How did Manchester City win the Premier League title? Rigid defence behind latest success
After squeezing 35 games into 238 days, a grueling and ultimately anticlimactic Premier League title race is over.
Manchester City reclaim the crown away from the pitch, and with three games to spare following Manchester United's defeat to Leicester at Old Trafford.
City's title success is wholly justified, sitting comfortably clear on Infogol's expected goals (xG) table. It just came in a way we didn't expect.
In what has undoubtedly been the strangest season in the Premier League era for a number of reasons, the fact that Pep Guardiola’s side’s triumph has been powered by a dominant defence rather than an exhilarating attack is somewhat surprising — although it didn't start in such a manner.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
City’s shaky start
After beginning the season with a relatively routine win at Wolves, City were severely exposed against Leicester and Leeds, conceding a total of 5.73 expected goals against (xGA) in those two matches, performances that provoked a significant shift in Pep’s approach.
It is perhaps ironic that Guardiola was driven to a more controlled, defensively solid style after a match-up with Marcelo Bielsa, a coach that had great influence on his attacking philosophy.
Some might argue that City’s long win streak was the turning point in their season, but a swift change in tact following the 1-1 draw at Elland Road was the real decisive moment.
City posted astounding defensive numbers across their next 24 league matches, allowing an average of 0.62 xGA per game and conceding just 10 goals, including two penalties and one own goal.
Results didn’t mirror Pep’s side rapid development immediately, but when they did, City were recognised as an unstoppable force.
Limiting opponents to so few scoring opportunities was the foundation required ahead of a 15-game winning run that gave City an almost unassailable lead at the top of the table.
Manchester United ended that streak with a 2-0 derby win, and with it an incredible stretch of defensive displays, but hopes of lifting the Premier League trophy ahead of their local rival were over.
Rúben Dias the rock
It is no fortunate stroke of serendipity that City’s improvement at the back coincides with the acquisition of Rúben Dias from Benfica.
What may have appeared an expensive panic buy directly following the embarrassing 5-2 defeat to Leicester in September looks anything but desperate now.
After his baptism of fire against Bielsa’s Leeds, Dias has been nothing short of exceptional, having a similar impact on City as Virgil van Dijk had on Liverpool.
The Portuguese defender currently leads the Premier League in passes made, highlighting the element of control Guardiola’s men have seized over the course of the season, but it is a testament to his unquestioned importance that Dias’ leadership traits are far more lauded than any other quality he possesses.
As a result, it’s no surprise that we’ve witnessed a John Stones renaissance and Joao Cancelo flourish with Dias by their side — a colossus that has elevated every player’s level.
A shaky start, along with the understandable relaxation involved in holding a big lead in the table, means this won’t be City’s most impressive season in terms of defensive metrics.
However, the weight of their solidity this term compared to others is not to be underestimated given the underlying numbers City produced going forward in 2020/21.
City have averaged 2.04 expected goals for (xGF) per game in the Premier League, their lowest under Guardiola, making an improved defensive process more crucial than ever.
Those figures are a notable decline on City's previous seasons with Pep at the helm, which is reflected in the goals scored column.
City scored 95.75 goals per season on average between 2016/17 and 2019/20, but have needed just 72 to secure the Premier League this season, further underlining their achievements in keeping opposition quiet.
Room for improvement?
That begs the question, are City capable of better?
Granted, attack and defence work symbiotically, which could explain the dip in numbers alongside an improved defensive unit, but the idea that there could be more to come from City is a scary thought considering how close the club were to the possibility of a quadruple this campaign.
What is clear is that Manchester City have developed into an immovable object at the back this season. If they return to an unstoppable force going forward without losing their new-found rigidity, it's difficult to see any team competing at the same level.
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