Sporting Life
Jude Bellingham celebrates an England goal

Is Jude Bellingham the best player in the world? A €103 million bargain

By FootballTransfers
Football
Wed October 18, 2023 · 1y ago

It’s hard to believe that less than four months after his big-money move to Real Madrid, the performances of Jude Bellingham have led both fans and pundits to seriously consider that headline question you just read.

His 10 goals and three assists in only ten games, including three goal contributions in two Champions League games, have already made him the darling of the Santiago Bernabeu.

Real's transfer policy is pretty straightforward. Their status as arguably the biggest and most successful club in the world allows them to attract the best and most promising players in the world. But as we saw with Eden Hazard and Luka Jovic, this does not always work out well.

Before his transfer, there was no doubt that the former Borussia Dortmund man was one of the best talents in the world, but Bellingham was expected to take some time to settle into a new league in a foreign country, with new teammates who speak a different language.

But it is hard to think of any player who made a better start in the Spanish capital after a big-money move.

The only one that comes to mind is Cristiano Ronaldo, but Bellingham’s six goals and two assists in his first seven La Liga games, before scoring twice against Osasuna, bettered the six goals and one assist that Ronaldo notched after his then world-record switch from Manchester United.

Being a Galactico can be tough, but some players just thrive under that pressure, and the biggest stage only elevates their performances. We are witnessing this with Bellingham, who is pushing his game to new heights with each passing game.

Jude Bellingham transfer value - how much is he worth now?

According to our player valuation model, Bellinhgham has a current Expected Transfer Value (xTV) of €125.3million, making him the third most valuable player on the planet.

Only Erling Haaland (€141million) and Kylian Mbappe (€136.2million) are valued more highly.

At the time of his transfer, Bellingham’s xTV was in line with Madrid’s initial €103million outlay, but his value has since gone up by over €20 million.

It feels strange to call Bellingham a bargain when he is amongst the most expensive players of all time. But with his best years still ahead of him, it is looking more and more that is the case.

Why is Bellingham playing so well?

Madrid had a disappointing campaign last season by their standards. Manager Carlo Ancelotti struggled to find the right balance in the midfield while trying to slowly transition away from the veteran duo of Luka Modric and Toni Kroos.

At the start of this season they also unexpectedly lost their talisman Karim Benzema to the riches of the Saudi Pro League. With the expected move for Mbappe not materialising, Bellingham was the only big signing of their window.

The lack of a star striker was worrying, but this was Ancelotti’s response when asked if he had thought about signing Napoli striker Victor Osimhen:

“No, because I believe the club thought it could get over Benzema’s absence by signing Bellingham.”

That was some statement to make, and the Italian tactician deployed a new 4-4-2 diamond system which was designed to get the best out of Real’s new midfield star. This would involve a role change for the 20-year-old, who had played in a much deeper position for Borussia Dortmund.

Bellingham is now tasked with being a transition player in midfield and attack. This is a hard thing to master, but his incredible understanding of space means he is always looking to exploit it - whether it be in or out of possession.

The England International also combines the physique and shooting ability of a forward with the vision, dribbling, and workrate of a midfielder.

So he is able to pull the strings between the lines like a playmaker, but also arrive in the box to score goals. The data mirrors this change.

The higher position he is now taking on the pitch has resulted in his final third receptions going up from 11.1 to 17.6 per 90 minutes compared to his final season at Dortmund. This is because the Englishman is not tasked with build-up as much, but rather with getting on the end of passes to score and assist.

You can also see that his build-up passes have gone down from 36.2 to 26.6 per 90, while his chance creation passes have gone up from 11.7 to 18.2 per 90.

His expected goal (xG) figure has also more than doubled from last season to an impressive 0.54 per 90. He is now getting into more dangerous positions and taking twice the amount of close-range shots as he used to.

We are witnessing the evolution of a talented young player into possibly something which has never been seen before, and it will be exciting to see how Bellingham grows into it.

Being the best player in the world requires you to put in top-quality performances every week without having an off day.

It is still early days, but so far, the signs are very, very promising.

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