Free football betting tips: Southampton v Newcastle - Premier League preview & best bets

Recommended bets

1pt James Ward-Prowse to score anytime 4/1

1pt Under 8.5 corners 11/5

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Southampton v Newcastle

• 20:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
• Match odds: Home 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 29/10

Southampton fans’ worst fears were realised in midweek as it was confirmed leading scorer Danny Ings will be missing until around Christmas after undergoing knee surgery.

While by no means a one-man team, Ings’ absence will come as a huge blow to Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side, given so much of their attacking play is centred around the 28-year-old.

He was an ever-present last season, scoring 21 times in 38 Premier League games and looked on course to perhaps better that figure, having netted five in his opening seven matches this term. Fortunately, it seems Ings’ latest knee trouble is nowhere near as serious as the ligament damage that ruined his time at Liverpool.

But Saints will still have to soldier on for six weeks, starting with Friday’s visit of Newcastle – and their record without Ings will not bring home fans much optimism.

The England striker last missed a significant chunk of action during 2018-19, when on loan at Southampton from Liverpool, and Saints lost nine of 13 games when he was unavailable.

Two years on, they are a different team and their sparkling start to the season should indicate they can get by without him but their head-to-head record with Newcastle is another stumbling block.

The Toon Army are unbeaten in their past five meetings with Southampton, winning four, and when you factor in Ings’ injury, it all makes it difficult to confidently back the hosts at odds-on.

There’s little point trying to predict wildly-erratic Newcastle but they have ground out some decent results thus far, not least their win over Everton last weekend. Steve Bruce’s side have also weathered storms to draw at Tottenham and Wolves in their past two away games and if you must have a punt on the outcome, the draw is best value at 13/5.

But with Newcastle seemingly unable to keep a clean sheet and the short-odds Ings not around, the goalscorer market is where value can be found. Saints centre-back Jannik Vestergaard has scored twice this season and is widely available at 9/1 anytime, but it’s in-form captain fantastic James Ward-Prowse who I’m siding with.

With Ings sidelined, set-piece specialist Ward-Prowse should increase as an open-play threat too against a Newcastle side who concede more shots on goal than any other top-flight team.

The midfielder has struck three times in Saints’ last two games, including two sumptuous free-kicks in the 4-3 win at Aston Villa last Sunday, and should be brimming with confidence after once again being included in the England squad.

I was astounded to see him at 4/1 to score anytime with both Betfair and Paddy Power, with him much shorter generally.

One area where both sides are underperforming this season is the corners market – only West Brom have taken fewer than Southampton’s 20 while Newcastle (29) are 15th of the 20 teams.

Saints’ attacking options are lessened without not only Ings but Ryan Bertrand, another injury victim of the win at Villa, who wins plenty of corners when bombing forward from left-back.

Under 8.5 would have landed in both of Southampton’s last two home games and in three of Newcastle’s past four matches, so it looks a good play at 11/5 - again with Betfair and Paddy.

Score prediction: Southampton 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bets:

1pt James Ward-Prowse to score anytime 4/1

1pt Under 8.5 corners 11/5

Odds correct on 1400 BST (05/11/20)

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