Aston Villa v Wolves betting tips and preview: We look ahead to Saturday's Premier League meeting

Aston Villa v Wolves betting preview: Premier League predictions, free betting tips, best bets and stats for Saturday's clash

By Joe Townsend

Football

Sat June 27, 2020 · 4y ago

Saturday's only Premier League fixture sees Aston Villa take on Wolves in a West Midlands derby. We look at the betting for the lunchtime kick-off at Villa Park.

Recommended bets

1pt Wolves to win and under 2.5 goals at 11/4

1pt Adama Traore & Raul Jimenez 1+ Shots On Target at 7/4

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Aston Villa v Wolves

1230 BST kick-off on BT Sport
Match Odds: Home 18/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 4/5

Wolves duo Adama Traore (left) and Raul Jimenez celebrate the latter's goal against Bournemouth

If anyone had any doubts about Wolves' Champions League qualification credentials before the shutdown, then they've been quickly dispelled in their opening two matches of the restart. Straightforward wins at West Ham and at home to Bournemouth, with clean sheets in both, have taken Nuno Espirito Santo's side level on points with fifth-placed Manchester United.

Such has been the form of the Red Devils since Bruno Fernandes' January arrival, that Nuno's men have largely gone under the radar, but their solitary Premier League defeat since New Year's Day came against Liverpool in a match they dominated - only the Reds themselves have lost fewer than Wolves' six top-flight games this term.

Their two wins over the past week have been based on a simple methodology that has served the club well thus far, one based on mean defence and two star players: Adama Traore and Raul Jimenez. Against the Hammers, it was Traore's second-half introduction which turned the game as he laid on the perfect cross for Jimenez to head home, before being the driving force behind the second goal too. For the Bournemouth game, copy and paste that opening goal.

Post-match at the London Stadium, Irons boss David Moyes said they "couldn't control Traore", while pre-game Eddie Howe said his Cherries team had to "stop Traore getting the ball" so he's not exactly surprising people - stopping him is another matter.

The Spaniard is 11/4 to provide another assist when he takes on his former club at Saturday lunchtime, and it's 13/2 for he and his partner in crime Jimenez to repeat their double act - another good value market the duo's recent form is another headed goal from the Mexican at 11/2.

But what sticks out for me is for both players to manage 1+ shot on target at 7/4.

Yes, Traore is all about the assists - with 12 in all competitions - but when a team is so keen to stop the cross it usually leads to an opportunity to shoot. Throw in the motivation to score against a former club and one attempt on target is not a lot to ask. Then there is Jimenez, whose 38 shots on target in this season's Premier League is second only to Mo Salah, so enough said on him.

Dean Smith's Aston Villa have conceded a league high 59 goals this season

I don't hold out much hope for Aston Villa in this one, I'll be honest.

We saw in Manchester City's defeat at Chelsea, which clinched the title for Liverpool, that even a squad of City's depth and quality can be affected by the congested nature of this Premier League restart. Pep Guardiola's team simply lacked the intensity and freshness of their previous matches.

Like City, Sheffield United and Arsenal, Villa have played an extra game, so this will be their fourth in just 11 days. Wolves on the other hand are coming to the end of a pretty typical week given that they're used to playing in the Europa League on a Thursday. In fact, you could even argue that Saturday, Wednesday, Saturday is pretty tame for them.

Part of the reason I have added a shots on target best bet is because of what I feel is a fair bit of uncertainty when it comes to how Wolves will win this game - which at the same time gives us value.

Only Tottenham are above the two West Midlands clubs in the Premier League's BTTS chart, with the duo on 65% - 3% behind Spurs. But it is very, very misleading.

Villa's goalless draw with Sheffield United in the opening match of Project Restart was the first occasion in 14 home matches in all competitions that they have failed to find the net, and they have definitely returned to action as a far more solid unit. To concede only three times in three games is impressive for them given their horrendous defensive record.

Then you have Wolves, who were streaks ahead in the BTTS table. In six of their last seven league games, both teams haven't scored. The upturn in form that Nuno's side have enjoyed has been based on tightening things up - seven clean sheets in 10 matches in all competitions.

That recent form is enough for me to back them to keep Villa out, but I wouldn't blame you for adding a goal on for the reasons outlined, and taking the 7/5 on offer instead.

Wolves to win 1-0 is the favourite score with the bookies, but astonishingly their win over Bournemouth on Wednesday night was their first 1-0 win in the Premier League this season. Such is their potency on the counter attack, that they very often add a late second.

Prediction: Aston Villa 0-2 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bets:

Opta stats

Aston Villa have lost just one of their last 14 home games against Wolves in all competitions (W10 D3), going down 0-1 in the Premier League in March 2011. Indeed, the Villans have already beaten Wolves at Villa Park this season (2-1 in the EFL Cup).
Wolves are looking to complete a league double over Aston Villa for the first time since the 1962-63 campaign.
Aston Villa have picked up just two points from their last 21 available in the Premier League (W0 D2 L5).
Aston Villa’s last six Premier League wins have been against sides in the bottom half of the table. They’re winless in their last 19 top-flight games against sides starting the day in the top six (D2 L17), losing each of the last 13 in a row.
Wolves have won six Premier League away games this season – they last won more on the road in a single top-flight campaign in 1979-80 (10).
Wolves have kept six clean sheets in their last seven Premier League matches (W4 D3), facing just 11 shots in their last two games combined and only four in their 1-0 win over Bournemouth.
Aston Villa have won more fouls than any other Premier League side this season (411), with 35% of these being won by Jack Grealish alone (144).
Wolves duo Raúl Jiménez and Adama Traoré have combined for 10 Premier League goals this season, only the seventh time in Premier League history that two players have combined for 10 or more goals in a single season.
Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez is the top scoring Premier League player in all competitions this season, netting 24 goals. The last time a Wolves player netted more in a single campaign was Sylvan Ebanks-Blake in 2008-09 (25).
No player has netted more winning goals in the Premier League this season than Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez (7), with the Mexican scoring the winner in each of their last three victories in the competition.

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