What has happened to Everton's James Rodriguez? | Premier League analysis
It was inevitable that some of the expected comments about James Rodriguez would emerge from the type of people that count goals and assists as the only currency, and get paid to talk without much knowledge of the situation on the radio.
Gabriel Agbonlahor was the latest to do so on TalkSport, suggesting that James’ numbers had ‘dropped off’ and that ‘maybe he doesn’t like the cold’.
He probably doesn’t - Madrid is nice this time of year, I hear - but is that really affecting his performances on the pitch? Let’s take a look.
In broad terms, the Colombian’s season can be split into two parts; his opening five league matches, where he provided three goals and three assists, and the five matches since, where he has had no direct involvement in a goal. What has he been contributing in the second five?
Well his expected assists in his first five averaged at 0.87xA P90, and since then it has fallen to 0.49xA. That’s a clear and obvious dropoff, but it’s also clear that the rate at which he was providing chances was simply unsustainable. His average across all 10 games is 0.68xA P90 which is the highest in the Premier League this season, better than Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish and, indeed, everyone. Small sample sizes often cause this rise and fall in expectations and just as James was exceeding expectations at the beginning, the accumulation of his 10 matches still represent success to this point.
He’s made 16 key passes in 10 matches, of which eight have been accurate and for chance creation, he created four in the last two outings against Burnley and Leeds. Indeed, his world-class pass through the legs of the defender for Gylfi Sigurdsson at Turf Moor deserved to be rewarded with an assist. Harry Kane, meanwhile, knocks the ball to Son Heung-min 50 yards from goal but gets one. You can see the problem with counting assists.
And James is still contributing in the final third. His completed dribbles (10) in his first five matches is now nine in his last five, with a virtually identical completion rate, while his rate of shots is now just under 2 P90, versus just over two in his first five. There’s not a great deal wrong here.
And given the sample size, one poor data set can drag everything down. His display against Manchester United last month, when Everton lost 3-1, was unquestionably his least effective display in blue, recording zero xG or xA in a game where the Toffees created little.
But other than that aberration he was still attempting shots, and completing dribbles, at the same rate as he has always been. Numbers even themselves and what will also be encouraging to Carlo Ancelotti is how much he is contributing in the defensive phase of the game.
He’s not acting like a luxurious asset that doesn’t get involved in the dirty side of things. He led the Everton press against Burnley at the weekend and no-one on his side attempted more tackles, while none of the attacking players made more defensive challenges. He’s an active and vibrant member of the team and to suggest otherwise, at this point, is lazy.
Whether he can keep it going is another story. He only made five starts and three substitute appearances for Real Madrid last season and he’s already far surpassed his minutes played already, with a positively packed second half of the campaign to come.
With more games than ever facing Everton and with him and Richarlison carrying most of the creative burden, his output may yet suffer. The 29-year-old hasn’t started more than 20 league matches in a season since his first at Real Madrid in 14/15, and conditioning will be a concern.
But as of right now, no, the cold isn’t affecting him. The underlying performance metrics are becoming more active. Should James stay fit, he will continue to return those coveted goals and assists, though there’s more to like than that.
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