How many goals will Erling Haaland score this season and can anyone catch him?
Erling Haaland is running away as the league's top scorer, but how many goals will he score this season, and can anyone catch him? Jake Osgathorpe runs the numbers.
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Manchester City's giant Norwegian striker usually does the overshadowing, but Erling Haaland, and his potentially record-breaking season, has been shunted out of the spotlight in the last month by the World Cup.
Haaland wasn't in Qatar as his nation failed to qualify, so the current leader in the Premier League Golden Boot race has been left stewing, itching to get back on the pitch and terrorize defenders on his way to again climbing aboard the goal train.
When the season paused with Manchester City having played 14 games, Haaland topped the scoring charts with 18 goals, some six ahead of his nearest rival Harry Kane.
Records really are in his sights. He needs only 15 more goals in City's remaining 24 matches to break the 38-game Premier League season scoring record, and 17 to break the all-time top-flight scoring mark which was set in a 42-game season.
Given he's averaging a league-leading 1.01 expected goals (xG) per 95 minutes, it seems incredibly likely this will happen, especially in this season of all seasons with Haaland set to be incredibly fresh and injury-free come the restart of the campaign.
I say 'it's incredibly likely to happen', but using maths we can calculate the actual probability of Haaland breaking those records, and also make projections of just how many goals he will score.
Calculations and factors
We have done two separate calculations of just how many goals Haaland could finish the season with, and here's why.
At this moment in time, the Norwegian has scored 18 times from chances equating to 12.01 xG, meaning he has thus far over-performed what is expected of him by 50%.
Now, we are yet to see someone over-perform by that margin over a full season, but, while rare, we have seen players exceed their xG totals by 40% across a full campaign.
So, the first calculation is if Haaland continues to over-perform by 40%.
The second, and most likely scenario, is that Haaland performs in-line with what is expected of him or, in other words, finishes his chances at an expected rate.
Let's call the 40% over-performance calculation the 'EXTREME' projection, and the performance at expected level calculation the 'LIKELY' projection.
It is also worth mentioning that both calculations include the caveat that Haaland plays only 80 minutes per game of the remaining season, to factor in early substitutions or potential injuries.
Will Haaland break the Premier League records?
Let's start with the current 38-game Premier League record, and the probability Haaland eclipses it.
Mohamed Salah is the current owner of the record, having netted 32 times in 2017/18, but according to both the LIKELY and EXTREME calculations, that record won't stand for much longer.
There is a 90.4% chance Haaland scores 33 goals or more according to the LIKELY projection, and the EXTREME calculation makes it a near certainty at 99.8%.
On to the all-time record then, which is 34 goals and is jointly held by Andrew Cole and Alan Shearer, who both managed that feat in a 42-game season.
It's a 79.4% chance that Manchester City's number nine eclipses that total says the LIKELY simulation, and again, a near certainty he does so according to the EXTREME projection at 99.2%.
You are starting to see the frightening levels the EXTREME Haaland could reach.
How many goals will Haaland score in the 22/23 Premier League?
Those are the records out of the way, what about other milestones?
Well, from the LIKELY calculations, Haaland has a 54.9% chance of hitting 38 goals this season, which would mean he ends the campaign averaging a goal a game.
The percentages dip after that, with a 37.4% chance he gets to the 40 mark, and just a 0.9% chance he manages to score 50. In odds terms, the LIKELY simulations make it 2.65 (33/20) he hits 40, and 111.0 (110/1) he scores 50 or more.
From the EXTREME projections, it's a whopping 90.5% chance Haaland scores 40 or more, and a 54.8% chance he breaks the 45 goal barrier.
If over-performing by 40%, there is a 26.6% chance the Norwegian hits the back of the net 50 or more times, and a 6.5% chance we see him score 55 or more.
We go on. According to the EXTREME calculations, Haaland has a 0.9% chance of finishing the season with 60 or more goals! Finally, we calculate there is a 0.02% chance he nets 67 or more.
