Neal Maupay, Teemu Pukki & Billy Sharp: How many goals can new Premier League trio get?
Neal Maupay, Teemu Pukki and Billy Sharp all opened their Premier League accounts with goals on the opening weekend.
Sharp rescued a point for Sheffield United as they drew away at Bournemouth. For Pukki, he netted a consolation as Norwich were convincingly beaten by Liverpool and Maupay sealed the result for Brighton in a 3-0 win away at Watford.
The trio all hit above 20 goals in successful 2018/19 Sky Bet Championship campaigns. Sharp and Pukki were both promoted with their current teams while Maupay earned himself a £20m price tag which was enough to tempt Brighton into a purchase.
Can they continue their fine form in front of goal though as all three teams look to remain in the Premier League this season?
A look at the statistics from last season highlights why they can hit double figures in England's top flight. They may have different qualities, but all have the ability to find the net.
For reference, expected goals measures the quality of shot, the angle and distance alongside defining it as a big chance in order to create a judgement of how many goals a player is expected to score per game.
Expected goals on target includes the above, but takes into account the location where the shot ended up; giving more credit to those shots that were destined for the bottom corner.
Using the above, combined with an analysis of their strengths, we predict how many goals each will score in the Premier League this season.
Billy Sharp
It took Sharp just six minutes to find the net after coming on as a late substitute on Saturday.
Hardly a surprise. Sharp fired his beloved Blades back into the Premier League with 23 goals in just 40 league games last season. The captain led by example.
His strike at the Vitality Stadium was his first in the Premier League; that's despite being a regular goalscorer at EFL level.
Now 33, this is likely to be the boyhood Blade's last season in the Premier League; that is of course dependent on where Sheffield United finish in May.
Sharp was in the top-seven for expected goals last season, also high for expected goals on target, but the striker boasted more than predicted on his tally.
The goalscoring start to the campaign has put Sharp among the league leaders when it comes to expected goals in the Premier League with 0.77. We have, of course, only played a single game.
He's carried his great form into the 2019/20 season, which will only benefit his own personal tally and United's chance of survival.
Prediction: 10 goals - With Robinson and McGoldrick the starting pair on opening weekend, coupled with the big money arrival of Oli McBurnie, Sharp will find his game time limited this season. He'll be looked upon as someone to provide an impact from the bench, which he did at Bournemouth, but limited minutes on the pitch also means limited time to find the net.
Neal Maupay
Brighton's big money addition up front saw Neal Maupay join the club from Brentford for a £20m fee late in the transfer window.
His debut couldn't have gone any better, netting a goal from the bench as Graham Potter's side secured all three points in a 3-0 victory away at Watford.
Maupay sat the highest of this trio in expected goals last season, although Pukki had a better tally, while his expected goals on target was only bettered by Jordan Rhodes and Tammy Abraham.
Given Brighton's new attacking style, Maupay should have no problem in adjusting to life in the Premier League.
His link-up play is excellent; possessing an ability to pick out key passes to wide players and his strike partner. For a side looking to hit teams on the break, Maupay fits with his capability to hold on to the ball and wait for others to join the attack.
Of course, every striker needs strong finishing ability and the Frenchman is no exception. Whether it be through creating his own opportunities or receiving passes from team mates, he can pick out the corners and strike in areas where it is difficult for any goalkeeper to prevent a goal being scored.
Prediction: 17 goals - I've gone with Maupay as an each-way possibility for top goalscorer in the Premier League this season and he can hit the ground running for Albion. Once fully settled in, you imagine he will be the starting striker for Potter with the ability to rotate between Glenn Murray, Florin Andone and Jurgen Locadia as his striking partner. Brighton's attacking style of play means that he is the perfect fit for this system. Aerial duels are a weakness, although that won't be too much of a problem in this team.
Sky Bet: Neal Maupay to be Premier League top goalscorer at 100/1 (e.w. 1/4 - 1-4)
Teemu Pukki
The bargain signing of last summer was Teemu Pukki. He joined Norwich on a free transfer from Brondby in Denmark and went onto net 29 goals as the Canaries won the Championship title.
Pukki is quite similar to Maupay in style of play. An excellent ability to hold on to the ball while also making key passes to team mates puts him as a creative player alongside a finisher.
His expected goals were actually quite low in comparison with his rivals last season; despite finishing as the top goalscorer in the division.
The Finland international sat in ninth when it came to expected goals per game, roughly on the same mark as QPR loanee Tomer Hemed, but the key was his actual tally which was four clear of Maupay in second.
Pukki has a heavy reliance on his right foot and rarely scores goals through any other method. 97% of his goals last season came from inside the area too, with main creativity coming from the influential attacking midfield trio of Emi Buendia, Marco Stiepermann and Onel Hernandez.
A goal away at Liverpool also suggests that he will have little issue with the step up to the top flight. Momentum is key for Norwich this season, despite that heavy defeat at Anfield, and Pukki seems to be carrying that into the 2019/20 campaign.
Prediction: 14 goals - An opening day strike, combined with Norwich's intent for attack, means this season will be one in which Pukki hits double figures. He'll get the opportunities to score and his debut campaign in yellow highlighted how he will take them. City are tipped for relegation by some, odds-on with the bookmakers, but the striker is one player they will look to in order to ensure their safety.
Sky Bet: Diogo Jota, Teemu Pukki, Youri Tielemans & Wesley Moraes each to score 10+ PL goals at 12/1
Odds correct at 1655 BST (15/08/19)
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