Sporting Life
Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi

Lionel Messi: LaLiga return, Messi's changing Barcelona role and the stats behind it

By Paul Macdonald
Football
Mon June 08, 2020 · 4y ago

Lionel Messi has scored more than 600 goals for Barcelona during a 16-year spell at Camp Nou that has seen him become the greatest player of all of time. As his 33rd birthday approaches, Football Critic's Paul Macdonald looks at the stats behind Messi's changing role and why his performances alone should clinch Barca the title.

It feels like we have been robbed of three months of Lionel Messi.

With the Argentine turning 33 next month, every minute that the greatest player ever has on the pitch before time catches up with him should be cherished and, mercifully, it appears as if LaLiga will be back in June to allow Messi to treat us once more.

Because, despite injury concerns, coaching changes and a noticeable decrease in the quality of this Barcelona team compared to some recent incarnations, Messi’s numbers remain spectacular, but also a little different.

For example, in the past Messi’s expected assists total didn’t always line up with the actual number of assists he provided, suggesting that team-mates were wasteful with the chances he created.

His xA P90 in 17/18 was 0.45 but his assists P90 just 0.29, while last season xA P90 was 0.5 versus an actual of 0.43. But in 2019/20 his much-maligned team-mates have provided him with an assists P90 total of 0.57 - twice as high as 2017/18, against an xA of 0.47.

In short, this year his players have got better at putting away the chances he creates and as a result he has the most assists in LaLiga by a distance (12), and his 0.57 assists P90 is the sixth-highest total in Europe’s top five leagues.

While his assists total is special, his non-penalty goals have regressed ever so slightly. His non-pen goals P90 in 19/20 is 0.76, quite a drop from his superhuman 1.06 in 2018/19 and still a drop from 17/18 (0.96). This is also reflected in his expected goals. 0.72 P90 this season versus 0.87 P90 last.

Messi’s not dropping off, he’s changing.

He is allegedly a convert to expected goals and the idea of getting into better positions before shooting, and we can see a development along this path.

In LaLiga his shots P90 have fallen from 5.9 P90 to 5 P90, but his shot accuracy has increased slightly (49% to 52%) as has his conversion rate (17.3% to 18.1%). The changes are nuanced but it definitely points to more consideration of where and when to shoot.

His non-pen goal contribution P90 of 1.33 is still third in Europe behind young guns Jadon Sancho and Kylian Mbappe, but while we praise his team-mates for converting more of the chances he creates, their own lack of creativity forces Messi to put on both hats. The next closest assistant is his long-time ally Luis Suarez on seven, and he has been injured since mid-January. After that, Antoine Griezmann - hugely disappointing so far since his move to Camp Nou - has four.

Barcelona have long feared what the Spanish press call 'Messidependencia' and have taken numerous actions to offset it. Neymar was the first attempt of course, and a largely successful one until PSG came calling. But the cash generated by the Brazilian has been squandered, blowing nearly £350m in the bargain.

It’s unlikely Philippe Coutinho will play for the club again after being offloaded to Bayern on loan following a season where he failed to meet expectations. Ousmane Dembele is talented but permanently injured, and Griezmann still seems in awe of Messi and is, unfortunately, occupying quite a lot of the same spaces. Barcelona’s problem is that it’s very difficult for a Messi replacement to thrive until Messi is gone - and only he will decide exactly when that is.

So until that time, we now have the clearest indication of what an older Messi at Barcelona will look like, a dual operator who wants to provide the pass but also wants to be on the end of it. It has always been this way but now more than ever it’s the dynamic.

And there doesn’t seem to be a way out. Suarez may be returning to fitness but he’s now 33. At the other end of the scale, Ansu Fati is just 17 and needs mentoring, not pressurising. In behind, Ivan Rakitic will likely leave, Arthur’s role isn’t clear yet and Frenkie De Jong has been bought for big money to play in a different position to the one he is used to. Barca’s team is dysfunctional at best.

But in a LaLiga season that’s been low on quality so far, Messi’s continued genius may prove enough to get them over the line once again - which would mean five of the last six titles going to Camp Nou.

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