A night of glorious vindication for Gareth Southgate and everything his England team have stood for.
The supposed company man, faced with incessant criticism for a risk-averse and unimaginative take on the England job, has proved he is the exact opposite. It takes guts, bravery, and indeed imagination to stick resolutely to a battle plan in the face of so much opposition; to calmly craft a purposeful team in the maelstrom of a job that tends to eat people alive.
Four-and-a-half years in the making, England’s 2-0 win over Germany was a tactical masterclass in direct opposition to the desires of an exasperated public. The lesson, one we ought to have learnt by now, is to trust Southgate. The unassuming persona hides a steadfast vision; the slog of the group stage matches a red herring.
England have a plan, and it’s working perfectly. Four clean sheets from four games. An overwhelming emotional weight lifted by beating Germany, and by winning a European Championship knockout game for the first time since 1996.
And now, implausibly, England are favourites, a semi-final and final on home turf waiting if they can beat Ukraine – arguably the weakest team left in the competition.
How England beat Germany
Southgate chose to mirror Germany’s 3-4-3 formation to shut down the dangerous wing-backs that had torn Portugal apart on matchday two and, after a shaky opening ten minutes, it was effective.
Joachim Low’s side had initially dominated against a two-man England midfield as Thomas Muller dropped deep, but Raheem Sterling’s intelligent positioning in the inside left channel provided the Three Lions with a progressive passing option which, coupled with Bukayo Saka’s driving runs, gave the hosts a foothold.
For the next hour it was a stifling game, Southgate’s man-for-man approach to nullifying Germany producing just the kind of dull, secure encounter he had hoped for. And then - with 20 minutes left - Southgate unleashed Jack Grealish to break the lines; disrupt the rhythm; grab the game.
A magnet to defenders, it was Grealish pulling Germany bodies out of position that provided Luke Shaw with the space to overlap and create Sterling’s opener, before the Aston Villa captain assisted for Harry Kane – who also came alive once Grealish’s introduction had yanked Joachim Low’s side into uncomfortable positions.
It was the right strategy carried out to perfection, but in order to beat Ukraine England will need to play in an entirely different way…
Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses
Ukraine are a highly defensive side capable of sitting behind the ball for long periods of time before suddenly exploding forward on the break, a strategy most successful in the unfortunate 3-2 defeat to the Netherlands.
But Frank de Boer’s side were hopelessly porous between the lines throughout Euro 2020, in direct contrast to England, and it seems unlikely Ukraine will manage to break with anything like the efficiency we saw in glimpses against the Netherlands or North Macedonia.
Ukraine’s main strength is their set-pieces – having scored two so far – and the trickery of Andriy Yarmolenko; the West Ham winger scored a brilliant long-range strike against the Netherlands and set up their opener against Sweden with a superb outside-of-the-boot assist.
That individualism, along with Oleksandr Zinchenko’s creativity from midfield, is the only real threat to England.
In theory, this is an easy game for Southgate. Ukraine scraped through the group with three points thanks to a narrow win against North Macedonia and were dominated for long periods by Sweden, a red card changing the game. However, Andriy Shevchenko is tactically flexible and reverted to a surprise 3-5-2 on Tuesday night. He will keep England guessing.
Southgate’s stick or twist
Ukraine’s 3-5-2 might encourage Southgate to again mirror formations and stick with a 3-4-3, but that would most likely be a mistake.
Shevchenko’s side will sit very deep, getting every man behind the ball in a low block and, as such, England must prepare for games similar to those against Scotland and Czech Republic. Forced to dominate possession, England will need to find a way to prise the Ukraine defence apart.
That surely means a 4-2-3-1, the most attacking system England have deployed so far at Euro 2020 and a repeat of the formation that started so strongly against Czech Republic.
Jack Grealish’s ability to draw defenders out of position, plus his capacity for winning set-pieces, makes him arguably England’s most important player – especially after he brought Kane into the tournament on Tuesday evening.
Mason Mount’s buzzing movement between the lines, giving England a progressive pass, will also be important for Southgate, and the England manager needs to bravely push his full-backs high up the pitch to stretch Ukraine out of their shell. With right-winger Yarmolenko the only real threat, England don’t need special defensive preparations.
Nevertheless, Southgate faces a serious selection headache. There is no room for both Grealish and Bukayo Saka, no room for both Phil Foden and Mount. At the back Kieran Trippier and Kyle Walker could be sacrificed for the bolder choice of Reece James, while more generally Southgate may feel the pull of another cautious performance in a defensive 3-4-3.
He must resist that urge.
In a strange way, England may have preferred a more difficult quarter-final opponent. The confidence boost of that perfect game-plan calls for its continuation, and yet England must now revert back to the aesthetic of that clumsy, awkward group stage. That is, perhaps, a slightly worrying thought for England supporters.
But the knot in the stomach is a little looser this time. Southgate has asked for us to trust the process. We have no reason to doubt him.