Sky Bet Championship: How the How final day drama unfolded
As the final day of the Sky Bet Championship season arrived, all three relegation spots were still open to the four teams at the bottom-end of the table.
Derby knew a win would guarantee them safety, while both Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday, who were playing at the Rams, needed to win and hope other results went their way.
Despite being mathematically possible, Wycombe needed a miraculous goal swing along with results going in their favour to survive their historic season in England's second tier.
It was to be a nervous day for Sporting Life followers who had joined my colleague Tom Carnduff in backing Sheffield Wednesday to be relegated at 9/4, and the same for Infogol followers who were waiting on Wycombe to be relegated for an ante post winner.
Using the Infogol model and the percentage chances of survival, we explain how the day unfolded between the four teams.
12:30 - Kick-off
Before a ball was kicked, Infogol calculated that Derby had a 69% chance of survival, with Sheffield Wednesday at 19%, Rotherham at 14% and Wycombe at less than 0.0001%.
The Rams held the advantage and the drama began early with the game at Pride Park kicking-off some four minutes after the Rotherham and Wycombe matches.
12:38 - Rotherham go 1-0 up
Rotherham took the lead at Cardiff thanks to a stunner from Lewis Wing. The Infogol model calculated he had a 3% chance of scoring his volley from outside the area.
With it goalless at Derby, Rotherham were out of the relegation zone, but Infogol calculated that Derby were still in the driving seat, having a 60% chance of staying up. There was more hope for the Millers' chances though - they had increased to 26%.
12:44 – Wycombe lead
Wycombe go 1-0 up at Middlesbrough. Unfortunately for the Chairboys, they needed to win by double digits at the Riverside to have any chance.
Their probability of survival remained nearly nothing.
13:05 – Wycombe go two up
Gareth Ainsworth’s side go 2-0 up on Teeside thanks to Gareth McCleary’s strike.
Rotherham were still leading 1-0, while Derby and Sheffield Wednesday remained goalless
Derby were still favoured to survive by the model, with Wayne Rooney’s side given a 56% chance of staying up, though as the minutes ticked by, Rotherham’s chances were increasing significantly.
At this time, Paul Warne' side had a 34% chance of survival.
13:20 – Owls lead at Pride Park
Sheffield Wednesday took the lead at Pride Park thanks to Sam Hutchinson’s goal just before half-time.
The Derby v Wednesday match, which kicked off later than the others, was delayed further due to two lengthy injury stoppages, so the other games were already five minutes into the break. Rotherham and Wycombe were both still leading.
This goal changed a lot. It was the first time in the afternoon where Rotherham were favourites to survive - they had a 49% chance of remaining in the Championship.
Wednesday’s chances jumped up to 30% as a Cardiff equaliser combined with them holding on to victory would see them survive. Wycombe were all but down at this point, while Derby needed a big turnaround.
13:45 – Derby equalise
Four minutes into the second-half and Derby equalised. Martyn Waghorn scored a cracking header to level the score, and it was the Rams who were now favourites to survive at 53%.
Rotherham were at 39%, but only needed Derby to fail to win if they could hold on to their 1-0 lead.
At the same time, Wycombe made it 3-0 at Middlesbrough.
13:48 – Rams take the lead
Two goals in three minutes meant that Derby were fully in control of the relegation picture now, with Patrick Roberts' stunner putting them ahead. His goal from distance had a 4% chance of being converted.
Their chances of staying in the second tier jumped up to 84% as a result, while Wednesday's dropped to 2% and Rotherham's moved to 15%.
The Derby v Wednesday game was now around ten minutes behind Rotherham’s match.
13:58 – Patterson equalises for Wednesday
More goals at Pride Park, as Sheffield Wednesday equalised through Callum Patterson capitalising on a defensive error.
That moved Wednesday one goal away from the result they needed to have any chance, but it also increased Rotherham’s chances of survival drastically, up to 42%, while Derby were now in the relegation places and needed to either score again or hope Cardiff equalised.
14:05 – Owls lead again
Yet more drama. Sheffield Wednesday took the lead at Pride Park thanks to Julian Borner’s header from centimetres out. That meant the Owls were doing all they could and required an equaliser in Cardiff.
It was a big goal for Rotherham, as their chances of staying up moved to 71%. It was the first time in the afternoon that the Millers had a better chance of remaining in the Championship than dropping into Sky Bet League One.
Derby were again the outsider of the three at 10%, with the Owls at 19%.
14:15 – Rotherham concede
Heartbreak for Rotherham. A late Marlon Pack strike from distance levelled things up at the Cardiff City Stadium, with the Bluebirds player converting a chance with just a 5% probability of being scored.
A draw would see the Millers relegated, and they had two minutes plus stoppage time to grab another goal and save themselves.
That was music to the ears of the Owls though, as they were out of the relegation places…for a minute or two at least.
14:17 – Derby make it 3-3
Sheffield Wednesday conceded a penalty at Derby, which was dispatched by Martyn Waghorn, and once again, Derby were in the driving seat.
At 3-3, and with Rotherham drawing and nearly finished, Derby were once again firm favourites to survive, having an 83% chance of doing so.
Sheffield Wednesday only needed another goal in the remaining 10 minutes to keep themselves up.
14:24 – Full-time in Cardiff
All over in Cardiff, with a 1-1 draw condemning Rotherham to relegation. There were still over ten minutes to play at Pride Park.
14:29 – Wednesday needed a goal
Into six minutes of added time at Pride Park, with Sheffield Wednesday needing to score to stay up, and Derby desperate to hold on.
Wayne Rooney’s side were nearly there, with Infogol calculating they had a 93% chance of staying up at that stage.
14:35 – FT at Pride Park
Full-time at Derby, and a 3-3 draw keeps the Rams in the Championship.
Wycombe end up finishing third from bottom, with Sheffield Wednesday propping up the table, as both they and Rotherham head into the third tier of English football.