Football betting tips: Champions League, Europa League
Champions League
2pts e.w. Barcelona to win the League Stage at 12/1 (William Hill 1/4, 1,2,3)
Europa League
2pts e.w. Athletic Bilbao to win the Europa League at 14/1 (BetVictor 1/2, 1,2)
1pt e.w. Fenerbahce to win the Europa League at 22/1 (General 1/2, 1,2)
New Champions League format: What has changed?
It's all change in every European club competition this season, not just the Champions League.
Gone are the four-team group stages, with the new revamped 'One League' system coming in, which sees every team play eight times in the Champions League and Europa League.
To add to the confusion, the Conference League remains a six-match opening stage, but as that competition starts a fortnight after the others, we can ignore it for now, thankfully.
Another huge change, is no sides will drop from Champions League to Europa League, or Europa League to Conference League during the season, which certainly makes life easier from a betting perspective.
But being totally honest, working out what is actually going on makes working out what to bet on bloody hard work.
Hopefully this column does some of the heavy lifting for you.
How does the opening stage work?
The new format in the UCL and UEL means teams won't play the same three opponents twice, instead playing eight different opponents once.
In both competitions there are 36 teams taking part, with the top eight progressing directly to the round of 16.
Teams finishing ninth to 24th compete in a two-legged knockout tie to complete the knockout-stage line-up.
If you have any other questions or if (very possibly) I have got this totally wrong, drop me a DM on X @JAKEOZZ and I'll do my best to answer, or dig my heels in to justify my error.
When does each competition start?
The Champions League starts on Tuesday 17th September, with six games. There are six further games on the Wednesday and another six on the Thursday.
Yes, Champions League on a Thursday... bizarre. Unfortunately for Arsenal, they play they're opening game that day.
After the first round of fixtures, there is a return to normality for gameweeks two through seven - with Tuesday and Wednesday fixtures - but gameweek eight sees all 18 matches kick off at the same time on Wednesday 29th January.
The Europa League is a little more straightforward to explain.
It starts a week after the Champions League, with half the games on the Wednesday and half on the Thursday. Again, the rest of the matches are then played on Thursdays barring the odd fixture, with the final matches on Thursday 30th January.
Finally, on to the betting.
Barca the bet in the Champions League
It's a lot tougher to be confident about a team in the Champions League this season due to the fact every side will definitely play two 'elite' teams as well as two other strong teams in the league phase, compared to the previous format where some sides wouldn't face anyone good in the group stage.
Finishing in the top eight and thus qualifying straight to the round of 16 is important to avoid the play-off and two further games in an already stacked schedule.
After assessing the schedules, I think BARCELONA will finish in the top eight, and are the team to get onside.
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City are the short favourites at 3/1 to win the whole tournament, and 10/3 to win the league phase, with reigning champions Real Madrid a close second at 7/2 and 4/1 respectively.
Both look a tad too short to me, and it's the Catalans that appeal. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them win all eight of their league games, so backing them TO WIN THE LEAGUE PHASE at 12/1 looks the smart way in.
We know their schedule, and so we know they don't face any of the four favourites to lift the trophy (City, Real, Arsenal and Liverpool), and we don't need to concern ourselves with the knockout draw potentially going against us.
The only slight concern is that they aren't playing their home games at the Nou Camp as it's under development, instead playing at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. They played there last season and won 15 of 19 home league games and four of five Champions League home games, so I don't think it's that much of an issue - their underlying data was excellent too.
Barca have been really impressive so far under Hansi Flick. Granted, they haven't really been tested, with the toughest opponent faced being Athletic Bilbao, but the signs are good. They are creating plenty (3.09 xGF per game) and conceding little (0.87 xGA per game), and most importantly, Flick has got Robert Lewandowski firing again.
The Pole had a down year by his standards in 23/24, scoring 19 league goals and three in the UCL, but he's already notched four this term, thriving off the deliveries of Euro 2024 star Lamine Yamal (four assists already) and Raphinha (two assists).
They look a real danger to Real Madrid in La Liga, more than their pre-season price suggested, and I think they should be closer to 7/1 to top this league phase.