Will Haaland win the Golden Boot?
So, given all the maths and big numbers above, the answer to the 'Will Haaland win the Golden Boot?' question must be a resounding YES, right?
Well, I know you thought the calculations were over, but there are a few more of interest.
We can simulate the remainder of the season for all players to calculate the chance of them scoring 'x' number of goals, and with that we can determine the probability of each player winning the Golden Boot based on variables such as; player xG/95, how many goals their team will be in for between now and the end of the season, and the portion of that total they are expected to get themselves.
Premier League 22/23 top goalscorer odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/6 - Erling Haaland
- 8/1 - Harry Kane
- 33/1 - Ivan Toney, Mohamed Salah
- 50/1 - Darwin Nunez
- 66/1 - Aleksandar Mitrovic
- 80/1 - Gabriel Jesus, Marcus Rashford, Wilfried Zaha, Rodrigo
- 100/1 bar
Odds correct at 2030 GMT (16/12/22)
Plugging those figures into the equation, and we calculate there is a 91.5% chance Haaland finishes the season as the top scorer.
That percentage converted to odds gives us a price of around 1/10, so the 1/6 that is widely available still represents value if your thing is betting on those kinds of prices.
Who wins the Golden Boot WITHOUT Haaland?
Interestingly though, some bookies are offering a 'Top Scorer without Haaland' market, and we've simulations for that too.
Harry Kane leads the field currently in both goals (12) and odds (8/13), priced as the short favourite to win the 'top scorer without Haaland' gong.
Infogol also makes Kane the favourite in this market, but nowhere near the implied chance of 61.9% the bookies give him. We calculate he has a 40.2% (6/4) chance of winning the 'without Haaland' golden boot.
That means he is one to swerve in the market, making plenty of players below him value bets, especially with two (Betfair, Paddy Power) and three (William Hill) each-way places available.
Premier League 22/23 top goalscorer without Erling Haaland odds (via Sky Bet)
- 8/13 - Harry Kane (12 goals)
- 10/1 - Mohamed Salah (6)
- 14/1 - Aleksandar Mitrovic (9)
- 20/1 - Ivan Toney (10), Rodrigo Moreno (9)
- 22/1 - Phil Foden (7)
- 33/1 - Callum Wilson (6), Wilfried Zaha (6), Marcus Rashford (4)
- 40/1 - Gabriel Jesus (5), Heung-min Son (3), Leandro Trossard (7)
- 50/1 bar
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (20/12/22) - market paying two places at 1/3 odds
Second behind the Tottenham striker on the scoring charts is fellow Englishman Ivan Toney who has 10 goals to his name. We can get the Brentford man at 14/1 which implies a 6.7% chance, so the 21.6% (18/5) chance Infogol gives him makes the price available huge value.
The same can be said for the two players one goal further back of Toney.
Aleksandar Mitrovic - who Sporting Life readers are on at 80/1 pre-season - has nine goals for Fulham and is priced at 22/1 (4.3%) with William Hill in the 'without Haaland' market, meaning the Serbian striker also represents value. Infogol gives him a 13.2% (13/2) chance of winning this race.
The one player who represents the most value is Leeds forward Rodrigo Moreno. He is also tied with Mitrovic on nine goals, but is priced at 40/1 (2.4%) with William Hill in this market which is huge, especially given his main striking competitor, Patrick Bamford, underwent surgery recently.
Infogol gives Rodrigo an 18.1% (9/2) chance of scoring more goals than anyone else bar Haaland, and so given three places are available each-way, that looks a solid proposition.
Players to definitely swerve in the market are Phil Foden (bookies 25/1=3.8%, Infogol 0.3%=332/1), James Maddison (bookies 33/1=2.9%, Infogol 0.7%=142/1) and Roberto Firmino (bookies 25/1=3.8%, Infogol 0.8%=124/1).
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