Michael Beardmore has a preview and best bets as West Ham host Aston Villa in a 'claret and blue' derby in the Monday Night Football.
Recommended bets
2pt West Ham to win and under 4.5 goals at 15/8
1pt Jarrod Bowen to score first at 7/1
1pt Aston Villa 7+ corners at 3/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
West Ham v Aston Villa
- 20:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 13/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 19/10
The Premier League’s most recognisable claret and blue sides – sorry, Burnley fans – square up in a fascinating Monday Night Football clash at the London Stadium.
It is a game, of course, that holds somewhat less significance than when Aston Villa visited West Ham in July and secured Premier League survival with a 1-1 draw on the final day of last season.
Things have changed for the better for both teams since – the Hammers struggled last term too – and they sit a point apart in the top flight’s top half after pleasing starts.
It’s Villa who are perched just above their hosts, and with a game in hand too, and Dean Smith’s men will be delighted to be on the road again as they have proven happy travellers so far this campaign.
They have won all three of their Premier League away games without conceding a goal – triumphing 3-0 at both Arsenal and Fulham as well as edging out Leicester 1-0 in an impressive array of results.
By contrast, at Villa Park, they have lost their last three to Brighton, Southampton and Leeds, although they did precede those results with an unforgettable 7-2 humbling of champions Liverpool.
But West Ham’s home form is pretty decent too – yes, they lost to Newcastle in their opener but they hammered Wolves 4-0 and impressed in a 1-1 draw with Manchester City. In fact, if you look at their recent record, the Irons have been mightily impressive for the past few weeks, somewhat going under the radar.
They were unlucky to lose 2-1 at both Arsenal and Liverpool, held City, won 3-0 at Leicester, and came from three down to draw at Spurs. Add the recent, hard-fought 1-0 wins against struggling Fulham and Sheffield United, and David Moyes’ men are proving they can put points on the board in different ways.
I much prefer the way they have consistently produced results to ‘hot and cold’ Villa, especially when you factor in the hamstring injury that will keep Ross Barkley out of this encounter.
While he’s not been as lauded as Jack Grealish, the former Everton and Chelsea midfielder has been influential in Villa’s exciting start and he will be a big miss against a team that is tough to break down.
West Ham, meanwhile, could welcome back talisman attacker Michail Antonio from a similar injury and I fancy them to end Villa’s impressive away run.
While you can get a decent 27/20 on a Hammers victory, I’m instead opting for a home win and under 4.5 goals at 15/8 with Sky Bet. Knock a goal off and it's 5/2 if you fancy extra value but I'm playing it safe with a Villa defence that has a record of imploding when they concede one.
Turning to the goalscorer markets, I like former Hull forward Jarrod Bowen to net first at 7/1 with bet365. Bowen banged goals in for fun in the Sky Bet Championship and is beginning to find his feet in the top flight.
Whether the Hammers ease Antonio back off the bench or not, Bowen remains one of their chief attacking options and he already has three goals to his name this season.
They came in successive games against Wolves and Leicester in September and October but he had chances to score in both wins over Fulham and the Blades and looks slightly overpriced. He has had eight shots across those two recent games and will surely find the net again soon.
However this game ends up going, Villa have shown they will give it a go this season. They are no shrinking violets and that is reflected in their corner count: 59 in eight games. That’s the joint highest in the Premier League, alongside Liverpool – and the Reds have played a game more.
In their past five games, Villa have recorded corner counts of 12, 8, 11, 6 and 7. They are 3/1 to win 7+ corners at West Ham, a total they have surpassed in their past two away games at Arsenal (8) and Leicester (7).
It looks a good play, especially at that price.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bets:
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