Their fixtures against teams from pots one and two see them host Bayern Munich, who have so far not convinced under Vincent Kompany, travel to an average Dortmund, welcome a wide-open Atalanta and travel to a Benfica team that has again been gutted this off-season.
I see no reason why they can't win all of those contests, and the draw against pots three and four looks favourable (at home to Young Boys and Brest, and away to Red Star and Monaco).
They have squad depth in abundance, a nice blend of youth and experience, and a coach who has a track record of winning.
City are an obvious danger but face trips to PSG and Juventus which could see them drop points, while Real Madrid must go to Anfield. PSG themselves face City, Bayern, Arsenal and Atletico.
Arsenal nearly made it in given their schedule, but at 7/1 are much shorter than Barcelona.
Back Bilbao in the Europa League
An English side again leads the betting in the Europa League, with Tottenham - trophy-less for years - generally priced as the 9/2 favourites, closely followed by basket-case club Manchester United at 11/2.
I think you'll agree with me that both are to be avoided at those kind of prices, even if they are, on their day, the best two sides in the competition.
Third favourites Roma (9/1) make very little appeal too, and neither do fourth favs Real Soceidad (12/1).
Daniele De Rossi hasn't improved Roma since taking over from Jose Mourinho, I Giallorossi ranking as only the 10th best team in Serie A since his appointment, while Sociedad have been on a steady decline since they qualified for the Champions League in 22/23.
At the prices it's ATHLETIC BILBAO who look the best bet of the sides near the top of the market TO WIN THE EUROPA LEAGUE, available at 14/1.
I was pretty hot on the Basque side at the start of this season, and their early performances haven't concerned me. They have lost two league games out of four, but those came to Barcelona and Atletico Madrid.
They've kept their key players, which is hugely important given the 'Basque-only' player policy they employ, meaning they should again put up a decent underlying process; they ranked fourth in La Liga last season.
Bilbao won the Copa Del Rey last term too, highlighting their ability in a knockout contest, and, get ready for the clincher, the final of the Europa League is being played at Estadio de San Mamés - Bilbao's home ground.
It feels incredibly likely that should they reach the latter rounds, this competition will become a priority.
The reason we are taking them to win the competition as opposed to the league phase is because they have been handed a couple of awkward ties in their schedule. Roma, Fenerbahce and Besiktas represent tough tests, especially with two visits to Turkey, while Slavia Prague will be no slouches.
Get to the knockouts, and they will be a formidable opponent.
Still the Special One
While it is early days, the signs are that FENERBAHCE will prove to be the best Turkish team this season - whether that leads to a Super Lig title or not remains to be seen - and given they have the maestro, Mr. Football Heritage himself, Jose Mourinho, in charge, they could make a deep run in this competition.
I put his Roma side up to win the Europa League last season, because he was in charge, and because he had just guided them to a Conference League success, and I still think his style of play suits knockout football.
They have, as you would expect for the Turkish Super Lig, some former Premier League players impressing. Edin Dzeko is still scoring goals, Allan Saint-Maximin continues to be a creative threat, as does Dusan Tadic, while Mourinho is reunited with midfielder Fred who has started the season well.
Caglar Söyüncü starts in defence and Croatia no.1 Dominik Livakovic is between the sticks. They have depth too, with Sofyan Amrabat, Cenk Tosun and Youssef En-Nesyri to call upon.
They could be dangerous if they get to the latter rounds, and again, due to a potentially tricky schedule, backing them to WIN THE EUROPA LEAGUE as opposed to topping the league phase makes sense.
Mourinho's men take on his former side Manchester United, Slavia Prague, Lyon and Athletic Bilbao. They are preferred over Galatasaray and Besiktas as so far this season against average Turkish sides, their defensive process has been streets ahead of those rivals.
Above those sides in the betting, there is very little appeal. Braga (40/1) could be an interesting runner, as could Slavia Prague (66/1), but it's a big ask for them to go all the way.
Odds correct at 1945 BST (08/09/24)
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