Real Madrid v Chelsea: Could this be Timo Werner's chance to shine?
Chelsea edged ahead in the race for the top four with a 1-0 victory over fellow Champions League hopefuls West Ham at the weekend.
It was a result that moved the Blues into 1/2 to finish in the top four.
A rare goal from Timo Werner, only his second in the league since November, saw the Blues move three points clear of their fifth-placed hosts with just five Premier League games to play.
West Ham, who kicked off behind Chelsea on goal difference, had every reason to be affronted at the proposed breakaway league that had dominated the build-up, given that they were above four of the six clubs involved when it was announced.
And it was hardly super stuff from Thomas Tuchel’s side, but they got the job done ahead of a genuine European showdown against Real Madrid on Tuesday night.
Defence Chelsea’s main strength
The result was built upon exactly what Tuchel has instilled in the opening months of his tenure - defensive solidity.
Chelsea allowed chances equating to just 0.50 expected goals (xG).
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
In his 14 league games as Chelsea manager, Tuchel has seen his side concede more than 1.0 xG just once, with their xGA per game average of 0.56 the best in the league since his arrival.
They have taken that form into Europe too, dispatching Atletico Madrid over two legs without conceding, while limiting Porto to little in the quarter-finals – especially in the second leg. It will be a difficult couple of games for Real.
For all of this praise, and in fairness Tuchel has won 14, drawn five and lost just two of 21 games in charge, Chelsea’s attacking numbers leave a lot to be desired.
To say they dominate the football in matches, they really don’t create as much as we would expect, averaging just 1.65 xGF per league game since Tuchel took over.
Will Werner now come to life?
Despite scoring in the league for the first time since November, all the talk on Saturday was about Timo Werner's miss at the London Stadium. That has been the story of his season.
In 40 games across both the Premier and Champions League, Werner has scored nine times from chances equating to 15.7 xG, so he has been wasteful.
However, his xG per 95 minutes of 0.49 is very strong, and shows that he is getting in good scoring positions regularly, something that, if he continues to do, means he will start scoring more frequently.
Obviously it isn't just the fact that he gets in good scoring positions that makes him important to Tuchel's system.
His movement is excellent, as his ability to stretch the opposition defence with his runs in the channel.
Werner's aerial ability is underrated too, as is his hold up play. He has become the focal point of Chelsea's attack, while also being more than capable of playing behind a target man.
He will certainly give Real Madrid's defence a lot to think about on Tuesday, and what better time to properly launch his Blues career than in a Champions League semi-final.
Odds correct as of 20:00 BST (24/04/21)
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