manchester City

Sorry to be Mr. Obvious but I can't turn down ERLING HAALAND's price TO SCORE ANYTIME here.

We are getting a standout even money with Unibet and 10/11 with bet365 (which is also fine), with some bookies as short as 8/15.

Haaland has 11 goals in the Premier League and is averaging 0.97 xG per 90.

Manchester City may be struggling, losing three games in a week, but they will get chances against Brighton.

The Seagulls play a wide-open style of football that leaves them especially vulnerable to fast breaks with a vast amount of space to be exploited.

Which player in the league is better at doing so than Haaland?

Score prediction: Brighton 2-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Liverpool vs Aston Villa

This could be a feisty game. I expect Liverpool to get the job done, but it won't be easy, that's for sure.

Villa and Unai Emery are having a bit of wobble at the moment, but you know they will set up to frustrate and counter here - something Nottingham Forest have already done successfully at Anfield this term.

The visitors do look a tad overpriced, but I've been drawn to the huge price of 5/1 about RYAN GRAVENBERCH TO BE CARDED.

The Dutchman already has two cards to his name this season and his foul output has increased recently after a lull. He made just four fouls in five games prior to the last international break, but since returning he's made six in three - all against good sides (Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton).

In this game he will be directly up against the direct dribbling, pacy Morgan Rogers who will fully test him given the fact the Villa man will have space to operate on the break. So far this season Villa have seen 11 opposing midfielders booked, with a large part of that down to Rogers.

The referee for this game is David Coote, who so far this season has averaged 5.6 cards per game in the Premier League, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a flurry of yellows. Let's just hope Gravenberch is among those to have his name taken.

Score prediction: Liverpool 1-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Super 6 predictions for round 17

  • West Ham 2-1 Everton
  • C Palace 1-1 Fulham
  • Brighton 2-2 Man City
  • Liverpool 1-0 Aston Villa
  • N Forest 2-1 Newcastle
  • Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal

Odds correct at 1515 (08/11/24)

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