Liverpool v Arsenal preview & tips: Alex Keble's tactical preview & best bets for Monday Night Football clash at Anfield

Arsenal can lay down a marker for the 2020/21 campaign and put themselves among the favourites for a top four finish with victory at Anfield on Monday night, and although Liverpool are unbeaten on home soil since April 2017 that result is not out of the question. Jurgen Klopp’s side have lost each of their last two meetings with the Gunners. The Mikel Arteta revolution is taking shape.

The manner of their back-to-back wins, the first a 2-1 victory in the league at the Emirates and the second on penalties in the Community Shield, gives us a strong indication of how the next instalment of a burgeoning rivalry will go. It is too early to suggest Arsenal are a bogey team for the champions, but there is little doubt Arteta has a knack for exploiting flaws in Jurgen Klopp’s system. Klopp versus Arteta is fast becoming the Premier League’s best tactical battle.

Arsenal’s template for beating Liverpool

The most important feature of Arteta’s tactics from the win in mid-July was his aggressive high press, an approach that few favour when up against Liverpool. Chelsea, for example, sat deep last weekend and allowed Klopp’s men to gradually grind them into submission, reflecting Frank Lampard’s inability to coach compression between the lines and engage a pressing system without leaving huge gaps in the transition.

By contrast, Arteta’s Guardiola-inspired press is diligently organised and has been known to unsettle Liverpool’s players. In the 2-1 at the Emirates, mistakes from Virgil van Dijk and Alisson supposedly ‘gifted’ the Gunners the points, when in fact both errors were forced. In the first instance Van Dijk had nobody to pass to because the Arsenal forwards had man-marked every option, leading to hesitation and concession of the ball. In the second, Alexandre Lacazette was extremely quick to pounce on a semi-loose pass from the Liverpool goalkeeper.

Liverpool are so good at evading a high press, and then counter-attacking into the spaces it leaves in the opposition third, that few teams now even attempt to push up. That means they are unprepared for the rare occasion when a club like Arsenal not only attempt it, but do so with a tactical sophistication that doesn’t leave them open. More mistakes, then, could occur at Anfield on Monday.

Why Saka & Tierney hold the key

Once thing that clearly separates Arteta from his tutor at Manchester City is his desire to play with incision, encouraging high-tempo vertical passes for willing runners in behind. He is keen to avoid static possession, and while he is yet to fully realise that goal the example Leeds United set on the opening day suggests he can apply significant pressure to Liverpool.

Finding Lacazette, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and Willian as they make runs in behind Liverpool’s high line will first require finding space somewhere between the lines. That should happen on Arsenal’s left flank, where Bukayo Saka (or Ainsley Maitland-Niles) and Kieran Tierney hold the key to unlocking the Liverpool defence.

Arteta has instigated a clever hybrid 3-4-3/4-3-3 formation this season, fluidly moving between the two by instructing left centre-back Tierney to move wide (mimicking Chris Wilder’s overlapping centre-back strategy) and the left wing-back to cut infield and become part of a midfield three. Many an opponent has been bamboozled by this movement.

Liverpool’s narrowness means right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold, if not caught ahead of the play, receives little support from his team-mates. Jordan Henderson is expected to work that flank while Mohamed Salah stays up front, and so with Tierney, Saka, and Aubameyang (making diagonal runs infield) shifting positions to create triangles on the left flank, Liverpool could be overwhelmed.

How Thiago can aid Liverpool

But Liverpool remain firm favourites for obvious reasons. They have not been beaten on home soil for over three years, but perhaps equally significantly this time they have a new weapon to out-fox Arteta. Thiago Alcantara’s silky presence in central midfield ought to lead to even more measured control, and an even greater ability to outmanoeuvre the Arsenal press.

With the former Bayern Munich midfielder dropping deep from Liverpool goal kicks, Van Dijk is far less likely to be guilty of a defensive error. Thiago’s technical ability and passing range should ensure he is a safe out-ball even when under pressure, theoretically wearing Arsenal down and forcing them into a gradual territorial retreat. From there, it is almost impossible to stop Liverpool.

Once camped in the opposition half the attacking lines they deploy are too various to shut down, from those flying full-backs whipping in crosses to the front three tearing holes in central defence to Thiago threading balls through the smallest of gaps. Liverpool fans are yet to see the damage the Spaniard can do in the final third. Monday’s game might be the first time his full range is revealed to them.

Klopp’s in-game changes

And there is always the possibility that, on home soil, the mismatch between Liverpool’s front three and the Arsenal defenders will be more pronounced. Rob Holding continues to look shaky - and flat-footed - when isolated one-on-one, making his battle against Sadio Mane one the Senegalese will expect to win. Similarly, Roberto Firmino’s movement should pull David Luiz out of position (he rarely needs a second invitation to leave the back line) and create space for Salah.

Back Mane to score anytime at 23/20

Then again, Arsenal’s 3-4-3 may be able to limit Liverpool, just as Wolves and Sheffield United kept the score down last year; by using three centre-backs, Arteta can go man-to-man with those narrow Liverpool forwards to free his wing-backs to push up and shut down Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson. But in this scenario, Klopp’s in-game formation changes can ensure Liverpool still win three points.

For the final 30 minutes of the Community Shield Klopp switched to a 4-2-3-1 formation with Firmino and Salah dove-tailing up front and Takumi Minamino on the left wing, and from that point on Liverpool held 65% possession and put the Arsenal goal under pressure. This system worked primarily because Arsenal’s 3-4-3 only reliably has two players in the middle of the park, making them vulnerable to an extra attacker roaming in the number ten space.

Liverpool are clearly still favourites for this game, and yet we are approaching the point at which Arsenal are the best equipped team in the league to end their unbeaten home run. It will be an intense tactical battle and, unlike pretty much every other game at Anfield, could genuinely swing either way.

Back double chance Arsenal/draw at 13/8

Odds correct at 1500 BST (24/09/20)

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