As the Premier League season prepares for its June 17 restart with nine fixtures still to play, we look at each contender in the race to for the Golden Boot.
Odds up to date as of 11:00 BST June 1
With seven players separated by just five goals, we had to draw the line somewhere, so it's the current top five that'll get our focus as the most likely candidates to be battling it out to finish the campaign as the division's leading goal-scorer.
Although if you want an outside punt, Liverpool forward Sadio Mane (14/1) and Manchester United's fit-again Marcus Rashford (16/1) both sit on 14 goals and only five behind the current leading marksman.
But that's a lot to make up in just nine matches, especially given who's in the driving seat the moment.
Jamie Vardy - 19 goals
Leicester's remaining fixtures:
- Watford (A)
- Brighton (H)
- Everton (A)
- Crystal Palace (H)
- Arsenal (A)
- Bournemouth (A)
- Sheffield United (H)
- Tottenham (A)
- Manchester United (H)
On December 21 2019, Jamie Vardy was 10/11 to win the Golden Boot. By late February, he'd drifted to 7/2 third favourite. So if you backed him then, you can feel pretty pleased with yourself.
The specific date I'm referencing just prior to Christmas was when the former England striker put Leicester 1-0 up at Manchester City to move on to 17 goals from 18 Premier League games.
He then went on his longest goal drought in more than three years, not helped by missing several matches because of the birth of his daughter and then a slight injury.
The final top-flight fixture before coronavirus caused football's pause button to be pressed saw Vardy end that barren run of nine matches in all competitions by netting twice against Aston Villa.
That performance brought to light just how phenomenal he has been against teams in the bottom half of the Premier League this season: 15 of his 19 goals have come against sides currently sitting between 11th and 20th in the table.
And the 33-year-old will get the opportunity to find his form against four such teams in successive matches when the Foxes get back on the field in June, as well as against Bournemouth in the final five games.
Personally I expect him to plunder enough goals in those matches alone to give him the required buffer heading into the final few fixtures. More over, with such a congested fixture list Brendan Rodgers will undoubtedly managed his star man's minutes to unleash him when he is most potent.
Who'd bet against Vardy scoring off the bench against tired defences too, causing agony to labouring centre-halves by turning on that lightning pace for which he's renowned.
He's going to take some catching in this race too.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang - 17 goals
Arsenal's remaining fixtures:
- Manchester City (A)
- Brighton (A)
- Southampton (A)
- Norwich (H)
- Wolves (A)
- Leicester (H)
- Tottenham (A)
- Liverpool (H)
- Aston Villa (A)
- Watford (H)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang shared the Golden Boot with Liverpool duo Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane last season and is gunning to take it for himself this time around.
The Arsenal captain's all-round performances have been nothing short of sensational since Mikel Arteta became head coach in late December, thriving in his now consistent inside-left position. In pure goal-scoring, he's notched seven in 10 matches in all competitions.
If he can replicate those numbers - the Gunners have a game in hand on all but three of their top-flight rivals - Aubameyang would finish on 24 Premier League goals for the season.
His improvement in the weeks prior to the break is highlighted by the fact that only in early February was he an incredible 14/1 to finish the campaign as the division's top scorer.
What favours Aubameyang if you're considering backing him is his perfectly even split in terms of home and away goals. Given we don't know how Premier League teams' will be affected by neutral stadiums and an absence of fans, the Gabon striker's consistency suggests he'll score anywhere.
Arsenal's remaining fixtures, like their captain's goals, are a perfect split too.
Five teams from the bottom end - Brighton, Southampton, Norwich, Aston Villa, Watford - and five from the top end - Man City, Wolves, Leicester, Tottenham, Liverpool - with no in between.
If Aubameyang wants to give Jamie Vardy a run for his money, he might need to fill his boots against the strugglers.
Sergio Aguero - 16 goals
Manchester City's remaining fixtures:
- Arsenal (H)
- Manchester United (A)
- Burnley (H)
- Chelsea (A)
- Liverpool (H)
- Southampton (A)
- Newcastle (H)
- Brighton (A)
- Bournemouth (H)
- Watford (A)
- Norwich (H)
I like Sergio Aguero at 5/1, I really like him.
Amazingly, he's only won this award once in his eight seasons in England.
Sticking my neck on the line to say who I think will win it this year, I go for Jamie Vardy, but in terms of value and where I'd stick my money, it's Aguero.
The Argentine is starting the rebooted season three goals off the pace, but with a game in hand.
And the biggest thing to consider when it comes to Aguero is his ability to score multiple goals in a game. If he does that close to the June 17 restart, those 5/1 odds will be a thing of the past.
Aguero is one of only five players in Premier League history to have scored five times in the same match - his league record 12 hat-tricks is the best illustration of his streaky nature.
Look at this season, it was a run of seven goals in four league games in early 2020 that catapulted him into contention for the Golden Boot. That was his second 'streak' of the campaign, having begun this term with eight goals in six matches; in between it's been fairly barren.
In terms of potency, Aguero is also streaks ahead of the other contenders, scoring once every 88 minutes in the Premier League - the next best is Vardy at 117.
City's closing fixtures involve a nice mixture of opponents, so I don't think that will necessarily hold much significance other than perhaps if you look at their final four - arguably six - matches.
Even if Aguero was five goals adrift with those games to go, I could see him hunting down whoever is top of the tree. Six of the current bottom eight to finish the season?
So maybe the fixture list will play its part.
My head just says Vardy if my mortgage was at stake, but my bank balance will be rooting for Aguero.
Mohamad Salah - 16 goals
Liverpool's remaining fixtures:
- Everton (A)
- Crystal Palace (H)
- Manchester City (A)
- Aston Villa (H)
- Brighton (A)
- Burnley (H)
- Arsenal (A)
- Chelsea (H)
- Newcastle (A)
Mohamed Salah has been an utter revelation since joining Liverpool in 2017, scoring 70 league goals in 100 Premier League games. He's now in the running to win the Golden Boot for a third season out of three, and that statement alone makes his odds of 5/1 tempting.
In stark contrast to Sergio Aguero, the Egyptian has been a picture of consistency this season, with his longest barren run standing at just three league games.
Of the current top eight, Liverpool have only Manchester City and Chelsea left to play, leaving Salah a handful of of weaker opponents to try and fill his boots against.
And with the Reds' season potentially over after just one match - depending on Manchester City's results, they could mathematically clinch the title with victory at Everton - might we see a return of the more gung-ho style Jurgen Klopp football of 2017/18?
Liverpool shipped plenty of goals that season, but Salah scored an incredible 45 in all competitions.
Danny Ings - 15 goals
Remaining fixtures:
- Norwich (A)
- Arsenal (H)
- Watford (A)
- Manchester City (H)
- Everton (A)
- Manchester United (A)
- Brighton (H)
- Bournemouth (A)
- Sheffield United (A)
Danny Ings is having the season of his life, and let's hope for his sake that the enforced break doesn't complete derail it. To highlight just how good he's been, you need only look at his pre-season odds of 200/1 to win the Golden Boot.
To be only four goals off the pace with 10 games to play then, and still be available at 16/1, is superb value. And the disrupted campaign might not be as bad you think for the 27-year-old.
The Southampton striker finding the net 13 times in 16 games shot him into contention, and essentially secured Saints' survival, but the goals have dried up since. Just one in his last seven league appearances.
The break could be just what he needed, not just to reset after a slowdown in his goal-scoring but also given his years of injury hell. Ings has already made 33 appearances in all competitions this season having made only 51 in the previous four combined.
If he can come back fresh and firing, then on the return to action Saints have strugglers Norwich and Watford away from home either side of defensively porous Arsenal.
Southampton have the sixth-best away record in the division, by the way.
Ings at 16/1 feels like a big price, but it reflects his lack of previous prolific seasons. It would take a brave punter to go heavy on him with the four names ahead of him in the race.
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